State Legislative Chambers in LA, MS, and VA

[rbt48]

I just noticed that two more Louisiana Democratic state legislators jumped ship, one in the Senate and the other in the House.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Chandler
The Senate is now 21R, 18D.

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/3769860428dd4288aa3a8905a0fa1612/LA--Lawmaker-Party-Switch/
The House is now 53R, 46D, 4I, 2 vacant.

You're way behind the times, the latest Senator to switch parties is Norby Chabert, who was just elected two years ago. The Democrats are down to 17 seats. What I'm curious to find out is how many white Democrats will be left in the Senate come 2012; currently (and obviously this is subject to change) they have 9 of the 17 seats.

I wonder how the voters will react to the party switchers in the fall elections.  Sometimes, as well all know, party changers aren't treated well when they come up for re-election.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I just noticed that two more Louisiana Democratic state legislators jumped ship, one in the Senate and the other in the House.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Chandler
The Senate is now 21R, 18D.

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/3769860428dd4288aa3a8905a0fa1612/LA--Lawmaker-Party-Switch/
The House is now 53R, 46D, 4I, 2 vacant.

You're way behind the times, the latest Senator to switch parties is Norby Chabert, who was just elected two years ago. The Democrats are down to 17 seats. What I'm curious to find out is how many white Democrats will be left in the Senate come 2012; currently (and obviously this is subject to change) they have 9 of the 17 seats.

I wonder how the voters will react to the party switchers in the fall elections.  Sometimes, as well all know, party changers aren't treated well when they come up for re-election.

It (at least D to R) seems to be pretty common in Louisiana; I don't know that it will be as big a deal as Parker Griffith or Arlen Specter.

[Frodo]

Out of curiosity, is it possible for the GOP to get supermajorities in either Mississippi and/or Louisiana like they currently have in Alabama?  

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Can't really say until the new maps come out, but Mississippi will probably be tough, since they're pushing to have at least 1/3rd of the districts in the House be majority-black. Louisiana will probably be easier to accomplish, since the Democrats are losing seats in New Orleans and the Republicans are gaining them in the Baton Rouge suburbs.

[ScottM]

Can't really say until the new maps come out, but Mississippi will probably be tough, since they're pushing to have at least 1/3rd of the districts in the House be majority-black. Louisiana will probably be easier to accomplish, since the Democrats are losing seats in New Orleans and the Republicans are gaining them in the Baton Rouge suburbs.

My gut says we won't have a new map in Mississippi this year. I think there's a high likelihood that we'll have legislative elections in back-to-back years. I think the current House maps give the GOP a good chance to take control of the House, due in large part to the recent actions of Speaker McCoy. But, if they can't come to an agreement this year and run in the current districts, we won't see the official new maps until next year.

[Bacon King]

Out of curiosity, is it possible for the GOP to get supermajorities in either Mississippi and/or Louisiana like they currently have in Alabama? 

I don't know much about Mississippi politics, but yeah it's definitely possible (perhaps even likely) for the GOP to get a supermajority in Louisiana.

Consider the following:

• First off, several districts will be carved out of the New Orleans area and placed in upstate suburbs, like Johnny said. These "jumping" districts are basically an automatic handicap towards the GOP.
• Besides that, practically every district in the state will be shifting territory around to account for Louisiana's huge population shifts. The GOP won't really care when their map inevitably cuts some incumbent Democrats out of their seats.
• Also, for the first time in forever, the Democrats don't get to make a gerrymander; it's the state GOP's first chance at this and they're going to be having a field day. Expect the GOP to shore up as many marginal districts as possible.
• Lastly, this being Louisiana, one can accept as inevitable that more white Democrats will switch parties. Several legislators are probably waiting to see what kind of district they'll have to run in this year before deciding whether or not to switch. You'll also probably even have a representative or two that'll switch after surviving as a Democrat in November, once they come to terms with the fact that otherwise they'll spend the rest of their political careers in the powerless minority.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Something I've noticed about Louisiana is it's not just the conservative DINOs who don't really have anything to do with the party anymore and should've switched a decade ago who switch parties.

Buddy Roemer was probably to the left of the median of the Louisiana Democratic Party during his tenure as Governor as a Democrat (vetoed an anti-abortion bill as noted before, the Louisiana Democrats at the time were full of pro-lifers).
John Kennedy ran for Senate in 2004 as the more liberal Democrat.
One of the recent party switchers is from the heart of New Orleans.

Of course a liberal switching to the GOP isn't likely to have much luck in a GOP primary...

[Bacon King]

There are no partisan primaries for Louisiana state offices (remember BRTD, jungle primary), so party-switchers don't have to worry about that.

[Brittain33]

• Also, for the first time in forever, the Democrats don't get to make a gerrymander; it's the state GOP's first chance at this and they're going to be having a field day. Expect the GOP to shore up as many marginal districts as possible.

Have they gerrymandered in the past? I recall in 2001 that the two parties cooperated on the congressional map, which preserved a Republican advantage, and party lines have long been fluid in the legislature with a fair bit of power sharing.

[Bacon King]

• Also, for the first time in forever, the Democrats don't get to make a gerrymander; it's the state GOP's first chance at this and they're going to be having a field day. Expect the GOP to shore up as many marginal districts as possible.

Have they gerrymandered in the past? I recall in 2001 that the two parties cooperated on the congressional map, which preserved a Republican advantage, and party lines have long been fluid in the legislature with a fair bit of power sharing.

Oh, certainly. Just look at the state House districts they used in the nineties.

