The results of Obamanomics
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WillK
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« Reply #75 on: May 27, 2011, 08:41:20 AM »

The three categories aggregate difference amounts to 2,849,000.  So, if we are to believe the adjustment bureau, the reduction in the civilian labor force is NOT some demographic driven factor as you suggest.

Looking at the data you presented a few posts ago, there has been a 4,111,000 increase in the Civilian noninstitutional population (16+)  and a 1,451,000 decrease in the Civilian Labor Force.   That means that the Civilian population Not in the Labor Force has increased by 5,562,000.   

Yet the three categories you mentioned above only add up to 2,849,000.  So how are you going to explain the other 2,713,000 added to the population Not in the labor force?   
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Mopsus
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« Reply #76 on: May 27, 2011, 05:20:59 PM »

The problem with the funny stagflation theory is that we're still in severe deflation.
How so?
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opebo
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« Reply #77 on: May 29, 2011, 04:29:50 PM »

The problem with the funny stagflation theory is that we're still in severe deflation.
How so?

Property's falling.
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Mopsus
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« Reply #78 on: May 29, 2011, 04:46:01 PM »

The problem with the funny stagflation theory is that we're still in severe deflation.
How so?

Property's falling.
Is that the only measure of inflation?
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #79 on: May 31, 2011, 10:33:05 AM »

The three categories aggregate difference amounts to 2,849,000.  So, if we are to believe the adjustment bureau, the reduction in the civilian labor force is NOT some demographic driven factor as you suggest.

Looking at the data you presented a few posts ago, there has been a 4,111,000 increase in the Civilian noninstitutional population (16+)  and a 1,451,000 decrease in the Civilian Labor Force.   That means that the Civilian population Not in the Labor Force has increased by 5,562,000.   

Yet the three categories you mentioned above only add up to 2,849,000.  So how are you going to explain the other 2,713,000 added to the population Not in the labor force?   

Will,

You really should read more carefully.

As I noted, "if you believe the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

To put it in simpler terms, I don't believe the BLS numbers, but rather presented them as even they disagree with you assertion that the drop in the Civilian Labor Force is some kind of foreordained matter.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #80 on: May 31, 2011, 10:38:03 AM »

Consumer confidence falls unexpectedly in May

Consumer Confidence Index drops unexpectedly to 6-month low in May; gas, job worries persist

NEW YORK (AP) -- Americans are losing faith that the economy will keep improving, according to a monthly survey.

http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/news-forum/index?tab=articles
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #81 on: June 01, 2011, 06:41:26 AM »

MAY 17, 2011

Construction, Manufacturing Fall

BY ALAN ZIBEL AND JEFF BATER

U.S. home construction fell unexpectedly in April, an indication that the troubled sector will remain a drag on the economic recovery.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703421204576328980598765642.html

-----

I really love the use of the term "unexpectedly" in economic news. 


NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE   
       
Michael Barone

May 30, 2011

Unexpectedly!

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/268370
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #82 on: June 01, 2011, 07:29:45 AM »

Private employers added a meager 38,000 jobs in May

Downbeat ADP data seen as bellwether for government’s monthly jobs report

NEW YORK — U.S. private employers added a meager 38,000 jobs in May, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43234997/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

Now, don't fret too much little obamanations.

The 'adjustment bureau' will produce more favorable numbers (somehow), soon.

Or, at least, less unfavorable.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #83 on: June 02, 2011, 08:40:18 AM »

Now let me see.
The all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose at a 6.1-percent seasonally adjusted annual rate during the first quarter of 2011.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/focus/volume2_number3/cpi_2_3.htm#price_trends
and the gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2011.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

So, the ‘growth’ rate after inflation is…?
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CitizenX
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« Reply #84 on: June 02, 2011, 06:22:14 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2011, 06:23:55 PM by CitizenX »

Housing Starts See Biggest Drop Since 1984

Published: Wednesday, 16 Mar 2011

Reuters

U.S. housing starts posted their biggest decline in 27 years in February while building permits dropped to their lowest level on record, suggesting the beleaguered real estate sector has yet to rebound from its deepest slump in modern history.

Wholesale prices rise 1.6 pct. due to biggest jump in food costs in more than 36 years

The Associated Press, Wednesday, March 16

WASHINGTON — Wholesale prices jumped last month by the most in nearly two years due to higher energy costs and the steepest rise in food prices in 36 years.


14 straight months of private sector job growth under Obama.  Interestingly you missed that statistic.  You don't think JOBS are important when analyzing the economy?  I don't think you should be giving economics lectures.


