The results of Obamanomics

[CARLHAYDEN]

Housing Starts See Biggest Drop Since 1984

Published: Wednesday, 16 Mar 2011

Reuters

U.S. housing starts posted their biggest decline in 27 years in February while building permits dropped to their lowest level on record, suggesting the beleaguered real estate sector has yet to rebound from its deepest slump in modern history.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42106368


Wholesale prices rise 1.6 pct. due to biggest jump in food costs in more than 36 years

The Associated Press, Wednesday, March 16

WASHINGTON — Wholesale prices jumped last month by the most in nearly two years due to higher energy costs and the steepest rise in food prices in 36 years.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wholesale-prices-rise-16-pct-due-to-biggest-jump-in-food-costs-in-more-than-36-years/2011/03/16/ABpLKcd_story.html

[CARLHAYDEN]

Update:

March consumer sentiment lowest in over a year

 NEW YORK | Fri Mar 25, 2011
 (Reuters) - Consumer sentiment in March fell to its lowest level in more than a year as gasoline and food prices rose, a survey released on Friday showed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/25/us-usa-economy-sentiment-idUSTRE71O3RO20110325

[CARLHAYDEN]

And what influence over gas prices does Obamanomics (as silly a term as Reaganomics) have?  The current spike in energy prices has nothing to do with domestic economic policy whatsoever.

First, Obama has opposed development of domestic energy resources.

Second, Obama has opposed development of new (more efficent) refineries.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Exactly, Obama can do very little to control inflation, especially when there's international factors affecting gas prices.

Sorry, but you are confusing cause and effect.

Rising prices are a result of inflation.

Inflation is the relationship between the money supply and goods and services available.

Take a look at the federal budgets (and deficits) under Obama.

The Federal Reserve has been dumping money into the economy to cover the deficit.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Exactly, Obama can do very little to control inflation, especially when there's international factors affecting gas prices.

Sorry, but you are confusing cause and effect.

Rising prices are a result of inflation.

Inflation is the relationship between the money supply and goods and services available.

Take a look at the federal budgets (and deficits) under Obama.

The Federal Reserve has been dumping money into the economy to cover the deficit.

a) Thank you, being a total imbecile I had no idea what inflation was... however, inflation isn't some ogre running around putting prices up... it's both a chicken and egg proposal. Per example... in Australia we had long-running drought which led to increases in the wholesale prices of lamb, wheat, milk etc etc - those factors increased the headline inflation rate. Inflation doesn't cause the price to rise on it's own, the external and internal factors caused fluctuations to the inflation rate - so inflation is a REFLECTION of price increases caused by other factors.

b) the federal reserve has nothing to do with Obama, since it's an independent regulatory authority. 

No, " inflation isn't some ogre running around putting prices up," its a (relative) increase in the money supply relative to the amount of goods and services in the economy.

Now, price increases (or decreases) can occur for reasons other than inflation (shortage or glut of particular product/services relative to demand).  This cover's the "drought" to which you refer with respect to food prices.  However, as important as they are, food prices are not the entire economy, and increases in food prices may be offset by decreases in other parts of the economy.

In conclusion, price increases across the economy are the result of inflation, not a reflection!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Instant View: Consumer confidence falls in March

NEW YORK | Tue Mar 29, 2011

 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell in March after hitting a three-year high in the prior month as expectations about jobs and income growth worsened, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday.

KEY POINTS: * The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 63.4 in March from a revised 72.0 in February. The median of forecasts from analysts polled by Reuters was for a reading of 65.0.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/29/us-usa-economy-instant-idUSTRE72S3PI20110329

[CARLHAYDEN]

Gasoline up 100% under Obama

Gas prices have doubled since Mr. Obama took office.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/watercooler/2011/mar/30/gas-prices-double-under-obama/

[CARLHAYDEN]

On an inflation adjusted basis, the last tie we had a sustained period with gasoline prices this high was Reagan's first term.  Not only that the historical average in 2010 dollars for the period 1918 to 2010 is $2.39.  As bad as prices have gotten, they still haven't returned to their July 2008 average of $4.00 per gallon.  Nor is the current instability in Libya and the Middle East that are causing the current spike in prices due to Obama. But don't let facts confuse you Carl.  They seemingly never do.

(source used for the facts above)

You are the one who is confused.

I posted the source for the assertion.

