Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

low BQ numbers means it'll be easier for the Tories to get a majority. They're already in majority territory.

[bullmoose88]

low BQ numbers means it'll be easier for the Tories to get a majority. They're already in majority territory.

It wouldn't be the Liberals getting the boost in seats first (how quickly do the Tories begin to win seats on a swing away from BQ)? Or is that irrelevant as both parties would gain seats to some degree by a swing away from BQ...and with the Tories closer to the post...bam.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No one knows what the hell is going on in Quebec this election. I mean more than normal. Fun!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

No one knows what the hell is going on in Quebec in any election.

I've edited your quote to be more true to us anglos.

[Smid]

low BQ numbers means it'll be easier for the Tories to get a majority. They're already in majority territory.

It wouldn't be the Liberals getting the boost in seats first (how quickly do the Tories begin to win seats on a swing away from BQ)? Or is that irrelevant as both parties would gain seats to some degree by a swing away from BQ...and with the Tories closer to the post...bam.

Don't know... but my thought would be that it probably benefits the Liberals/NDP in Montreal, and the Tories in rural Quebec, and possibly Quebec City? I know the whole hockey arena thing there, but last election the Bloc picked up that seat of the Tories (I forget the seat, but I think it had Herbert in the name? It was Luc Harvey's seat, the northeastern corner of the city) - but that wasn't because the Bloc picked up votes, it was because the federalist vote split and the Tories lost enough votes to the Liberals to end up in second place behind the Bloc. If the Bloc loses enough votes, it could be a potential Tory gain, even if those votes flow predominantly to the Liberals. No doubt there are a plethora of seats that defy my generalisation, but that's how I see it. I'm sure MaxQue and others will be able to point out the probably numerous holes in my logic.

[Hatman 🍁]

Could be some BQ voters are turning to the NDP. Or they're just not going to vote.

low BQ numbers means it'll be easier for the Tories to get a majority. They're already in majority territory.

It wouldn't be the Liberals getting the boost in seats first (how quickly do the Tories begin to win seats on a swing away from BQ)? Or is that irrelevant as both parties would gain seats to some degree by a swing away from BQ...and with the Tories closer to the post...bam.

Don't know... but my thought would be that it probably benefits the Liberals/NDP in Montreal, and the Tories in rural Quebec, and possibly Quebec City? I know the whole hockey arena thing there, but last election the Bloc picked up that seat of the Tories (I forget the seat, but I think it had Herbert in the name? It was Luc Harvey's seat, the northeastern corner of the city) - but that wasn't because the Bloc picked up votes, it was because the federalist vote split and the Tories lost enough votes to the Liberals to end up in second place behind the Bloc. If the Bloc loses enough votes, it could be a potential Tory gain, even if those votes flow predominantly to the Liberals. No doubt there are a plethora of seats that defy my generalisation, but that's how I see it. I'm sure MaxQue and others will be able to point out the probably numerous holes in my logic.

Louis-Hebert (avec un accent) is what you're thinking of. A.K.A, Quebec West.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Paul Okalik, the first premier of Nunavut from 1999-2008, is running as a Liberal: http://www.liberal.ca/candidates/paul-okalik/ - he would seem to be a very strong candidate for Nunavut's personal voting situation, but with the usual caveat about this being a hard riding to predict from the outside.

Other than that, I haven't seen too many genuinely interesting candidates (as opposed to the usual handful of vaguely better-known-than-average politicians touted by party hacks as "star candidates")

[Hash]

Former NWT Premier Joe Handley is also running as a Liberal in Western Arctic, which could make it a three-way NDP/Purgs/Grit battle.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Debates are occurring right now.

[homelycooking]

How does Harper stay so cool? Iggy looks desperate. Duceppe is his crazy self. Layton is very good, but no one cares. Why is Layton hearkening back to "the old Stephen Harper"? Why does Iggy sound so pissed off?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He stays cool because he's a robot.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've not seen any knock out punches / debate home runs

[Hatman 🍁]

I've not seen any knock out punches / debate home runs

A few things from Jack Layton, but of course that doesn't count.