This is not a meaningful discussion if you are only going to analyze the negative statistics when we are coming out of the worst recession we've had since the Great Depression.  I don't care who is in the White House the housing market is NOT going to "recover" to its previous heights.  I didn't hear any of you Republicans complaining that Pets.com didn't get back to its heights under the Clinton administration.  Let me introduce you to the concept of an ASSET BUBBLE.  House prices should NEVER have been that high.  If they were to get that high again under Obama I would say that he isn't doing his job.  That was not a healthy level for the market.  If you're underwater on your mortgage I'm sorry, but you should have done more due diligence.  Its not up to Obama to fix your greedy mistake.

And what's up with the food prices?!  We're the fattest country in the world.  Are you really struggling because of food prices?  Are you starving?
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #85 on: June 03, 2011, 01:47:56 AM »

Well, CitizenX,first,  its nice to see an Obama supporter openly being happy about rising food costs.

Second, don't know of any "greedy mistake" I supposedly made for Obama to fix.  I'll just put that down to your ignorance.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #86 on: June 03, 2011, 06:46:04 AM »

Now let me see.
The all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose at a 6.1-percent seasonally adjusted annual rate during the first quarter of 2011.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/focus/volume2_number3/cpi_2_3.htm#price_trends
and the gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2011.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

So, the ‘growth’ rate after inflation is…?


Well, someone met my challenge for a little mathematical exercise.

“If we use CPI as the deflator to compute Real GDP, we see series with a significantly lower mean, higher volatility, and Q1 Real GDP at a stunningly negative -1.3%.”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/273136-will-the-real-gdp-please-stand-up
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #87 on: June 03, 2011, 07:49:10 AM »

WASHINGTON | Fri Jun 3, 2011

(Reuters) - Employment rose far less than expected in May to record its weakest reading since September, while the jobless rate rose to 9.1 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/03/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7492P720110603
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opebo
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« Reply #88 on: June 03, 2011, 02:21:40 PM »

WASHINGTON | Fri Jun 3, 2011

(Reuters) - Employment rose far less than expected in May to record its weakest reading since September, while the jobless rate rose to 9.1 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/03/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7492P720110603


The only possible rationale which follows from your alarum is to apply large scale Keynesian redistribution and government takeover of the economy.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #89 on: June 03, 2011, 02:43:56 PM »

Is that the only measure of inflation?

Problem is if you're poor, falling property values doesn't do much good for you compared to skyrocketing gas and goods prices.
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CitizenX
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« Reply #90 on: June 03, 2011, 05:19:07 PM »

WASHINGTON | Fri Jun 3, 2011

(Reuters) - Employment rose far less than expected in May to record its weakest reading since September, while the jobless rate rose to 9.1 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/03/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7492P720110603


14 straight months of private sector job growth.
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CitizenX
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« Reply #91 on: June 03, 2011, 05:28:22 PM »
« Edited: June 03, 2011, 05:51:47 PM by CitizenX »

Well, CitizenX,first, its nice to see an Obama supporter openly being happy about rising food costs.

Second, don't know of any "greedy mistake" I supposedly made for Obama to fix.  I'll just put that down to your ignorance.

Bush starts a war and sends gas prices into the stratosphere.  He then proceeds to blow a Trillion+ dollars on the aforementioned pointless war while Republicans say nothing, and now... only now you're outraged because food prices in the richest fattest country on earth have gone up?  How much food does $1 Trillion+ buy?

I smell an agenda?  Anybody else getting that feeling?

Here's Obamnomics 101, son...



A picture is worth a thousand words.  You just got RUINED my friend.
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opebo
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« Reply #92 on: June 03, 2011, 05:32:21 PM »

Well he actually came to use 'ruined', but still its good give him a good kicking around.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #93 on: June 04, 2011, 01:41:02 AM »

WASHINGTON | Fri Jun 3, 2011

(Reuters) - Employment rose far less than expected in May to record its weakest reading since September, while the jobless rate rose to 9.1 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/03/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7492P720110603


14 straight months of private sector job growth.


Please keep it up!

You're almost as funny as Opebo!
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #94 on: June 04, 2011, 01:49:09 AM »

Well, CitizenX,first, its nice to see an Obama supporter openly being happy about rising food costs.

Second, don't know of any "greedy mistake" I supposedly made for Obama to fix.  I'll just put that down to your ignorance.

Bush starts a war and sends gas prices into the stratosphere.  


Thanks for bringing up the gas prices matter.

Here's a comparison:

5/302011     $3.794
1/19/2009      1.832

http://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html

So, gasoline prices are more than double what they were under Bush.

Hmm.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #95 on: June 04, 2011, 03:44:16 AM »

Jobs fail

Jun 3, 2011 08:50 EDT

Reuters

Felix Salmon

JUN 3, 2011

“ it turns out that the government’s statisticians were overly optimistic for the past couple of months: the payrolls numbers for March and April were revised downwards by 39,000 jobs.”