You merely continue your assertions the Obama is blameless.

Oh, and gasoline is over $4.00 a gallon in California.

Oh, and here's something from ABC:

The weekly national average gas price showed the highest price ever during the month of March and the seventh consecutive increase this week, according to the Department of Energy.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/gas-prices-7th-consecutive-weekly-increase-middle-east/story?id=13240889

[CARLHAYDEN]

Ernest,

Don't you EVER feel a little embarrassed in constantly flacking for Obama?

Now, I abide by the rules which require that I link to an article rather than posting it.

You merely make assertions that Obama is completely blameless.

To you, there can NEVER be any reason why Obama can ever be wrong!  Its what makes you so unreasonable. 

Finally, you misrepresent my position.  I have NEVER suggested that government policies can "make everything a utopia."  However, unlike you, I can recognize when such policies create a disaster.

[CARLHAYDEN]

CARL, you seem to think that anyone who thinks that Obama isn't to blame for everything must believe he is blameless, just as you believe that anyone who doesn't agree with your opinions on how best to secure the border must believe that the border should be unguarded.  You express a point of view that is very black and white with no shades of gray and in which you are the defender of a small pinprick of white in a vast sea of black.

Ernestm I think whereas you believe (in Obama).

So far all you have had to say is to defend Obama on everything, without, I note, citing sources and data!

Also, you have suggested NOTHING about securing the border other than criticisms of each and every effort in that area.  So, please provide your example of border security you supposedly support.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Also, you have suggested NOTHING about securing the border other than criticisms of each and every effort in that area.  So, please provide your example of border security you supposedly support.

To begin with, your emphasis is in the wrong place CARL.  If we're going to get control of the borders, our primary focus needs to be not on fences and the like, but on dealing with the reasons why people want to cross the border illegally in the first place.

1. Employment
An expanded and improved E-Verify system along with an improved passport-quality Social Security Card.  While the government had liked to pretend that Social Security Cards and Numbers aren't to be used for purposes of identification, that ship has long past sailed from port.  That'll help deal with the cheats, but we also need to considerably expand legal immigration, both permanent and temporary.  For instance, I'd like to see the number of professions and people for which a TN visa can be obtained considerably increased.  For example, the Teamsters wouldn't like it, but a TN visa for Mexican or Canadian truck drivers that meet the standards required to obtain a CDL would be fine with me.

2. Drugs
My concern here isn't what happens at the borders, but if we had a rational drug policy, we'd eliminate a lot of the demand for smuggling.  To be clear, marijuana, opiates, and cocaine should be legalized for adult usage just as alcohol and tobacco.  The common denominator for all five drugs is that they originate as agricultural products and require more draconian laws than any free society is willing to impose in order to control by use of law enforcement.  Hence, other means of addressing the problems caused by those drugs are more effective.

Legalizing them deprives organized crime in this country of one of its more lucrative sources of income, and deprives overseas groups we oppose such as the FARC and the Taliban of that source of funds as well.  The effect on the borders of reduced smuggling is secondary.

Another side benefit of cocaine legalization is that it should lead to reduced demand for methamphetamine as well, since the two are similar in their effects (but not entirely the same).
Will what I propose deal with every problem the border has?  Of course not, I don't offer utopian dreams.  There are still persons and items we'll want to keep from crossing the border, but by offering a legal avenue for those it makes no sense to attempt to keep from crossing, we can more easily deal with the residue we don't want.

In short, there is not a single instance you can cite on supporting border security!

Not surprised.

[CARLHAYDEN]

April 12, 2011
G.D.P. Estimate for First Quarter Slides
By CATHERINE RAMPELL

In the article Macroeconomic Advisers revises it 2011 growth projection downward from 4.1% (made three months ago) to 1.5%.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/12/g-d-p-forecast-for-first-quarter-slides/

[CARLHAYDEN]

Inflation Actually Near 10% Using Older Measure

Tuesday, 12 Apr 2011

By: John Melloy
Executive Producer, Fast Money

Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209

[CARLHAYDEN]

US lacks credibility on debt, says IMF

By Chris Giles and James Politi in Washington

April 12 2011

The US lacks a “credible strategy” to stabilise its mounting public debt posing a small but significant risk of a new global economic crisis, says the International Monetary Fund.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc1aadea-652e-11e0-b150-00144feab49a.html#axzz1JMOiIDTD

[CARLHAYDEN]

Inflation Actually Near 10% Using Older Measure

Tuesday, 12 Apr 2011

By: John Melloy
Executive Producer, Fast Money

Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209

This article is far too full of hype.

