Portuguese General Election

[Hash]

It's simple. Major economic crisis = blame the government. Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, US etc.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

     So it looks like the Social Democrats will see their best performance since 1991, but will still fall far short of 1991. Why exactly did the Socialists fall flat like this?

Austerity isn't exactly the most popular policy ever.

     People dislike austerity, so they reject the left for the right? That strikes me as...counterintuitive.

You make the mistake to think most voters are actully as informed, as rational, and as intelligent as you.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I may be reading this entirely wrong, but I think that this is a logical result of the merger of the SDP, which always claimed to support European-style social democracy, with the Liberals, who were fundamentally an anti-socialist party.

Put it like this: when it came to Thatcher's employment/union legislation, the SDP were always conflicted and prone to splinter, but the Liberals were always enthusiastically in favour.

[Hans-im-Glück]

To prevent any misunderstandings. The PSD was at its foundation more left like today. They were many years in the Liberal group in the European Parliament. Today they are more Conservative but economically more left than the most Conservative or Christian Democratic parties. The Portuguese political spectrum is generally left than the average in Europe. For a Socialist voter, who is more on the right side of the PS, it is no problem to vote for the PSD. The CDS is a mix between Westerwelle and Haider. People the a Political Matrix E -5 S +5 it is very easy to vote for them, because the CDS is very populist.

[RodPresident]

Portugal is losing a historic opportunity. Sócrates in my opinion could go to Left Bloc and Communists asking for a left-wing coalition to mantain Portugal sovereign. Nations need to be freed from debt "prison". We need to show that there's another way than giving money to bankers to promote a healthy development.

[Hans-im-Glück]

In the last week we had 2 new Polls:

Estudo da Universidade Católica for JN/ DN/ Antena 1/ RTP

PSD - 39%
PS - 33%
CDS-PP - 7%
CDU - 8%
BE - 6%


Eurosondagem for Renascença, "Expresso" and SIC

PSD - 37,8%
PS - 30,4%
CDS-PP - 10,7%
CDU - 8,4%
BE - 7,7%


In recent days, there were rumors that it might be a common list of CDU and BE. I don't believe it, but sometimes there are surprises.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     What would be the effects of a common CDU-BE list?

[Hans-im-Glück]

     What would be the effects of a common CDU-BE list?

The Portuguese electoral law prefers large parties and is rather bad for the little ones. With a common CDU-BE list they would have the chance to get more seats in Parliament.

If the CDU and the BE both get 7,5% each get 10-15 seats. In a commom list with 15% the get easy 35-40 seats

[Associate Justice PiT]

     What would be the effects of a common CDU-BE list?

The Portuguese electoral law prefers large parties and is rather bad for the little ones. With a common CDU-BE list they would have the chance to get more seats in Parliament.

If the CDU and the BE both get 7,5% each get 10-15 seats. In a commom list with 15% the get easy 35-40 seats

     Any specific reason they wouldn't form a common list, or is it just typical left-wing divisions?

[Hans-im-Glück]

     What would be the effects of a common CDU-BE list?

The Portuguese electoral law prefers large parties and is rather bad for the little ones. With a common CDU-BE list they would have the chance to get more seats in Parliament.

If the CDU and the BE both get 7,5% each get 10-15 seats. In a commom list with 15% the get easy 35-40 seats

     Any specific reason they wouldn't form a common list, or is it just typical left-wing divisions?

The CDU is a old fashoned Stalinist Party. The BE is a Troskyst Party. I think they have not so much in common

[Hans-im-Glück]

In the week before Easter we had 3 new Polls:

INTERCAMPUS

PSD - 38,7%
PS - 31,1%
CDS-PP - 9,4%
CDU - 8,1%
BE - 7,6%


Eurosondagem

PSD - 36.3%
PS - 32.7% 
CDS-PP - 11.3%
CDU - 7.8%
BE - 6.9%


Marktest

PSD - 35.3%
PS - 36.1%   
CDS-PP - 7.5%
CDU - 8.1%
BE - 6.0%


The elections will be on 5 June 2011

In the last polls the PS is better than expect and maybe we see them in the end as strongest party again. But if the PSD is the strongest party, it isn't sure that they will have a majority (with the CDS-PP) in parliament. It will be no common list between CDU and BE.

[Insula Dei]

The PS winning this election, albeit narrowly, would be quite the upset

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Isn't one of their Socialist parties actually Conservative?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks surprisingly well for the PS... After PASOK's win in Greek local election, I'm starting to wonder if voters might not be as stupid as I thought after all.

[Хahar 🤔]

Isn't one of their Socialist parties actually Conservative?

PSD

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

They should trade one of their two supposedly Socialist parties for one of Ireland's two supposedly Conservative parties.

