My take on Florida's Legislative races in 2010 (Part 2: Florida House HD's 1-80)

[Mississippi Political Freak]

Here's my analysis on the Florida State House races in 2010 from North Florida to Southwest Florida:

North Florida

HD-11 (GOP Target)

The Dem incumbent Debbie Boyd seemed to a victim of her HD's hard turn to the right and suffered some spillovers from US Rep. Allen Boyd's ouster from CD-2 (In Suwannee and Lafayette Counties situated in HD-11, where he got whipped by now US Rep. Steve Southerland)  She has, however, lost every county in the district (even in the Alachua county portion, supposedly the most Democratic part of that HD).  The right turn in rural Alachua, together with a GOP candidate with an elected office significant geographical base (Columbia County Commissioner Elizabeth Porter) cause a GOP pickup to materialize.

Central Florida

HD's 44,47,57 and 60 (Dem Targets)

These three suburban Hillsborough County seats (plus one primarily Hernando County seat) are among the most prominent Democratic targets in the State House, and all feature semi-serious to serious Dem candidates.  Two of them (in HD's 47 and 60), however, faced well-known/legacy GOP opponents and the third (HD-57) has her own baggage, and a forth (HD-44) faced an incumbent in more hostile territory than the other 3.

In HD-44, former Hernando County Commissioner Diane Rowden is supposed to be a formidable candidate with strong local roots.  However, the circumstances behind her ouster in 2008 has probably left a bitter taste in the voters' mouth, and Hernando County's turn to the hard right under GOP's chair Blaise Ingoglia's influence is a huge drag on her campaign.  Together with portions of Sumter (itself a hard-right county dominated by older/rural voters) and Pasco (also undergoing a rightward turn), incumbent Rep. Robert Schenck didn't have to sweat for a 3rd term.

In HD-47, the GOP candidate James Grant is the son of former State Sen. John Grant and he is able to take advantage of this connection (and the district's GOP-tilt) to carry the day over the supposedly well-funded Dem Michael Steinberg.

In HD-57, connection to a local political scion seem to work the other way.  Stacy Frank, the Dem candidate is the daughter of well-liked former County Commissioner and current Clerk of the Circuit Court in Hillsborough County Pat Frank.  She is well funded and is supposedly competitive in a open-seat situation in a swing district.  Her work as a lobbyist behind the construction of cell phone towers on school grounds, however, seems to attract a dedicated cadre of opponents.  Together with the backlash against the "(Democratic) legacy candidate label" and Alex's Sink under- performance in the county, all these contribute to her loss to the GOP candidate, Dana Young.

In HD-60, the GOPer is former Tampa City Councilman Shawn Harrison.  He has the name recognition, elected political experience and geographical base to his advantage in his race against the Democratic candidate, Russ Patterson, and holds the open seat for his party comfortably.

HD's 51 and 52 (GOP Targets)

This pair of neighboring Pinellas swing seats are the most remarkable of the 5 GOP's pickups (all by defeating incumbents) in the state house, as they occur in territories probably carried by Alex Sink in her gubernatorial race.  Both Dem incumbents have two terms under their belt, but each committed a cardinal sin to enable GOP pickups.  

In Rep. Janet Long's case (HD-51), a controversial ad featuring her son, a decorated veteran, questioning GOP candidate Larry Ahern's military credentials seems to have backfired, while Rep. Bill Heller's campaign in HD-52 seems to be caught asleep until it's too late to stem a surge from the GOP candidate, Jeff Brandes.

One more not-so-competitive, but interesting race in Central Florida:

HD-26 (Dem Target)

The Dems targeted HD-26 opened up by Pat Patterson's failed CFO GOP primary candidacy by running  former deputy superintendent of Volusia County schools Tim Huth, banking on his civic ties to create a pickup opportunity.  However, in Ormond Beach Mayor Fred Costello, the GOP got its trump card with a candidate who has a political base locally and easily holds this open seat.

Southwest Florida

HD-69 (GOP Target)

Rep. Keith Fitzgerald's ouster from Sarasota's HD-69 proved to be one of the most painful for the House Dems, as his is an extremely articulate and wonkish professor from the New College of Florida and is pretty well-regarded for a Dem in a GOP-heavy (albeit politically moderate) region.  His GOP opponent, Ray Pilon, is no slouch either; as he is a former Sarasota County Commissioner.  Pilon's experience, geographical base together with Rick Scott's coattail in SW Florida worked to pip him to the top by the 2nd narrowest margin among the GOP pickups (only Jeff Brandes's is narrower, and HD-52 is believed to be a tilt Dem district, while HD-69 is tilt GOP)

HD-73 (Dem Target)

In Cole Peacock, the Dems has the most serious State House candidate for a Lee County seat in years.  However, the Scott coattail and Lee County's GOP lean proves too much for even a business-friendly Dem like Peacock to overcome, allowing Dave Aronberg's 2008 GOP opponent in his SD-27 race, Matt Caldwell to become the new State Rep. after Nick Thompson vacated the least Republican seat in Lee County to pursuit a Circuit Court Judgeship.

The final part of my analysis will cover the State House races in South Florida from the Treasure Coast (Indian River, St. Lucie & Martin counties)down to the Keys.