Portuguese General Election

[Hans-im-Glück]

This isn't a surprise for me. The Socialists have no majority in the Parliament and the opposition don't want to vote for the Budget Cuts. It would be the 4th Cuts in short time.

The biggest opposition Party, the conservative Social Democrats (PSD) are leading in the polls. They have no other recipe like Portugal could come out of the crisis, but they say now no to the cuts and after the election they make the same or worse.

The last poll I saw was from end of February:

PSD  47.8%
PS  29.1%
PCP  6.1%
B.E.  5.9%
CDS  4.2%

[Hans-im-Glück]

Great, just what the Portuguese needed...

I'd even say "just what the Euro-zone needed..."

^^^^^^

Until the election there will be in Portugal now no more important decision.

It is to early to say what will be the result of the election. I think the PSD will win, but not with this 47% like in the last poll. The Portuguese People don't think they have a better plan. They will win because many socialists will stay at home and not go to election. Sócrates is a very good campaigner and now he can prove how good he really is.

[Hans-im-Glück]

I think the PSD will win, but not with this 47% like in the last poll. The Portuguese People don't think they have a better plan. They will win because many socialists will stay at home and not go to election.

Why don't Socialists vote for the other socialist parties instead?

Some people will do this. I think the 3 smaller parties are underpolled. But it give many who vote for the PS, but never would vote for the Communists (PCP), especially in North Portugal. The B.E. is something like a mix between, in simple words, Trotzkists and Left-Greens. This isn't a mix who all Socialists like.

[Hans-im-Glück]

But it give many who vote for the PS, but never would vote for the Communists (PCP), especially in North Portugal. The B.E. is something like a mix between, in simple words, Trotzkists and Left-Greens. This isn't a mix who all Socialists like.

Even so, voting far-left can be an effective protest vote, without gifting the PSD - their principle opponents - even more of a crushing majority. Voting Communist and Trotskyist doesn't mean Portugal is any danger of becoming that, it just means the Socialists can rely on a few more votes when they want to defeat some objectionable PSD legislature.

You can't expect that a Catholic pensioner from northern Portugal, which normally votes for the PS now make his cross for the PCP or the B.E.. They stand for something he would never support. If he is not satisfied with the PS, then he stay at home or vote PSD or CDS.

[Hans-im-Glück]

To prevent any misunderstandings. The PSD was at its foundation more left like today. They were many years in the Liberal group in the European Parliament. Today they are more Conservative but economically more left than the most Conservative or Christian Democratic parties. The Portuguese political spectrum is generally left than the average in Europe. For a Socialist voter, who is more on the right side of the PS, it is no problem to vote for the PSD. The CDS is a mix between Westerwelle and Haider. People the a Political Matrix E -5 S +5 it is very easy to vote for them, because the CDS is very populist.

[Hans-im-Glück]

In the last week we had 2 new Polls:

Estudo da Universidade Católica for JN/ DN/ Antena 1/ RTP

PSD - 39%
PS - 33%
CDS-PP - 7%
CDU - 8%
BE - 6%


Eurosondagem for Renascença, "Expresso" and SIC

PSD - 37,8%
PS - 30,4%
CDS-PP - 10,7%
CDU - 8,4%
BE - 7,7%


In recent days, there were rumors that it might be a common list of CDU and BE. I don't believe it, but sometimes there are surprises.

[Hans-im-Glück]

     What would be the effects of a common CDU-BE list?

The Portuguese electoral law prefers large parties and is rather bad for the little ones. With a common CDU-BE list they would have the chance to get more seats in Parliament.

If the CDU and the BE both get 7,5% each get 10-15 seats. In a commom list with 15% the get easy 35-40 seats

[Hans-im-Glück]

     What would be the effects of a common CDU-BE list?

The Portuguese electoral law prefers large parties and is rather bad for the little ones. With a common CDU-BE list they would have the chance to get more seats in Parliament.

If the CDU and the BE both get 7,5% each get 10-15 seats. In a commom list with 15% the get easy 35-40 seats

     Any specific reason they wouldn't form a common list, or is it just typical left-wing divisions?