[Niemeyerite]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

remember what I said? I think I'm good making predictions... I predicted Trump would have high numbers in polls, I predicted socrates was going to "reborn", and I still think he'll loose by 2-3 points, but will continue as prime-minister... I also said Harry Reid would be reelected. And I'm sure PSOE will continue in the Government of Spain after 2012 elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They should trade one of their two supposedly Socialist parties for one of Ireland's two supposedly Conservative parties.

Except that FF and FG are both actually conservative.

[Hans-im-Glück]

A New Poll for Portugal

Universidade Católica (06 May 2011) for RTP, Antena 1, Diário de Notícias and Jornal de Notícias

PS - 36%
PSD - 34%
CDS-PP - 10%
CDU - 9%
BE - 5%


In the last poll of the Universidade Católica (my opinion is they have the best polls) the PSD had 39% and the PS only 33%. In the end we have maybe the same parliament than today


For all those who have no idea of Portuguese parties:

PS = Partido Socialista (Socialist Party)
A mainstream Center-Left Party. It is a Social Democratic Party like it gives in the most European countries

PSD = Partido Social Democrata (Social Democratic Party)
It is the mainstream Center-Right Party of Portugal. It is similar to the CDU in Germany. Maybe the PSD is economical a little bit more left than her German equivalent.

CDS-PP = Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular (Democratic and Social Centre – People's Party)
They are on the right side of the PSD. It is a mix of Neo-Liberals like the FDP (Germany), Catholic Conservatives and Rightwing Populists.

CDU - Coligação Democrática Unitária (Democratic Unity Coalition)
Is coalition of the PCP (Communist Party) and the  unimportant PEV (Green Party). The PCP is the old Moscow-Communists and they didn't change their Program after the end of the Soviet Union. They are very strong in the south and at members of Labor Unions.

B.E. = Bloco de Esquerda (Left Bloc)
It is a union of 3 different Left parties. The Euro-Communists (UDP), a Troskyst Party (PSR), an Anachistic Party (PXVII) and many independent Leftwingers. It is the "libertarian" part of the Extreme Left. It is popular in big cities and especially in intellectual circles.

[Leftbehind]

Isn't one of their Socialist parties actually Conservative?

That could apply to any European country in all honesty.  

[Hans-im-Glück]

New Polls for Portugal

INTERCAMPUS (12 May 2011)

PS - 36.8%
PSD - 33.9%
CDS-PP - 13.4%
CDU - 7.4%
BE - 6.0%

Marktest (10 May 2011)

PS - 33.4% 
PSD - 39.7%
CDS-PP - 9.0% 
CDU - 6.5%
BE - 4.8%


Normally INTERCAMPUS is the better institute for Polls. It will be a close result and nobody can say who wins. 13,4 % for the CDS-PP seems a little bit to much. In the last years the CDS-PP was underpolled, maybe this time overpolled

[big bad fab]

Are relations betwen PSD and CDS good at the time ?
Can't they have a majority even with the PS comeback ?

[SmokingCricket]

Would a different party/coalition in government mean significant changes to the proposed austerity plans that Portugal is supposedly going to undergo as per terms of the EU bailout?

[Antonio the Sixth]

New Polls for Portugal

INTERCAMPUS (12 May 2011)

PS - 36.8%
PSD - 33.9%
CDS-PP - 13.4%
CDU - 7.4%
BE - 6.0%

Marktest (10 May 2011)

PS - 33.4% 
PSD - 39.7%
CDS-PP - 9.0% 
CDU - 6.5%
BE - 4.8%


Normally INTERCAMPUS is the better institute for Polls. It will be a close result and nobody can say who wins. 13,4 % for the CDS-PP seems a little bit to much. In the last years the CDS-PP was underpolled, maybe this time overpolled

I can't understand how two polls conducted almost at the same time can diverge so much. Either one of them is crap, or both are, or portuguese politics are especially random.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Are relations betwen PSD and CDS good at the time ?
Can't they have a majority even with the PS comeback ?

PSD and CDS must work together, but they will never Love each other. And so long Paulo Portas is the chaiman of the CDS the relations will be not better, because he think that he is the best and all others are idiots.

It is possible that PSD and CDS have the majority and the PS is still the biggest party, but it is very unlikely. The CDS must then have more seats than the PCP and the B.E. together. The Communists have strongholds in the south and the Portuguese Election System is good for them.

Would a different party/coalition in government mean significant changes to the proposed austerity plans that Portugal is supposedly going to undergo as per terms of the EU bailout?

I think there is no change in the politics with a Government change. The only difference is the PS have a bad conscience cut social spending and the PSD don't.

I can't understand how two polls conducted almost at the same time can diverge so much. Either one of them is crap, or both are, or portuguese politics are especially random.

Maybe this is the main problem in Portugal. They can't count

Seriously, the Marktest-polls are every month so different, that I can't believe it they are correct. One Month ago all Institutes say a small advantage for the PSD. Marktest said the PS leads with 4%. Now it the opposite, all give the PS the lead and Marktest don't.