The results of Obamanomics

[CitizenX]

Housing Starts See Biggest Drop Since 1984

Published: Wednesday, 16 Mar 2011

Reuters

U.S. housing starts posted their biggest decline in 27 years in February while building permits dropped to their lowest level on record, suggesting the beleaguered real estate sector has yet to rebound from its deepest slump in modern history.

Wholesale prices rise 1.6 pct. due to biggest jump in food costs in more than 36 years

The Associated Press, Wednesday, March 16

WASHINGTON — Wholesale prices jumped last month by the most in nearly two years due to higher energy costs and the steepest rise in food prices in 36 years.

14 straight months of private sector job growth under Obama.  Interestingly you missed that statistic.  You don't think JOBS are important when analyzing the economy?  I don't think you should be giving economics lectures.


This is not a meaningful discussion if you are only going to analyze the negative statistics when we are coming out of the worst recession we've had since the Great Depression.  I don't care who is in the White House the housing market is NOT going to "recover" to its previous heights.  I didn't hear any of you Republicans complaining that Pets.com didn't get back to its heights under the Clinton administration.  Let me introduce you to the concept of an ASSET BUBBLE.  House prices should NEVER have been that high.  If they were to get that high again under Obama I would say that he isn't doing his job.  That was not a healthy level for the market.  If you're underwater on your mortgage I'm sorry, but you should have done more due diligence.  Its not up to Obama to fix your greedy mistake.

And what's up with the food prices?!  We're the fattest country in the world.  Are you really struggling because of food prices?  Are you starving?

[CitizenX]

WASHINGTON | Fri Jun 3, 2011

(Reuters) - Employment rose far less than expected in May to record its weakest reading since September, while the jobless rate rose to 9.1 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/03/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7492P720110603

14 straight months of private sector job growth.

[CitizenX]

Well, CitizenX,first, its nice to see an Obama supporter openly being happy about rising food costs.

Second, don't know of any "greedy mistake" I supposedly made for Obama to fix.  I'll just put that down to your ignorance.

Bush starts a war and sends gas prices into the stratosphere.  He then proceeds to blow a Trillion+ dollars on the aforementioned pointless war while Republicans say nothing, and now... only now you're outraged because food prices in the richest fattest country on earth have gone up?  How much food does $1 Trillion+ buy?

I smell an agenda?  Anybody else getting that feeling?

Here's Obamnomics 101, son...



A picture is worth a thousand words.  You just got RUINED my friend.

[CitizenX]

Jobs fail

Jun 3, 2011 08:50 EDT

Reuters

Felix Salmon

JUN 3, 2011

“ it turns out that the government’s statisticians were overly optimistic for the past couple of months: the payrolls numbers for March and April were revised downwards by 39,000 jobs.”

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/06/03/jobs-fail/

By following preliminary month to month jobs numbers and ignoring the overall job market trend this tells me that you have never worked in an industry that actually uses economic data.  You simply do not know what to do with it.

Furthermore you are totally unfamiliar with the fact that as optimism increases amongst discouraged workers the jobless rate paradoxically goes UP.  This is a good thing.

You have to step back and look at the big picture... which I kindly provided.  If you like Mitt Romney look at that graph and say that Obama is a complete failure then we can safely ignore you too because you obviously have a partisan agenda.

There is no way to know where the economy will be in six months.  We may be adding 100,000s of jobs a month or we may be in a double dip recession.  But right here right now looking in the rear view mirror Obama smoked Bush and I wake up every day and thank God that McCain and Palin aren't running the economy.

[CitizenX]

CARL, who are you supporting in the pub field so far?

The current field is not very good.

Here's my assessment of current field:

Cain, Herman            Good guy, but no experience in public elective office.               B+
Palin, Sarah               Lots of courage, which causes the liberal media to hate her.   B
Bachman, Michelle     Plenty of potential                                                                     B-
Santorum, Rick          Sound but as exciting as a mashed potato sandwich.              C+
Pawlenty, Tim            The best of the establishment republicans                               C
Paul, Ron                   A few months ago would have ranked higher.                         C-
Johnson, Gary            Nice guy, but hasn’t held office since before Santorum!          D+
Gingrich, Newt           Scumbag.                                                                                  D
Romney, Mitt              Worse than Newt!                                                                    D-
Huntsman, Jon           Obama in whiteface.                                                                 F


Hoping DeMint will enter the race.

