My take on Florida's Legislative races in 2010 (Part 3: House HD's 81-120)

[Mississippi Political Freak]

Here is my analysis on 2010's Florida State House races in South Florida:

HD-81 (GOP Target) and HD-83 (Dem Target)

In this pair of Treasure Coast/Northern Palm Beach swing seats, both Dems (incumbent Rep. Adam Fetterman in HD-81 and open-seat challeger Mark Marciano in HD83) are well-funded.  In HD-81, however, the foreclosure crisis seems to enable the rise of Tea Party sentiment and former State Rep. Gayle Harrell was able to capitalize on the GOP lean of the Martin County portion to regain her old seat, inflicting one of the only 2 double-digit defeats among the 5 Dem incumbent ousted (Only Debbie Boyd's margin of loss is larger)

In HD-83 vacated by Carl Domino due to his unsuccessful SD-25 GOP primary candidacy, the GOP candidate Pat Rooney is independently wealthy.  Hailing from the family owning Pittsburgh Steelers and being a brother of US Rep. Tom Rooney from CD-16 (which overlaps with parts of HD-83) don't hurt either, and all these translates into a easy GOP hold.

HD's 87 and 91 (Dem Targets)

These marginal coastal Palm Beach-Broward seats are supposedly ripe for Dems' pickling in open-seat situations.  However, the Dem's frequent change of candidates in HD-87 (due to the pursuit of neighboring, more Democratic HD86 by their original challenger Lori Berman; arising from Ted Deutsch election to CD-19 and Maria Sach's ascent to SD-30); coupled with an experienced GOP candidate (former Boca Raton City Councilman Bill Hager); translates this into another easy GOP hold.

In HD91, while both GOPer George Moraitis and Dem Barbra Anne Stern are political newcomers and serious candidates, the coattails from CD-22 and SD-25 proved to be enough for Moraitis to breeze through.

HD's 112, 115, 117, 119 (Dem Targets)

Any path for the Dems to achieve relative parity with the GOP in the State House runs through open Hispanic-held seats in Miami Dade County; and they have to bank on generational shifts among Cuban Americans, as younger Cubans may be less obsessed with hard-line policies on Cuba and more focused on economic justice issues faced by many Hispanics.  In last November, Marco Rubio's US Senate candidacy seems to cause these Democratic efforts to become naught, as he seems to cause the Hispanic voter turnout in Miami Dade to tilt older, Cuban and more conservative.

At least in HD-112, the Dems has a candidate with elected experience in Doral City Councilwoman Sandra Ruiz, and she actually carried the Broward portion of the district.  However, her GOP opponent Jeanette Nunez dominated in the far more populous Miami Dade portion of this HD by about 2-1 and carried the day by the virtue of this margin.

Lisa Lesperance in HD-117 is decently funded, but she runs in one of the most Republican Hispanic district outside Hialeah, and GOPer Michael Bileca held the seat vacated by Julio Robaina easily.  The same can be said for Jeffrey "Doc" Solomon in HD-115, plus he has an ethnicity problem by running as a white candidate in a 65% Hispanic (2000 census figure) district, allowing Jose Felix Diaz to breeze through as the GOP candidate.

The most heart-breaking loss among these Democratic offensive efforts falls to Katie Edwards, a youthful executive director of the Dade County Farm Bureau.  She ran a well-funded campaign in the least Hispanic and least Republican seats held by a Hispanic GOP Rep (HD-119).  However, she also ran into ethnicity problem in a 64.5% Hispanic district (2000 figures)  by being a white candidate, allowing GOPer Frank Artiles to succeed Juan Zapata, the first Colombian-American in the Florida State House.

HD's 107 and 120 (GOP Targets)

Former State Rep. Gustavo A. Barreiro falls barely short in his effort to wrest his old seat from his successor, incumbent Dem Rep. Luis Garcia.  Garcia is probably saved by his least Republican Hispanic-Majority HD in Miami Dade, his extensive civic bonds in Miami Beach and his Cuban ethnicity.

The GOP tried to claim the scalp of the incoming Democratic leader Ron Saunders with former Key West Mayor Morgan J. McPherson.  Their efforts falls well short, as Saunders carried Monroe County handily even though he lost the Miami Dade County portion.  His political savvy from his previous service at the State House also helps.

Conclusion:

It seems that in the recession-plagued Sunshine State, fiscal issues and job creation are in the forefront of voters' minds, and the average Florida suburbanite's anti-tax and pro-business sensibilities seem to prevail over concerns about the anti-immigration, service-cutting and socially conservative rhetorics form November's crop of GOP legislative candidates, giving the GOP veto-proof majorities for the 1st time since Reconstruction.  

My only complaints are that voters seems to be ignorant to hypocritical when it comes to check and balance; as they seem to exercise that desire only against the party they oppose (National Dems) and see no problems when the party they favor dominates at the state and/or local level (Florida's GOP) for more than a decade.  Can anyone explain this irony?

Hope that you will enjoy my analysis.  Thanks!