[Smid]

Could be some BQ voters are turning to the NDP. Or they're just not going to vote.

low BQ numbers means it'll be easier for the Tories to get a majority. They're already in majority territory.

It wouldn't be the Liberals getting the boost in seats first (how quickly do the Tories begin to win seats on a swing away from BQ)? Or is that irrelevant as both parties would gain seats to some degree by a swing away from BQ...and with the Tories closer to the post...bam.

Don't know... but my thought would be that it probably benefits the Liberals/NDP in Montreal, and the Tories in rural Quebec, and possibly Quebec City? I know the whole hockey arena thing there, but last election the Bloc picked up that seat of the Tories (I forget the seat, but I think it had Herbert in the name? It was Luc Harvey's seat, the northeastern corner of the city) - but that wasn't because the Bloc picked up votes, it was because the federalist vote split and the Tories lost enough votes to the Liberals to end up in second place behind the Bloc. If the Bloc loses enough votes, it could be a potential Tory gain, even if those votes flow predominantly to the Liberals. No doubt there are a plethora of seats that defy my generalisation, but that's how I see it. I'm sure MaxQue and others will be able to point out the probably numerous holes in my logic.

Louis-Hebert (avec un accent) is what you're thinking of. A.K.A, Quebec West.

That's the one! I didn't want to have a guess at it because the name is similar to Saint Hubert, and I get them confused.

Last election saw many of the largest swings in Quebec going to the NDP. I have a map of that, too large for the gallery (as you know...) I might try to shrink it and post a smaller one.

EDIT: Resized it, so now the Ottawa area really does desperately require an inset, but regardless, here it is, simply to back up my comments about the swings to the NDP in much of Southern Quebec, including Montreal. Bigger version in the Gallery.



SECOND EDIT: Beware of Nova Scotia in particular... the exceptionally strong swing to the Greens is an overstatement, given that the Liberals didn't run so that they wouldn't take votes from Elizabeth May - and therefore the swing to the Greens was mostly from the Liberals. Likewise, the swing to the independent was because he ran (and won) as a Conservative candidate in the previous election, therefore all of his vote is considered a swing to him... it would in some ways be more accruate to show the swing to him as a comparison with the previous Conservative vote, but then I'd be making an arbitrary decision, so I'd prefer to add this caveat instead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or you could use the sh**tty outline map developed specially for this very forum:

[Hatman 🍁]

Or you can use mine:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or you could go to Hell for table breaking

My Toronto/Montreal maps rock anyway. The others are kind of sh!tty, but then I was working quickly.

Edit: I wonder whether it might be possible to edit that swing map into a useable outline map? Actually it would. Just a matter of finding the time.

[Smid]

Edit: I wonder whether it might be possible to edit that swing map into a useable outline map? Actually it would. Just a matter of finding the time.

Started on it, as one of a million other "little" jobs I'm working on. It'll probably take a little while, although I think it will bump up my priority list as the election draws closer. The original map is 3792 by 2918 pixels, so I shrunk it to the maximum size with a width of 2500 pixels. I'll add in an Ottawa inset and go over the boundaries.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

My maps are better because they have the name of all ridings:








The are free for any use. Edit them, colour them, turn them upside down, print them out and stick them up your bum - I could care less.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Also sorry for double posting, and, for tablebreaking.

This entire page is sizebroken so I'm trying to run out the page so that we can get back to normal sizage.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

running out the page.

[Hatman 🍁]

Explain your map. Your predictions?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Started on it, as one of a million other "little" jobs I'm working on.

I know the feeling...

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Excellent!

If time gets tight, I'm more than happy to act as a second hand.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

My map predictions are explained on my website.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I posted them mostly for the base maps.

Edit them as you wish.