Looking at the article's source, you'll see pre-1980 CPI methodology has placed the inflation rate above 8% since 1996, excepting only 2009. If anything, this means that US inflation has returned to a "healthy" level as it finally gets out of the recession.

Spoken like a true follower of Obamanomics.

"Healthy" inflation?!?  ROTFLMAO

You really should emulate Obepo in style (you already do in substance).  He is at least comical.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Apparently you don't have any conception of economics.

"health" inflation.

You are hysterical.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Apparently you don't have any conception of economics.

"health" inflation.

You are hysterical.

Do you not understand economics? Sleep through the lesson on the Phillips curve?

I repeat, you apparently have no understanding of economics.

I have among my treasures an autographed copy of Socialism by Ludwig von Mises (he signed it for me personally).

I have interviewed the (then) head of the Mount Pelerin society.

I have had many talks with the Friedman son (David).

You, on the other hand, keep spouting collectivist nonsense.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Haha, collectivist nonsense? Whatever you say.

Since it seems to be more to your fancy, let's explain it in terms of Monetarist Theory: Milton Friedman's K-percent rule. Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, 1956. Yes?

Very jealous of the Mises autograph, btw.

You really should read more carefully.

Milton Friedman was an exponent of consistent monetary policy, NOT an proponent of inflation.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise; Inflation Pressure Grows

Thursday, 14 Apr 2011

By: Reuters

New claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, bouncing back above the key 400,000 level, while core producer prices climbed faster than expected in March, government reports showed on Thursday.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42586453

[CARLHAYDEN]

Haha, collectivist nonsense? Whatever you say.

Since it seems to be more to your fancy, let's explain it in terms of Monetarist Theory: Milton Friedman's K-percent rule. Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, 1956. Yes?

Very jealous of the Mises autograph, btw.

You really should read more carefully.

Milton Friedman was an exponent of consistent monetary policy, NOT an proponent of inflation.

Exactly. Basic monetary theory states that the money supply should be increased at a constant, steady rate, tied to the long-term average GDP growth, completely ignoring the business cycles. Now, if average long term growth is 3% per year but the economy's in a boom and not growing, what will happen? Short term inflation! And monetarists do recognize that there is still a short term trade-off between inflation and unemployment. So, in summation, basic monetary theory as advocated by M. Friedman directly implies that an expected level of mild inflation ought to be occurring in an economic bust. Nothing countercyclical or intentionally orchestrated by the central bank, mind you, just a natural byproduct of Monetarist philosophy.

You seem to not comprehend that while in years when the growth rate is below the target for money expansion, there will be some inflation, but, if the rate of monetary expansion is constant (and reasonable) then there will be years when there is deflation.  So, an average, the goal is to have the money supply expand at the rate of the economy (NO long term inflation).

[CARLHAYDEN]

U.S. credit rating outlook lowered by S&P

By Ben Rooney, staff reporterApril 18, 2011

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Standard & Poor's lowered its outlook for the nation's long-term debt Monday, saying the political grousing over the deficit could put more pressure on the still shaky economic recovery.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/18/news/economy/us_credit_rating_outlook_lowered/index.htm

[CARLHAYDEN]

US jobless claims stick above 400,000

By Shannon Bond in New York

Published: April 21 2011

The number of people claiming unemployment benefit stayed above 400,000 for the second week in a row, according to the latest US labour department figures.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0d1a8b5a-6c13-11e0-b36e-00144feab49a.html#axzz1KBd28Peu

[CARLHAYDEN]

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
          SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending April 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 429,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 404,000.

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

[CARLHAYDEN]

April 28, 2011
GDP growth rates slows to 1.8 percent in 2011 Q1
US GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011 slowed to an annual rate of 1.8 percent, compared to a rate of 3.1 percent in fourth quarter 2010 and 3.7 percent in first quarter 2010.

Read more: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/139088/20110428/gdp-growth-2011-us.htm#ixzz1Kp4jHWQH

[CARLHAYDEN]

Can you say “stagflation”?

However, “the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 3.8 percent rate,” somewhat higher the the growth rate of the economy.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42796520