Your list is almost completely upside down.

Sarah Palin disliked because of her courage?!  No she is disliked because she is as dumb as a brick.  You would really give this person the nuclear option?

Herman Cain?  I've heard this guy speak.  I can't tell which person would hand Obama more of a landslide victory him or Sarah Palin.

Michelle Bachmann?!  Obviously you've never seen video tape of this woman.  Talk about unstable.  She is a birther for crying out loud.

Rick Santorum?!  Just google Santorum.  The results aren't presidential.

A Huntsman Pawlenty ticket would be very worrisome.  That could take down the Pres.  Republicans will not take the White House if they chose to run a carnival act.  You need to run a candidate that can do a press conference without producing an hour long gaff reel.

[CitizenX]

I'm surprised you missed this bit of economic news, CARL, since it uses your favorite word when it comes to economic news: "unexpectedly".

U.S. Economy: Trade Gap Narrows as Exports Rise to Record
By Alex Kowalski - Jun 9, 2011 5:13 PM ET

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-09/trade-deficit-in-u-s-unexpectedly-narrows-as-oil-auto-imports-decrease.html

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We can always count on you to try to find some way to defend Obama.

The reason the balance of trade is narrowing is because the American dollar is being devalued and we cannot afford foreign goods.

Check the exchange rates.

If you think this is 'good' news, then you are really unable to comprehend basic economics!

Actually its great news for exporters my friend.  China has been doing it for years.  Take a look at their economic progress relative to ours.

PS You might want to tone down your critique of other people's knowledge of basic economics.

[CitizenX]

I'm surprised you missed this bit of economic news, CARL, since it uses your favorite word when it comes to economic news: "unexpectedly".

U.S. Economy: Trade Gap Narrows as Exports Rise to Record
By Alex Kowalski - Jun 9, 2011 5:13 PM ET

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-09/trade-deficit-in-u-s-unexpectedly-narrows-as-oil-auto-imports-decrease.html

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We can always count on you to try to find some way to defend Obama.

The reason the balance of trade is narrowing is because the American dollar is being devalued and we cannot afford foreign goods.

Check the exchange rates.

If you think this is 'good' news, then you are really unable to comprehend basic economics!

Actually its great news for exporters my friend.  China has been doing it for years.  Take a look at their economic progress relative to ours.

PS You might want to tone down your critique of other people's knowledge of basic economics.

So, when the dollar further collapses, that will be 'good' news?

There are pros and cons to every currency trade.  A currency appreciating or depreciating is not necessarily always a good thing or a bad thing.  We (especially the Republicans like Trump) have been yelling at China insistently to appreciate their currency.  They have held it artificially low to build their export economy.  If a "collapsed" currency is so bad why is China pushing theirs down on purpose?

If you read the financial press (ie Financial Times) the rest of the planet was kind of pissed at us about QE1 and QE2.  They knew it was going to depress the dollar and give our manufactures like Caterpillar an advantage.

The flipside is raw materials are more expensive if there is a weaker dollar.  So for some industries the weaker dollar is a boon.  For others its a wash, and for still others it could be detrimental.  The point is its complicated and the average person simply does not have the academic fire power to have an intelligent conversation about the nuances of international currency markets and their effects on macroeconomics.

That's why I say cherry picking numbers month to month and proclaiming an economic policy a failure or success is not how real economists play the game.  Are we in big trouble or are things about to get magically better?  Check back in a year when we have a trend and all the revised numbers are in and we'll chat.

This is really an unprecedented economic situation.  If I thought there was someone out there with better ideas running for president I would say go for it.  Watching Romney flip flop on healthcare is not very encouraging considering how much healthcare figures into our future expenditures.  His terrible call on the auto industry is equally concerning.

