Canada 2011 Official Thread
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #50 on: March 27, 2011, 01:18:51 PM »

Have there been any boundary changes?
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« Reply #51 on: March 27, 2011, 01:21:42 PM »

Have there been any boundary changes?

No. There should be some by the next election.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #52 on: March 27, 2011, 05:20:37 PM »

Eugh, I hate how centre-left parties seem to be doing so badly, all over the world.

Such blanket statements are never accurate. At best they're true for a small subset of the world.

At any rate, the Liberals aren't really of the left in any sense.

It's Canada. They're fine.

I'd never argue otherwise.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #53 on: March 27, 2011, 05:34:02 PM »

Divided support for the Left....*sigh*.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #54 on: March 27, 2011, 05:57:51 PM »
« Edited: March 27, 2011, 06:17:22 PM by José Peterson »



Boundary changes will occur after the 2011 census. The legislation to change the formula to end the under-representation of the faster-growing provinces didn't end up getting passed, so it's still uncertain whether it will get passed in the next parliament in time for the post-census redistribution.

A little surprisingly, both the federalist opposition parties were sort of wishy-washy about the legislation, even though it's clearly in the NDP's interest. There were some very weird statements from some of their members that I thought suggested there was a fight between Mulcair and possibly Layton and the rest of the caucus about it, but they wanted to keep it private.

Edit: Sorry, I realize this was unclear. I meant (Mulcair and possibly Layton) and (the rest of the caucus) as the two sides.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #55 on: March 27, 2011, 06:13:40 PM »

I've seen plenty of signs that the NDP will gain seats - I can rhyme them off - Surrey North, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Newton-North Delta, North Vancouver Island, Edmonton East, Palliser, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Parkdale-High Park, Davenport, Gatineau, Dartmouth, South Shore-St. Margarets, St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

I'm not sure what "signs" you need to see that the NDP can and probably will gain seats. Most polls have the party slightly above what it got in the last election and a rising tide raises all ships.

While I wish this were true, the truth is the NDP is likely to not win any of those seats. I'll break them down:

*Surrey North: After Winnipeg North, this is the most likely chance of an NDP pick up. It is a traditional NDP riding. If the NDP runs a good campaign there, they can win it, but Dona Cadman has lots of name recognition and it will be tough- especially with immigrants starting to vote for the Tories.
*Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca - could be an NDP pick up, as it will be an open seat and anything could happen. The NDP did finish a distant 3rd last time, however.
*Newton-North Delta - this was a target in previous elections, but in 2008, the NDP was squeezed into 3rd. Perhaps enough Tory/Liberal vote splitting may have the NDP come up the middle, but it is doubtful.
*North Vancouver Island - this one may be close again, but I see the gap widening, especially now that Catherine Bell won't be running.
*Edmonton East - Same race as 2008. I see the NDP may make some inroads, but not enough to win it.
*Palliser - oh please, Saskatchewan? I've had hopes for a long time to win back some Saskatchewan seats, but I lost faith in that now.
*Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar - see Palliser. SK Premier Brad Wall is very popular right now. It's not a good time to be a dipper in Sask.
*Parkdale-High Park. Nope. Kennedy is way too popular.
*Davenport. Hahahaha. Really?
*Gatineau - this is my wet dream, but a recent poll showed Boivin in a distant 3rd. She will probably finish 2nd... or could even win, but she'll have to work really hard again.
*Dartmouth-Cole Harbour - Nope. I've been hoping for a change here since Wendy Lill retired in 2004. Savage is too popular, and with the NDP falling provincially, there will be few if any gains in the province
*South Shore-St. Margaret's. Another Earle vs. Keddy fight that will be just like the others. In fact, the gap will probably widen some more.
*St. John's South-Mt. Pearl - same race as last time. The NDP could win if the Tories which will do better in NL this time steal enough Liberal votes. But, I think most Tories voted NDP last time, so that's not going to happen.

And seats where the NDP may lose?
Welland, Sault Ste. Marie & Burnaby-Douglas are some good bets to start with.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #56 on: March 27, 2011, 06:18:56 PM »

Shouldn't NDP organizers be less depressing? Tongue
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Smid
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« Reply #57 on: March 27, 2011, 06:25:56 PM »

And seats where the NDP may lose?

Welland...

Provincially, the NDP won it with more than 50% of the vote, didn't they? I'm really hoping that there's a good party structure there that will help the NDP defend it, although if not, vote splitting could see it go Tory and help gain a majority. I've sort of assumed that with it being provincially held, if the incumbent is half decent, there should be some consolidation of the NDP vote there.
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DL
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« Reply #58 on: March 27, 2011, 06:29:54 PM »

In 2008 the popular vote in BC was Tories 45%, NDP 26%, Libs 19%. Most polls now show the Tories falling to about 40-41ish and the NDP rising to 28-29ish (bear in mind that the NDP took 29% in BC in the '06 election. If the Conservative/NDP gap in BC goes from 19 points to about 10 or 11 points - seats WILL be gained.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #59 on: March 27, 2011, 07:30:03 PM »

Shouldn't NDP organizers be less depressing? Tongue

Party workers are usually glass entirely empty people. It's usually better that way as well...

Provincially, the NDP won it with more than 50% of the vote, didn't they?

Incumbent provincially is massively - absurdly even - personally popular.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #60 on: March 27, 2011, 08:10:46 PM »

Divided support for the Left....*sigh*.

Manna from Heaven for Harper.  Cheesy   
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #61 on: March 27, 2011, 08:35:28 PM »

Shouldn't NDP organizers be less depressing? Tongue

Party workers are usually glass entirely empty people. It's usually better that way as well...

Provincially, the NDP won it with more than 50% of the vote, didn't they?

Incumbent provincially is massively - absurdly even - personally popular.

