Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

All these polls seem to confirm the Conservatives have an 8 to 10 point lead over the Liberals.

Is this an indication the Conservatives could possibly be in a good position to win a majority?

Thoughts?

National polls are meaningless in Canada, it all depends on where that support is coming from, and by that, I mean Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

Outremont: NDP 47%, Lib 27%, BQ 14%, Con 7%, Green 5%

Excellent

[DL]

Two ridings in Montreal do have polls done of them:

Lac-Saint-Louis: Lib 46%, Con 26%, NDP 12%, Green 8%, BQ 7%
Outremont: NDP 47%, Lib 27%, BQ 14%, Con 7%, Green 5%

Obviously the record of constituency poll is bad just about everywhere, etc, etc, etc.

I'm not sure what makes you say that. We don't tend to see all that many riding polls in Canada - but when they are done - they tend to quite accurate.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Not really. There were a number a few years back showing the NDP leading in random Quebec ridings. They are only good so long as you add 10 points for fuzz.

[Hash]

Two ridings in Montreal do have polls done of them:

Lac-Saint-Louis: Lib 46%, Con 26%, NDP 12%, Green 8%, BQ 7%
Outremont: NDP 47%, Lib 27%, BQ 14%, Con 7%, Green 5%

Obviously the record of constituency poll is bad just about everywhere, etc, etc, etc.

I'm not sure what makes you say that. We don't tend to see all that many riding polls in Canada - but when they are done - they tend to quite accurate.

Have a look at the slew of riding polls (mostly in QC) in 2008.

[Хahar 🤔]

What sort of Arabs are there in Ottawa South?

[Kevinstat]

Two ridings in Montreal do have polls done of them:

Lac-Saint-Louis: Lib 46%, Con 26%, NDP 12%, Green 8%, BQ 7%
Outremont: NDP 47%, Lib 27%, BQ 14%, Con 7%, Green 5%

Obviously the record of constituency poll is bad just about everywhere, etc, etc, etc.

I'm not sure what makes you say that. We don't tend to see all that many riding polls in Canada - but when they are done - they tend to quite accurate.

Have a look at the slew of riding polls (mostly in QC) in 2008.

Voter preferences in Quebec may be more fluid than in the rest of Canada.

[Boris]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=6322728

The US should follow suit and ensure that the Presidential and Vice Presidential debates don't interfere with the MLB playoffs

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=6322728

The US should follow suit and ensure that the Presidential and Vice Presidential debates don't interfere with the MLB playoffs

You say that as if baseball was still our national sport.  It's been gridiron football for a long time now.  MLB is on par with the NBA these days, with the ratings for the finals between the two depending on what the matchup is.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=6322728

The US should follow suit and ensure that the Presidential and Vice Presidential debates don't interfere with the MLB playoffs

Didn't the Australian debate between Gillard and Abbott get moved last year because it interfered with Masterchef...?

[Mr. Morden]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=6322728

The US should follow suit and ensure that the Presidential and Vice Presidential debates don't interfere with the MLB playoffs

Didn't the Australian debate between Gillard and Abbott get moved last year because it interfered with Masterchef...?

Yes.  Also, Obama's 2010 State of the Union was scheduled to avoid a conflict with the season premiere of Lost.

[Hatman 🍁]

What sort of Arabs are there in Ottawa South?

Lebanese, mostly. And, they've been here for a while. Think Paul Anka

[Dancing with Myself]

Does anyone know if the election will be on any channel in the US?

[Bacon King]

Does anyone know if the election will be on any channel in the US?

News channels will probably mention the winner after results are declared; I suppose there might be more coverage in news markets that border Canada.

If you really want to watch election news live, though, I'd suggest you stream a Canadian news channel from their website.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Does anyone know if the election will be on any channel in the US?

I watched it live on CSPAN 3 last go round... been planning to do the same this time. Let's hope.

[cinyc]

Does anyone know if the election will be on any channel in the US?

I watched it live on CSPAN 3 last go round... been planning to do the same this time. Let's hope.

C-SPAN has also shown the debates in the past, or at least the English one - though perhaps tape-delayed.  The English language debate is this Tuesday.  The French language debate has been moved up to Wednesday to avoid a conflict with a Montreal Canadiens playoff game on Thursday.  If C-SPAN does not show the debate, it will likely be streamed on cpac.ca, Canada's C-SPAN equivalent.

IIRC, CPAC has streamed its election night coverage in the past.  But I can't remember when it began, since it's illegal to release results from eastern Canada in provinces where polling is still ongoing.

[cinyc]

Today's Nanos:

Conservative	39.5%	-1.0
Liberal	31.6%	-0.1
NDP	14.7%	+1.5
BQ	8.1%	-1.1
Green	4.8%	+0.8

(3 days ending April 9)

Trends are from yesterday, which I forgot to post - though I guess you can easily figure it out from the trend.  The race has tightened in Ontario - which may be all that really matters on election day.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

CPAC will have free Internet coverage, CBC, and likely CTV will too.

As the above poster said, it is illegal to broadcast results until after the final polls close.

Elections Canada, the official election agency (the ones who count the ballots) will also have live streaming results but no TV or Radio style coverage

[Nichlemn]

All these polls seem to confirm the Conservatives have an 8 to 10 point lead over the Liberals.

Is this an indication the Conservatives could possibly be in a good position to win a majority?

Thoughts?

National polls are meaningless in Canada, it all depends on where that support is coming from, and by that, I mean Ontario.

What matters are swing districts, and while Ontario has an above-average number of them, it by no means has all of them.

[cinyc]

CPAC will have free Internet coverage, CBC, and likely CTV will too.

As the above poster said, it is illegal to broadcast results until after the final polls close.

Elections Canada, the official election agency (the ones who count the ballots) will also have live streaming results but no TV or Radio style coverage

It's legal for, say, ATV in the Atlantic Provinces to broadcast results to the Maritimes after the polls close there.  It would be illegal for them to broadcast results to B.C. or Ontario, where the polls would still be open.  I always wonder whether this means the cable and satellite companies have to black out the time-shift TV stations out West for the night.

[cinyc]

Today's Nanos - a wild swing to Tories and Dippers:

Conservative	41.2%	+1.7
Liberal	30.4%	-1.2
NDP	15.2%	+0.5
BQ	7.8%	-0.3
Green	4.6%	-0.2

(3 days ending April 10)

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Even after the wild swing to the NDP, they are still doing worse than in other polls. I'm guessing that they're really at ~18% right now.

[Smid]

Combination of a pro-Tory sample coming on and a pro-Grit sample dropping off?

Actually, been a bit of a rollarcoaster ride for the Tories these past couple of days, down 1, then up 1.7... Something seems a bit off, a rogue poll in the mix, perhaps? I note the NDP up two points across the past two days. Were they perhaps under-estimated in earlier polls or is there something of a resurgence for them?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect they just picked up a duff sample. Happens.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

These are some of the lowest BQ numbers I've ever seen!