I don't want to hear ideology out of the Republicans.  I want to hear what they are going to do differently.  And if the answer is more tax cuts for millionaires and cutting the pay of teachers then I'm going to stick with Obama.

[CitizenX]

We can always count on you to try to find some way to defend Obama.

With you around, I don't need to expend any effort on bashing Obama, since that is the only thing you do with Obama, sometimes with reason, but more often for items that are beyond any president's ability to do anything about.

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The American dollar has been consistently overvalued for a long time now and contributes to our economic problems.  While the good side of having the world's standard currency has been that it has kept our interest rates lower than they otherwise would have been, the bad side is the overvaluing of the dollar, making imports less expensive and our exports more expensive.  That would be a good thing if we were anywhere near full employment, but we aren't and we likely won't be for at least several more years.

Its nice to see you admit that you want the dollar devalued.  

In your strange world, we will be so much better off when it reaches the level of the currency of Zimbawbwee.

Oh, and I note that you keep telling the same lie.  You would have us believe that your obamamessiah is just some helpless fool who is subject to events outside his control.  You purposively ignore the policies he has implemented which are making things worse!  

Is closing down coal powered electric energy plants something 'beyond his control,'  or part of his policy to drive up energy prices?

Carl, Carl, Carl... What are we going to do with you.  You literally have no idea what you are talking about when it comes to economics.

Your exaggerations are ridiculous.  China is actively devaluing their currency.  They're on track to have a larger economy than us in a few decades.  Their devaluation is hardly turning them into Zimbabwe.  I want to ask you the same thing Katie Couric asked Sarah Palin... What do you read?!

The world of international finance is too complicated for you.  Please find another topic to pontificate on.

Shutting down coal plants, really?  The largest and most unorthodox financial maneuvers that have weighed the US dollar down recently are QE1 and QE2.  Obama certainly didn't have anything to do with that.  That was done by the Republican appointed head of the federal reserve.

Germany has formally announced that it is eliminating 30% of its current power generation.  Check out what that even more aggressive energy policy is doing to their economy.  Your nonsensical  hyperbole tells me that you don't know what you're talking about and that you get your news  from Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh

[CitizenX]

CitizenX,

Is yours an act?

Do you really believe that if we continue to devalue the currency we will be on the road to prosperity?

Apparently the world of reality is too complicated for you. 

Too bad you seem to have trouble reading, as I posted the information (including link) on the EPA regulations which are causing the shut-down of coal fired electric generating plants on this thread!  But perhaps, you believe that the less electric power we have, the better.

Carl,

If you want the freedom to pursue unfettered capitalism without regard to the effects on the environment move to China.  You Republicans are NOT smart.  All these ingenious ideas have been tried.  Since you like links check this out... http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/08/07/us-china-pollution-police-idUST7191620070807

China's economy is doing better than ours.  Oh, and a traffic cop in their capitol city has a life expectancy of 43 yrs because the pollution is terrible.  No offense Carl I like America THE BEAUTIFUL.  I have no desire to live in a toxic capitalistic wasteland like China.  If you love it so much move there and inhale all the fossil fuel based wonderfulness.

You and your Republican friends are going to learn that you can't get something for nothing.

[CitizenX]

Its nice to see you admit that you want the dollar devalued.  

In your strange world, we will be so much better off when it reaches the level of the currency of Zimbabwe.

CARL, comparing a devaluation of the dollar to a healthy level for the economy to the hyperinflation of Zimbabwe is like comparing an obese person who needs to go on a diet to someone who suffers from anorexia nervosa.

First, there is NO SUCH THING as a "healthy level of inflation"!!!   There is merely bad inflation and worse inflation.  That you are in favor of inflation is no suprise.  You are really strange.

Carl!

Are you being serious or is this just one big joke?  Not a single central bank sets its inflation target to zero.  Where are you getting this stuff?  If a countries inflation rate is 1.5% I don't know a single central banker who would even be discussing inflation let alone intervening to push it to zero.  Every single central bank is in favor of some positive level of inflation.  No central bank sets its target at or below 0.  Again Carl, what do you read?!

[CitizenX]

Its nice to see you admit that you want the dollar devalued.  