2000 redistricting was kind of unique because there were huge factional arguments at the state capitol between lawmakers from different regions of the state, there were intra-party fights between black and white Democrats regarding minority seats, and there were difficulties with preclearance and other court cases. IIRC they barely got the state legislature districts done in time for the 2003 elections. Partisan concerns were just not a primary factor that year at all.

I don't know the details but to me the post-2000 maps seem like they were probably passed by a bit of a coalition effort between upstate Republicans and coastal/urban Democrats, both groups keeping themselves selfishly safe (in typical Louisiana politician fashion!) at the expense of their fellow party members. Still, though, check out this insane gerrymander (my state Senate district at Tulane, btw).

[Bacon King]

Some of the latest details for legislative redistricting, btw:

-The basic plan right now gives blacks three more House seats and 1 more Senate seat (which, as a result, make nearby territory safer for Republicans)
-Bubba Chaney, one of the House party switchers, got saved by the legislature's Republican leadership when they intervened to prevent the passage of an amendment to give Monroe a third house seat (which would have, as a result, pushed Chaney out of his district and into another incumbent Republican's territory). This definitely wouldn't have been stopped if Chaney was still a Democrat.
-three pairs of Democratic incumbents will be running against each other.
-there are talks of running multiple Senate districts across Lake Ponchartrain; whatever the justification they may use this would be in practice a very harsh Republican gerrymander.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

-there are talks of running multiple Senate districts across Lake Ponchartrain; whatever the justification they may use this would be in practice a very harsh Republican gerrymander.

Is that really necessary? I'd expect all the black parts of New Orleans/Jefferson Parish to be stuck together to maintain the black-majority districts, and all the white parts of Jefferson Parish and the north shore would be safe Republican territory.

[Dgov]

-there are talks of running multiple Senate districts across Lake Ponchartrain; whatever the justification they may use this would be in practice a very harsh Republican gerrymander.

Is that really necessary? I'd expect all the black parts of New Orleans/Jefferson Parish to be stuck together to maintain the black-majority districts, and all the white parts of Jefferson Parish and the north shore would be safe Republican territory.

I think its a safety thing--I assume that the Territory North of Lake Ponchartrain is far more reliably Republican than the New Orleans territory even if they vote similarly in presidential elections.  i think there are still some White NOLA Democrats left, but i think the Republicans own the Northern shore.

[Bacon King]

-there are talks of running multiple Senate districts across Lake Ponchartrain; whatever the justification they may use this would be in practice a very harsh Republican gerrymander.

Is that really necessary? I'd expect all the black parts of New Orleans/Jefferson Parish to be stuck together to maintain the black-majority districts, and all the white parts of Jefferson Parish and the north shore would be safe Republican territory.

I think its a safety thing--I assume that the Territory North of Lake Ponchartrain is far more reliably Republican than the New Orleans territory even if they vote similarly in presidential elections.  i think there are still some White NOLA Democrats left, but i think the Republicans own the Northern shore.

Exactly. For the record, there are actually a good number of conservative whites in the Lakeview area (between and the Jefferson Parish line). Until recently the area around Audubon Park voted pretty conservatively as well, but it's become pretty "latte liberal" in recent years.

[Frodo]

Seems as if southern and northeastern Mississippi will be the main battlegrounds for legislative races there:

State GOP, Democrats square off in races

By GEOFF PENDER - glpender@sunherald.com
   
The state Democratic and Republican parties are gearing up for an epic partisan battle over control of the state House and Senate, as legislative candidates met a Wednesday deadline to file to run for office.

Both state parties are expected to pump record amounts of resources into the races, likely more so than in the statewide office races such as governor and lieutenant governor. At stake, primarily, is the powerful House speaker position, which has been in the Democratic Party’s hands in Mississippi since Reconstruction.

South Mississippi and Northeast Mississippi will be key battlegrounds, with the GOP attempting to translate a huge Republican swing in the 2010 midterm federal elections to the state legislative level.

[minionofmidas]

Where else would they be? Everything else is 95%+ Black Democrats and White Republicans.

[Meeker]

The NJ primaries are tonight. Exciting!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The NJ primaries are tonight. Exciting!

Let me guess: all the party-endorsed candidates will win.

[Meeker]

The NJ primaries are tonight. Exciting!

Let me guess: all the party-endorsed candidates will win.

I thought there might be at least some fun redistricting casualties but from a quick glance it doesn't look like there are any incumbent vs. incumbent fights.

[CARLHAYDEN]

The NJ primaries are tonight. Exciting!

Let me guess: all the party-endorsed candidates will win.

Not all.

Published: Tuesday, June 07, 2011, 10:57 PM     

By Megan DeMarco/Statehouse Bureau 

Senate — Republican Primary

In the biggest upset of the night, Tea Party candidate William H. Eames won the Republican Primary in Legislative District 27 against establishment-backed William Sullivan.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/06/election_results_27th_district.html

[Badger]

Olympian Carl Lewis won the Democratic primary unopposed, but still faces legal challenges to his residency before being on the ballot. 

http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/Olympic-gold-medalist-Carl-Lewis-wins-primary-election-in-New-Jersey-Senate-race-060711?gt1=39002

Any NJ pols want to weigh in on his chances in Addiego's district if he stays on the ballot?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I wrote a lengthy analysis of this year's Virginia State Senate elections.

[Brandon H]

One more LA House Democrat is switching Republican. Can't find the article now, but I saw it earlier on a N.O. news site.

[Frodo]

Now that the primaries and run-offs are over, how does it look in Mississippi?  Will there be an all-Republican legislature there by next January? 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Republicans are targeting something like 20 seats in the House, so probably.