NJ-GOV '25 D primary (GQR/pro-Sherrill PAC): Sherrill 23, Baraka 20, Sweeney 12, Fulop 9, Gott 5

[brucejoel99]

GQR Dem. gubernatorial primary poll of New Jersey, conducted Mar. 7-12 with a sample size of 603 LVs, & a +/- 4% margin-of-error:

A poll commissioned by the Principled Veterans Fund, an outside political action committee that has connections to Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), finds Sherrill and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka to be the early leaders in the 2025 Democratic primary for New Jersey governor.

The poll, which was conducted by the Democratic pollster GQR last month, puts Sherrill at 23% of the vote among likely Democratic primary voters, with Baraka narrowly behind at 20%. Former State Senate President Steve Sweeney is at 12%, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop is at 9%, and Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff) is at 5%.

[...]

Although no candidate was involved in the commissioning of the poll, Principled Veterans Fund is closely connected to With Honor Fund, a PAC which has in turn spent more than $900,000 assisting Sherrill in her races for Congress over the last three cycles. The polling memo is clearly focused on arguing that Sherrill would be a strong gubernatorial candidate, should she enter the race.

"Sherrill is well positioned to win the 2025 gubernatorial primary," the memo states. "She also has an advantage as the only woman in the race and among the voters most concerned about protecting abortion rights. She easily beats Gottheimer and Fulop in North Jersey while Sweeney manages only a third of the vote in South Jersey."

The poll also tested the favorability ratings of all five candidates, and once again found that Sherrill and Baraka rise to the top of the heap.

Baraka has a favorable-unfavorable ratio of 38%-6%, while Sherrill is at 36%-7%. Gottheimer and Fulop have slightly more mixed ratios of 22%-10% and 21%-9%, respectively, while Sweeney has an underwater score of 23%-24%. Sweeney also has the highest name ID at 62%; Fulop's is the lowest at 39%.

[CookieDamage]

So basically it's Sherrill vs Baraka

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So basically it's Sherrill vs Baraka

Sweeney has a pretty solid power base too, so he's far from out of it.

[Senator Incitatus]

Strongly doubt these Baraka numbers.

[Babeuf]

Strongly doubt these Baraka numbers.

Only non-white candidate polled in a state that's only ~55% white (per 2020 census) should get you to double digits on its own. 20% does seem a bit high though. 

[Senator Incitatus]

Strongly doubt these Baraka numbers.

Only non-white candidate polled in a state that's only ~55% white (per 2020 census) should get you to double digits on its own. 20% does seem a bit high though. 

I should say that I don’t doubt they’re his current numbers (if on the high end), but he’s such a weak candidate that I think he’d be lucky to get double digits once things shake out.