MO: Public Policy Polling: McCaskill ahead, but barely outside of MoE
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  MO: Public Policy Polling: McCaskill ahead, but barely outside of MoE
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Author Topic: MO: Public Policy Polling: McCaskill ahead, but barely outside of MoE  (Read 16232 times)
Miles
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« on: November 04, 2012, 11:20:04 AM »

New Poll: Missouri Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2012-11-03

Summary: D: 48%, R: 44%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 11:21:16 AM »

Akin's favorables are as low as they've ever been, at 29/56...and he could still possibly win.
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Franzl
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2012, 11:29:02 AM »

I've believed the entire time that this would be a close race....even a 2% McCaskill margin would not surprise me, Missouri has a tendency to have close elections.

But I still don't think Akin can win.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2012, 11:58:04 AM »

Here's a guy that is so unpopular but is consistently narrowing the gap. This comes down to whether or not Republicans return home. If the Libertarian gets half of what he's polling at, Akin probably takes it.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2012, 12:12:09 PM »

Here's a guy that is so unpopular but is consistently narrowing the gap. This comes down to whether or not Republicans return home. If the Libertarian gets half of what he's polling at, Akin probably takes it.

Yep. Akin is only getting 79% of Republicans. If he can get that up to 89% on election day, PPP says he'll win.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2012, 12:19:20 PM »

Here's a guy that is so unpopular but is consistently narrowing the gap. This comes down to whether or not Republicans return home. If the Libertarian gets half of what he's polling at, Akin probably takes it.

Yep. Akin is only getting 79% of Republicans. If he can get that up to 89% on election day, PPP says he'll win.

Yeah, it's going down to the wire here. It may actually turn out to be the nation's closest Senate race.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2012, 12:21:30 PM »

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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2012, 12:55:11 PM »

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2012, 01:38:35 PM »

Here's a guy that is so unpopular but is consistently narrowing the gap. This comes down to whether or not Republicans return home. If the Libertarian gets half of what he's polling at, Akin probably takes it.

Yep. Akin is only getting 79% of Republicans. If he can get that up to 89% on election day, PPP says he'll win.

Yeah, it's going down to the wire here. It may actually turn out to be the nation's closest Senate race.

Everything he does and says in the last 48 hours, should be that clip or comment from Reid about blocking Romney's agenda. This state is going to vote for Romney by near or above 10% and so if he wants to win, he has to tie himself to Romney and paint Claire as a Reid mininion voting for everything you hate and against everything you want.

I still think he will fall short, but there is a path there in the various ways that I have stated including, and contrary to JJ's rules (Screw the rules... Tongue), this is one state where there would likely be an embarrasment factor that shows up in the polls but not at the voting booth. How big that is, would be a key variable as to whether this is possible.

I actually think NV and MT might be closer still.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2012, 10:09:21 PM »

I can't believe it's still so close. Indeed...


Still, my faith in humanity leads me to believe McCaskill will hold on.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2012, 11:09:27 PM »

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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2012, 11:29:58 PM »

I don't think it will happen, but I'll laugh if Akin actually manages to pull this off. In a night that will likely spur a huge wave of Republican shock and anger, Akin winning would ensure that the Dems get to join in the fun. Great entertainment.

This would pretty much be a prime example of how partisan America is. How the hell can he be running this well with 29% favorables? Easy. He's not a Democrat. I wonder if this might coin a new phrase, "The Akin effect," in which you tell the pollster you are undecided or voting for the other candidate, as you are ashamed of your candidate, only to sneak into the voting booth and pull the lever for your secret candidate.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: November 10, 2012, 07:46:26 AM »

That was one of the few black spots PPP had this cycle. And despite the protestations of JJ and the other right-wing trolls, they massively underestimated her margin.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2012, 10:00:58 PM »


Not so terrible, turns out. Smiley

(of course, Akin still got 39.2% more votes than what he deserved, but let's not be too picky)
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2012, 10:46:46 AM »

Yeah, the polls in general were way off here. Anyone have any idea what happened? I notice that third parties did very well in this race, but the Libertarians & other minor parties broke 5% in a number of Senate races around the country.
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Hash
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« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2012, 10:55:22 AM »

Akin overpolling is rather weird. Conventional wisdom, at least outside the US, is that people are reticent to indicate their support for a radical/extremist candidate/party to pollsters and that they end up underpolling. In this case, the exact opposite happened. Were the pollsters wrong, or did a large bunch of his voters get reminded of "legitimate rape" before voting?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2012, 01:15:59 PM »

It's pretty clear that a large segment of Missouri voters had a change of heart when they were actually physically in the voting booth marking their ballot. I think most people expected this change of heart, if it occurred, to be in favor of Akin: Republicans who were embarrassed by his rape comments and couldn't bear to say they would support such a repugnant character over the phone to a pollster, but when in the privacy of the voting booth "came home" and voting for the Republican (like Hash talked about above). But these literally last minute swings happen in the opposite direction too. I suspect that were was a large segment of Republican-leaning women who said and thought they were supporting Akin up until election day, but just couldn't bring themselves to physically check the box for him when it came time to actually vote.

 I just don't understand why SUSA picked up on these "shy McCaskill" voters but PPP didn't (if you look at PPP and SUSA's Missouri polls, the results for president and governor are basically identical, but SUSA essentially got the senate race numbers right while PPP picked up a lot more Akin support than he actually received).
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old timey villain
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« Reply #17 on: January 17, 2013, 01:32:43 AM »

It's pretty clear that a large segment of Missouri voters had a change of heart when they were actually physically in the voting booth marking their ballot. I think most people expected this change of heart, if it occurred, to be in favor of Akin: Republicans who were embarrassed by his rape comments and couldn't bear to say they would support such a repugnant character over the phone to a pollster, but when in the privacy of the voting booth "came home" and voting for the Republican (like Hash talked about above). But these literally last minute swings happen in the opposite direction too. I suspect that were was a large segment of Republican-leaning women who said and thought they were supporting Akin up until election day, but just couldn't bring themselves to physically check the box for him when it came time to actually vote.

 I just don't understand why SUSA picked up on these "shy McCaskill" voters but PPP didn't (if you look at PPP and SUSA's Missouri polls, the results for president and governor are basically identical, but SUSA essentially got the senate race numbers right while PPP picked up a lot more Akin support than he actually received).

I think the polling and the eventual results of this election was a great example of current polarization. Apparently for some conservative voters, publicly admitting support for Todd Akin was less embarrassing than admitting support for a Democrat. Politics has become so tribal, and no matter what side we're on, we're pressured to steadfastly support our candidate even if they screw up big time. It's kind of like sticking up for your kid even when everyone knows he's a deadbeat.

But thankfully many of those voters did the right thing in the privacy of the voting booth. Clearly, many women and men just couldn't pull that lever for Todd Akin, even after telling people they would. Good for them. You can say whatever you want to keep up appearances and toe the party line, as long as you think for yourself on election day.
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