In your strange world, we will be so much better off when it reaches the level of the currency of Zimbabwe.

CARL, comparing a devaluation of the dollar to a healthy level for the economy to the hyperinflation of Zimbabwe is like comparing an obese person who needs to go on a diet to someone who suffers from anorexia nervosa.

First, there is NO SUCH THING as a "healthy level of inflation"!!!   There is merely bad inflation and worse inflation.  That you are in favor of inflation is no suprise.  You are really strange.

Carl!

Are you being serious or is this just one big joke?  Not a single central bank sets its inflation target to zero.  Where are you getting this stuff?  If a countries inflation rate is 1.5% I don't know a single central banker who would even be discussing inflation let alone intervening to push it to zero.  Every single central bank is in favor of some positive level of inflation.  No central bank sets its target at or below 0.  Again Carl, what do you read?!

You are really crazy.

Inflation is good?!?

Yeah, and the more the merrier?

Get real.

I don't run the worlds central banks.  If you think I'm crazy then you must think the people that set the inflation targets for the world's central banks are crazy.

So you think the Republican appointees Greenspan and Bernacke are crazy?

Do you think the president of the ECB is crazy?

Here's what happens when you go to school and actually read about central bank policy...

Since 1999, euro area headline inflation has averaged 2.1% a little above the ECB’s comfort zone of below but close to 2%.

-Jacques Cailloux

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/shadow-council/is-the-ecbs-inflation-target-too-strict-is-the-ecb-too-ambitious-in-trying-to-achieve-it-soon/2951984.html

So who knows more about economics the president of the ECB or some nameless hack that posts uninformed nonsense on internet forums?

[CitizenX]

A two year old knows more than the Preisdent of ECB, since a two year old knows nothing of economics, and the President of the ECB is deluded!

Bernacke is one of the most evil men alive.

Look at how wonderful everything is progressing under the guidance of the two lunatics.

A 'random walk' policy would be better than those they have pursued!

Ok.  I have no rebuttal.

[CitizenX]

A two year old knows more than the Preisdent of ECB, since a two year old knows nothing of economics, and the President of the ECB is deluded!

Bernacke is one of the most evil men alive.

Look at how wonderful everything is progressing under the guidance of the two lunatics.

A 'random walk' policy would be better than those they have pursued!

Ok.  I have no rebuttal.

No, you are simply incapable to comprehending a rebuittal!

Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Slides to Nine-Month Low on Sales Outlook

By Timothy R. Homan - Jun 15, 2011 7:00 AM MT Wed Jun 15 14:00:00 GMT 2011

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders slumped in June to the lowest level in nine months as executives turned more pessimistic on the outlook for sales, a sign that any pickup will take time to develop.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-15/homebuilder-confidence-in-u-s-slides-to-nine-month-low-on-sales-outlook.html

Foreclosure filings in the U.S. tumbled last month to the lowest in almost four years, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

Thank god "Obamanomics" (whatever that is) is beginning to stop all these W Bush foreclosures.

[CitizenX]

Foreclosure filings in the U.S. tumbled last month to the lowest in almost four years, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

Thank god "Obamanomics" (whatever that is) is beginning to stop all these W Bush foreclosures.

Unfortunately, this isn't very good news because what matters isn't the drop in foreclosures, but why it is happening. A major reason for the drop is that banks are now having to get their paperwork done right before foreclosing rather than just making assertions vaguely backed up by forms churned out by a lawyer mill.  The real estate bubble has yet to fully deflate.

CARL will of course just claim I'm making an excuse for the "Obamamessiah", but the after effect of this bubble, which popped before Obama was elected, much less in office is one reason why our economy is in trouble.  Our economy is undergoing a major adjustment, and I expect it'll be at least a decade before home construction gets to be anything close to normal again, let alone the abnormal absurdity it reached in the 201st decade.

Yes of course, I knew that.  I was just trying to join into Carl's theme for the thread.  You know, quoting monthly economic statistics totally out of context and drawing wild conclusions about macroeconomics.