Indeed, Peter Kormos is very popular. Not to say Welland isn't NDP friendly, as it has a NDP pockets- and the candidate in 2008 was not the same as the 2006 candidate (he lost the nomination in '08 and ran as an independent). So, there is a definite basis there.

Shouldn't NDP organizers be less depressing? Tongue

Well, in the past some of my few failed predictions have come from over estimating the NDP, so I've tried a different approach Wink
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #62 on: March 27, 2011, 08:57:17 PM »
« Edited: March 28, 2011, 01:20:47 PM by José Peterson »

While we're briefly on the topic of possible NDP pickups, the big northern SK riding is a possibility - the 2006/2008 results are irrelevant, since they've got the Chief of the Saskatchewan Federation of Indian Nations as their candidate instead of the unknown dude they had the last couple of rounds. (Turnout patterns and internal Liberal/NDP politics up there are very hard to predict from the outside, though).
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #63 on: March 27, 2011, 09:48:01 PM »

While we're briefly on the topic of possible NDP pickups, the big northern SK riding is a possibility - the 2006/2008 results are irrelevant, since they've got the Chief of the Saskatchewan Federation of Indian Nations as their candidate instead of the unknown white dude they had the last couple of rounds. (Turnout patterns and internal Liberal/NDP politics up there are very hard to predict from the outside, though).

Interesting. A quick look at electionpredictions.org indicates that the last three predictions have been for the NDP. Not a riding that I've thought about lately. Will have to keep my eye on it.
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DL
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« Reply #64 on: March 27, 2011, 09:49:21 PM »

FYI, the "unknown white guy" you refer to as having been the NDP candidate in northern Sask was actually First Nation - though i agree not very well-known.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #65 on: March 28, 2011, 05:02:29 AM »

Polls ?
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #66 on: March 28, 2011, 05:06:00 AM »

The NDP will gain seats if the Liberals are weak, and the Liberals are currently weak. When it comes clear that Harper will win a majority, people will be "free" to switch to the party they "truly" support. Some of the NDP's best elections have been during Majority governments, because there is no pressure to vote for Party A to keep Party B out.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #67 on: March 28, 2011, 01:20:17 PM »

FYI, the "unknown white guy" you refer to as having been the NDP candidate in northern Sask was actually First Nation - though i agree not very well-known.

oh sorry - I'll fix the earlier post, thanks.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #68 on: March 28, 2011, 04:48:45 PM »


     I found them on Wikipedia, though unfortunately no provincial-level polling.
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DL
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« Reply #69 on: March 28, 2011, 08:25:32 PM »

Several new polls today:

Harris-Decima: Cons 38% (+4), Libs 24% (-4), NDP 19% (+2) and Greens 7% (-2)
Forum: Cons 41%, Libs 24%, NDP 19%
Abacus: Cons 36% (-2%), Libs 27% (+1), NDP 20% (+1)

There have now been 5 polls out since the government fell and all have had the NDP at 19% or 20% - which would be almost an all-time high
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #70 on: March 28, 2011, 09:30:43 PM »

Will the fact that Liberal leader Ignatieff spent more than three decades away from Canada come back to haunt him in this campaign?

He was a university professor teaching mostly in Europe and the U.S.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #71 on: March 28, 2011, 10:01:43 PM »

Will the fact that Liberal leader Ignatieff spent more than three decades away from Canada come back to haunt him in this campaign?

Already featured on Tory adverts. Not pleasant, even if it's mildly amusing to see the leader of a nationalist party on the wrong side of a base appeal to nationalism.

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He was also a late-night arts tv presenter on the BBC! So strange to see him as a senior politician. Whatever next? First Minister Wark?
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cinyc
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« Reply #72 on: March 29, 2011, 12:07:41 AM »

Several new polls today:

Harris-Decima: Cons 38% (+4), Libs 24% (-4), NDP 19% (+2) and Greens 7% (-2)
Forum: Cons 41%, Libs 24%, NDP 19%
Abacus: Cons 36% (-2%), Libs 27% (+1), NDP 20% (+1)

There have now been 5 polls out since the government fell and all have had the NDP at 19% or 20% - which would be almost an all-time high

Dippers in the 18%-21% range is consistent with practically all of the later 2008 polling


     I found them on Wikipedia, though unfortunately no provincial-level polling.

Caveat Emptor on provincial-level polling.  In past cycles, provincial "polls" usually were just subsamples of the national polling.  MoEs for most provinces were notoriously large - sometimes double digits for Atlantic Canada and Western Canada, if B.C. wasn't included.  Even B.C.'s MoEs were often high single digits.  Ontario's subsample was often large enough to draw some conclusions, and Quebec had one or two Quebec-only polls, IIRC.   Atlantic Canada also might have had one true regional poll, but it wasn't run frequently enough to determine trends.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #73 on: March 29, 2011, 01:00:55 AM »


     I found them on Wikipedia, though unfortunately no provincial-level polling.

Caveat Emptor on provincial-level polling.  In past cycles, provincial "polls" usually were just subsamples of the national polling.  MoEs for most provinces were notoriously large - sometimes double digits for Atlantic Canada and Western Canada, if B.C. wasn't included.  Even B.C.'s MoEs were often high single digits.  Ontario's subsample was often large enough to draw some conclusions, and Quebec had one or two Quebec-only polls, IIRC.   Atlantic Canada also might have had one true regional poll, but it wasn't run frequently enough to determine trends.

     I thought that it was odd that there weren't any provincial-level polls there, but that explains it. It seems that sub-national polling, let alone polling of individual legislative races, is a mostly American phenomenon.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #74 on: March 29, 2011, 01:17:31 AM »

Each PDF file breaks down the poll. You never see a national-only poll, at least, in 26 years of my life, I've never ever seen one.
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