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/06/03/jobs-fail/
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CitizenX
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« Reply #96 on: June 06, 2011, 06:46:03 AM »

Jobs fail

Jun 3, 2011 08:50 EDT

Reuters

Felix Salmon

JUN 3, 2011

“ it turns out that the government’s statisticians were overly optimistic for the past couple of months: the payrolls numbers for March and April were revised downwards by 39,000 jobs.”

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/06/03/jobs-fail/


By following preliminary month to month jobs numbers and ignoring the overall job market trend this tells me that you have never worked in an industry that actually uses economic data.  You simply do not know what to do with it.

Furthermore you are totally unfamiliar with the fact that as optimism increases amongst discouraged workers the jobless rate paradoxically goes UP.  This is a good thing.

You have to step back and look at the big picture... which I kindly provided.  If you like Mitt Romney look at that graph and say that Obama is a complete failure then we can safely ignore you too because you obviously have a partisan agenda.

There is no way to know where the economy will be in six months.  We may be adding 100,000s of jobs a month or we may be in a double dip recession.  But right here right now looking in the rear view mirror Obama smoked Bush and I wake up every day and thank God that McCain and Palin aren't running the economy.
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WillK
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« Reply #97 on: June 06, 2011, 09:53:40 AM »

The three categories aggregate difference amounts to 2,849,000.  So, if we are to believe the adjustment bureau, the reduction in the civilian labor force is NOT some demographic driven factor as you suggest.

Looking at the data you presented a few posts ago, there has been a 4,111,000 increase in the Civilian noninstitutional population (16+)  and a 1,451,000 decrease in the Civilian Labor Force.   That means that the Civilian population Not in the Labor Force has increased by 5,562,000.   

Yet the three categories you mentioned above only add up to 2,849,000.  So how are you going to explain the other 2,713,000 added to the population Not in the labor force?   

Will,

You really should read more carefully.

As I noted, "if you believe the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

To put it in simpler terms, I don't believe the BLS numbers, but rather presented them as even they disagree with you assertion that the drop in the Civilian Labor Force is some kind of foreordained matter.

Actually, as presented, they did agree with my assertion, as I pointed out.

Our back and forth started becuase you claimed that a rational person would not expect there to be any drop in the labor force.  However, as I point out with links, a leveling off and likely drop in the labor force was being predicted years ago. 
 
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WillK
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« Reply #98 on: June 06, 2011, 10:01:48 AM »

Well, CitizenX,first, its nice to see an Obama supporter openly being happy about rising food costs.

Second, don't know of any "greedy mistake" I supposedly made for Obama to fix.  I'll just put that down to your ignorance.

Bush starts a war and sends gas prices into the stratosphere.  


Thanks for bringing up the gas prices matter.

Here's a comparison:

5/302011     $3.794
1/19/2009      1.832

http://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html

So, gasoline prices are more than double what they were under Bush.

Hmm.


Try comparing May 2008 with May 2011.

hhhmmmmm. 
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #99 on: June 06, 2011, 10:33:31 AM »

Jobs fail

Jun 3, 2011 08:50 EDT

Reuters

Felix Salmon

JUN 3, 2011

“ it turns out that the government's statisticians were overly optimistic for the past couple of months: the payrolls numbers for March and April were revised downwards by 39,000 jobs.”

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/06/03/jobs-fail/


By following preliminary month to month jobs numbers and ignoring the overall job market trend this tells me that you have never worked in an industry that actually uses economic data.  You simply do not know what to do with it.

Furthermore you are totally unfamiliar with the fact that as optimism increases amongst discouraged workers the jobless rate paradoxically goes UP.  This is a good thing.

You have to step back and look at the big picture... which I kindly provided.  If you like Mitt Romney look at that graph and say that Obama is a complete failure then we can safely ignore you too because you obviously have a partisan agenda.

There is no way to know where the economy will be in six months.  We may be adding 100,000s of jobs a month or we may be in a double dip recession.  But right here right now looking in the rear view mirror Obama smoked Bush and I wake up every day and thank God that McCain and Palin aren't running the economy.

First, so are you trying to say the "overall job market trend" is good?

Second, are you trying to allege that the reason for the increase in the unemployment rate in April and May was because of an increase in optimism among the unemployed?

Third, I despise Romney and will continue to note the multitude of failures of the Obama regime.

Fourth, finally you got one correct.  There is no way to "know" exactly what the shape of the economy will be in six months.  However, I cannot think of anyone (with you as a possible exception) who believes that the U-3 unemployment rate will be under 8.0% in six months.
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