The housing market collapse has nothing to do with W Bush or Obama.  And it is a bigger disaster than most people realize.  I would vote for anyone regardless of party if I honestly thought they would do a better job of fixing the economy.

[CitizenX]

The problem with foreclosures has radically changed under Obama.

While the initial problem which began before the Obama was the result of bad loans, securitzation of said loans, etc., the problem since Obama has assumed office has changed due to increases in unemployment.

Loans which would have been 'good,' with the rates of unemployment we experienced under Bush went bad under Obama due to increased unemployment rates.

So, yes, Obama policies made things worse!

[CitizenX]

The problem with foreclosures has radically changed under Obama.

While the initial problem which began before the Obama was the result of bad loans, securitzation of said loans, etc., the problem since Obama has assumed office has changed due to increases in unemployment.

Loans which would have been 'good,' with the rates of unemployment we experienced under Bush went bad under Obama due to increased unemployment rates.

So, yes, Obama policies made things worse!

     Based on the lengths of those bars, it's pretty clear that there are fewer jobs as of this March than there were in January 2009. That graph might be a rebuttal to something, but definitely not the bolded section.

If you look at this graph and the conclusion you come to is Bush was good for job growth and Obama was terrible for job growth... So therefor the housing crisis was made worse because we elected Obama... Then I think that says more about your own political agenda than the objective data presented in the graph.

[CitizenX]

The problem with foreclosures has radically changed under Obama.

While the initial problem which began before the Obama was the result of bad loans, securitzation of said loans, etc., the problem since Obama has assumed office has changed due to increases in unemployment.

Loans which would have been 'good,' with the rates of unemployment we experienced under Bush went bad under Obama due to increased unemployment rates.

So, yes, Obama policies made things worse!

     Based on the lengths of those bars, it's pretty clear that there are fewer jobs as of this March than there were in January 2009. That graph might be a rebuttal to something, but definitely not the bolded section.

If you look at this graph and the conclusion you come to is Bush was good for job growth and Obama was terrible for job growth... So therefor the housing crisis was made worse because we elected Obama... Then I think that says more about your own political agenda than the objective data presented in the graph.

     I suspect that who was President ultimately had little effect on the changes in numbers. The job numbers started improving dramatically in June 2009, earlier than Obama likely would have been able to effect any real change.

     Besides, the section you bolded is still correct, at least in terms of assessing relative unemployment numbers. They are higher now than they were under Bush, going off of that graph at least. The conclusion of CARL's post is the suspect part.

My posts on here are rebutting Carl's ridiculous economic posts.  I don't blame W Bush for the housing collapse.  That would have happened regardless of who was in the White House.    I do put a chunk of the blame for the recession squarely on his shoulders though.  There would have been a recession regardless of who was in the White House but the fall out from the Iraq War certainly didn't help.  The unpaid for tax cuts also didn't help.

Barring huge fiscal policy changes such as an unpaid for war or massive tax cuts there is little a president can do to seriously augment the business cycle in the short term.

[CitizenX]

Let me try to explain, for the simpleminded, the misleading nature of CitizenX's diagram.

Suppose you are at sea in a leaky boat.

Being an Obamanoid, you decided to do something about the leak -- you make it larger.

So, instead of dealing with the leak, you snort some coke and do a little bailing.

The quantity of water you bail (being an Obamanoid you don't want to fix problems, you want to engage in bailouts), is less than the water coming in as a result of the damage you did to increase the lead.

The answer is simple, ignore the water streaming in and publicize the amount of water being bailed.

The problem is that this attempt at hiding the truth only works for the incredibily stupid, as the boat is continuing to sink.

To put this in statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the (not seasonally adjusted) number of persons in the population age 16 and over has increased since Bush left office while the number of persons employed has decreased!

Year          Month          Civilian Noninstitutional Population          Employed           Percentage

2008       December                     235,035,000                           143,350,000             61.0
2011          May                            239,913,000                           140,028,000            58.5

Instead of an incoherent rambling post you should illustrate your point with a graph.  Like this...



Obama reversed the job losing policies of Bush and started adding private sector jobs.  See how easy that is to understand?