The CDU is a old fashoned Stalinist Party. The BE is a Troskyst Party. I think they have not so much in common

[Hans-im-Glück]

In the week before Easter we had 3 new Polls:

INTERCAMPUS

PSD - 38,7%
PS - 31,1%
CDS-PP - 9,4%
CDU - 8,1%
BE - 7,6%


Eurosondagem

PSD - 36.3%
PS - 32.7% 
CDS-PP - 11.3%
CDU - 7.8%
BE - 6.9%


Marktest

PSD - 35.3%
PS - 36.1%   
CDS-PP - 7.5%
CDU - 8.1%
BE - 6.0%


The elections will be on 5 June 2011

In the last polls the PS is better than expect and maybe we see them in the end as strongest party again. But if the PSD is the strongest party, it isn't sure that they will have a majority (with the CDS-PP) in parliament. It will be no common list between CDU and BE.

[Hans-im-Glück]

A New Poll for Portugal

Universidade Católica (06 May 2011) for RTP, Antena 1, Diário de Notícias and Jornal de Notícias

PS - 36%
PSD - 34%
CDS-PP - 10%
CDU - 9%
BE - 5%


In the last poll of the Universidade Católica (my opinion is they have the best polls) the PSD had 39% and the PS only 33%. In the end we have maybe the same parliament than today


For all those who have no idea of Portuguese parties:

PS = Partido Socialista (Socialist Party)
A mainstream Center-Left Party. It is a Social Democratic Party like it gives in the most European countries

PSD = Partido Social Democrata (Social Democratic Party)
It is the mainstream Center-Right Party of Portugal. It is similar to the CDU in Germany. Maybe the PSD is economical a little bit more left than her German equivalent.

CDS-PP = Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular (Democratic and Social Centre – People's Party)
They are on the right side of the PSD. It is a mix of Neo-Liberals like the FDP (Germany), Catholic Conservatives and Rightwing Populists.

CDU - Coligação Democrática Unitária (Democratic Unity Coalition)
Is coalition of the PCP (Communist Party) and the  unimportant PEV (Green Party). The PCP is the old Moscow-Communists and they didn't change their Program after the end of the Soviet Union. They are very strong in the south and at members of Labor Unions.

B.E. = Bloco de Esquerda (Left Bloc)
It is a union of 3 different Left parties. The Euro-Communists (UDP), a Troskyst Party (PSR), an Anachistic Party (PXVII) and many independent Leftwingers. It is the "libertarian" part of the Extreme Left. It is popular in big cities and especially in intellectual circles.

[Hans-im-Glück]

New Polls for Portugal

INTERCAMPUS (12 May 2011)

PS - 36.8%
PSD - 33.9%
CDS-PP - 13.4%
CDU - 7.4%
BE - 6.0%

Marktest (10 May 2011)

PS - 33.4% 
PSD - 39.7%
CDS-PP - 9.0% 
CDU - 6.5%
BE - 4.8%


Normally INTERCAMPUS is the better institute for Polls. It will be a close result and nobody can say who wins. 13,4 % for the CDS-PP seems a little bit to much. In the last years the CDS-PP was underpolled, maybe this time overpolled

[Hans-im-Glück]

Are relations betwen PSD and CDS good at the time ?
Can't they have a majority even with the PS comeback ?

PSD and CDS must work together, but they will never Love each other. And so long Paulo Portas is the chaiman of the CDS the relations will be not better, because he think that he is the best and all others are idiots.

It is possible that PSD and CDS have the majority and the PS is still the biggest party, but it is very unlikely. The CDS must then have more seats than the PCP and the B.E. together. The Communists have strongholds in the south and the Portuguese Election System is good for them.

Would a different party/coalition in government mean significant changes to the proposed austerity plans that Portugal is supposedly going to undergo as per terms of the EU bailout?

I think there is no change in the politics with a Government change. The only difference is the PS have a bad conscience cut social spending and the PSD don't.

I can't understand how two polls conducted almost at the same time can diverge so much. Either one of them is crap, or both are, or portuguese politics are especially random.

Maybe this is the main problem in Portugal. They can't count

Seriously, the Marktest-polls are every month so different, that I can't believe it they are correct. One Month ago all Institutes say a small advantage for the PSD. Marktest said the PS leads with 4%. Now it the opposite, all give the PS the lead and Marktest don't.

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new Poll for Portugal

INTERCAMPUS (16 May 2011)

PS - 35.4%
PSD - 36.1%
CDS-PP - 12.6%
CDU - 7.5%
BE - 6.2%


The PSD is stronger than the PS again, but in reallity it is a tie. With this result we will have a minority Government again.

[Hans-im-Glück]

This evening is the debate between the incumbent Prime Minister José Sócrates (PS) and the leader of the Opposition Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD). They will start in 4 hours 15 minutes. Who understand Portuguese can look it online on RTP 1

We will see who win this debate.

[Hans-im-Glück]

This evening is the debate between the incumbent Prime Minister José Sócrates (PS) and the leader of the Opposition Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD). They will start in 4 hours 15 minutes. Who understand Portuguese can look it online on RTP 1

We will see who win this debate.

What a lousy debate. One of the two clowns must be the next prime minister . Portugal has a bad future.

I have seen a draw to a very low level. Some analysts and a telephone survey of the Universidade Catolica have seen a small lead for Passos Coelho. No matter, this debate will have no big influence to the election result.

This week I'll post my prediction for the election.

[Hans-im-Glück]

New Polls for Portugal

INTERCAMPUS (20 May 2011)

PS - 34.1% 
PSD -  35.7% 
CDS-PP - 12.8%
CDU - 7.5%
BE - 6.8%

Aximage (19 May 2011)

PS - 29.5%   
PSD -  31.1%   
CDS-PP - 12.9%
CDU - 7.3%
BE - 5.2%
Undecided - 14.0%

This were the last polls before the debate between Sócrates and Passos Coelho. It would be a very close result. In this polls it isn't sure PSD and CDS-PP will have the majority in mandates, but it is possible.

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new Poll for Portugal

Universidade Catolica (24 May 2011)

PS - 36% 
PSD -  36% 
CDS-PP - 10%
CDU - 9%
BE - 6%


This is the first poll after the "big debate". with this result PSD and CDs-PP would have no majority.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Why has the BE's support decreased since the last election? And how has the government managed into turning the election into a tie after being down so much and being the midst of an economic depression?

In short words:

The campaign slogan of the PS is "Defending Portugal" and they show José Sócrates is the Portuguese "Asterix" , who fights for the rights of Portugal. Many Portuguese people know that the PSD have no other plan against the crisis and then they maybe vote for the Politician they know.

The BE had in the last election a dream-result, but with this dream-result come the first problems. Everyone knows the BE is against this and that, but nobody know what is the plan for the future of them. And all they say sounds very impracticable. On the other hand the PCP looks in this election a little bit more modern and maybe they can recover some voters. One problem of the BE is maybe their chairman. I like Francisco Louçã, but with the years many people can't hear him anymore. It is every time the same "music"

[Hans-im-Glück]

What are the chances of the PSD + CDS-PP getting a majority.  Wouldn't that be the best coalition to make the necessary spending cuts to get the deficit under control.

As if the PS wouldn't make the same cuts anyways...

^^^^ this and

We had PSD/CDS-PP coalitions in the past and I they weren't very harmonious. When the CDS has tolerated a minority government of the PS, there were far fewer conflicts.

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new Poll for Portugal

EUROSONDAGEM (25 May 2011)

PS - 32.6% 
PSD -  33.1% 
CDS-PP - 13.7%
CDU - 7.6%
BE - 6.6%


Some differences to the poll of the Universidade Católica, but in the end the same. No Majority for PSD/CDS-PP

[Hans-im-Glück]

Today I start my prediction for the election. First the 2009 result. Only the seats, for the complete result look on this site: http://www.eleicoes.mj.pt/legislativas2009/


The mandates by district:

Açores     PS 3, PSD/PPD 2
Aveiro       PS 6, PSD/PPD 7, CDS/PP 2, B.E. 1,
Beja         PS 2; PCP-PEV 1

Braga       PS 9, PSD/PPD 6, CDS/PP 2, B.E. 1, PCP-PEV 1
Bragança      PS 1, PSD/PPD 2
Castelo Branco       PS 2, PSD/PPD 2

Coimbra    PS 4, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1
Évora       PS 1, PSD/PPD 1, PCP-PEV 1
Faro       PS 3, PSD/PPD 3, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1,

Guarda       PS 2, PSD/PPD 2
Leiria       PS 4, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1
Lisboa       PS 19, PSD/PPD 13, CDS/PP 5, B.E. 5, PCP-PEV 5

Madeira       PS 1, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1
Portalegre       PS 1, PSD/PPD 1
Porto       PS 18, PSD/PPD 12, CDS/PP 4, B.E. 3, PCP-PEV 2

Santarém       PS 4, PSD/PPD 3, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1, PCP-PEV 1
Setúbal       PS 7, PSD/PPD 3, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 2, PCP-PEV 4
Viana do Castelo     PS 3, PSD/PPD 2, CDS/PP 1

Vila Real      PS 2, PSD/PPD 3
Viseu       PS 4, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1

Europe  PS 1, PSD/PPD 1
Rest of the Word  PSD/PPD  2

PORTUGAL      PS 97, PSD/PPD 81, CDS/PP 21, B.E. 16, PCP-PEV 15




Açores

2009: PS 3, PSD/PPD 2

The Açores-Islands are in the last years a good place for the PS. This time it will be a close race who will be stronger PS or PSD. It is a coin-flip, but I see the PSD a little bit in the lead

My prediction for 2011:
PS 2 (-1), PSD 3 (+1)


Aveiro

2009: PS 6, PSD/PPD 7, CDS/PP 2, B.E. 1

A rural district with a medium-sized industrial city (Aveiro) and in the north, the southern suburbs of Porto. It is a very conservative part of Portugal. The B.E. will have problems to win their mandate again.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 6 (nc), PSD 8 (+1). CDS-PP 2 (nc)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Beja

2009: PS 2, PCP-PEV 1

The most left-wing dictrict of Portugal. One seat for the PS and for the Communists are save. With the last seat is many possible. PS, PCP-PEV and PSD have a chance to win it. I think the PS will lose and the PSD will winn some votes and that is enough for the PSD to win the last seat.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 1 (-1), PSD 1 (+1). PCP-PEV 1(nc)


Braga

2009: PS 9, PSD/PPD 6, CDS/PP 2, B.E. 1, PCP-PEV 1

It is a District in the North of Porto and have many Industrial Cities there. In Braga the people are economical left, but socially conservative. The Catholic Church is a factor there, like in all northern disticts of Portugal. The last two seats will be close between all parties. The last mandate of the PSD and the CDS can go to PS or the PCP.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 8 (-1), PSD 8 (+2). CDS-PP 2 (nc), B.E. 0 (-1), PCP-PEV 1 (nc)


Bragança

2009: PS 1, PSD/PPD 2

A district full of Catholic Rednecks. Easy to predict

My prediction for 2011:
PS 1 (nc), PSD 2 (nc)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Castelo Branco

2009: PS 2, PSD/PPD 2

The most progressive district of the northern inland and the home-district of José Sócrates. I don't expect any changes.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 2 (nc), PSD 2 (nc)


Coimbra

2009: PS 4, PSD/PPD 4, CDS-PP 1, B.E. 1

Coimbra is a big Univerity-City and in the bigger cities give it some industry. The rual parts are, like Aveiro, very conservative. Coimbra lose one mandate and will have in the new Parliament only 9 seats. Tha last seat is only the question CDS or B. E.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 4 (nc), PSD 4 (nc), CDS-PP 1 (nc), B. E. 0 (-1)


Évora

2009: PS 1, PSD/PPD 1, PCP-PEV 1

Like all parts of the Alentejo it is very left. In good Years the PS will win the last seat, but see no changes there.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 1 (nc), PSD 1 (nc), PCP-PEV 1 (nc)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Faro

2009: PS 3, PSD/PPD 3, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1

My home-district
Faro will have one seat more than 2009 and this could help the CDS to win the seat from last time again. The PS had last election a disastrous result there. I don't expect that the will lose much more. The B.E. will not have over 15% again but enough to get a mandate. The PCP needs only 2% more for a seat, but it will be not easy

My prediction for 2011:
PS 4 (+1), PSD 3 (nc), CDS-PP 1 (nc), B.E. 1 (nc)


Guarda

2009: PS 2, PSD/PPD 2

It is a little bit like Castelo Branco, only without José Sócrates. In a very good year the PSD can win there 3 seats, but I don't see it.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 2 (nc), PSD 2 (nc)


Leiria

2009: PS 4, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1

It is a very conservative, Catholic district, only with some left spots like Marinha Grande. I think the PS will hold  their seats, but the last will be very close. All other parties can win this seat too.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 4 (nc), PSD 5 (+1), CDS-PP 1 (nc), B.E. 0 (-1)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Can PTP gain a seat or more in Madeira with dark horse José Manuel Coelho? It would be awesome to have him as swing vote in National Assembly. I think also that far-right PNR and far-left parties (PCTP and POUS) can try to make inroads in main districts (Lisbon and Porto) to get a seat in protest, although election looks to be very polarized to third (or sixth) parties gains.

Madeira is unpredictable. Coelho had 37 % in the Presidential election there, but vote the Madeirians for him again? Nobody can say this.

In Lisbon you need only 2% to get a seat. It is possible that one small party grt enough votes, but you are right the election is very polarized and I don't see it. The PCTP/MRPP have the biggest chance. The PNR is only a joke party, but it would be not the first time that a joke party come into a parliament


And for all poster who dicuss about left and right economical politics. We have a Board for this issue, this isn't the right place.