Canada 2011 Official Thread

[cinyc]

Several new polls today:

Harris-Decima: Cons 38% (+4), Libs 24% (-4), NDP 19% (+2) and Greens 7% (-2)
Forum: Cons 41%, Libs 24%, NDP 19%
Abacus: Cons 36% (-2%), Libs 27% (+1), NDP 20% (+1)

There have now been 5 polls out since the government fell and all have had the NDP at 19% or 20% - which would be almost an all-time high

Dippers in the 18%-21% range is consistent with practically all of the later 2008 polling. 

Polls ?

     I found them on Wikipedia, though unfortunately no provincial-level polling.

Caveat Emptor on provincial-level polling.  In past cycles, provincial "polls" usually were just subsamples of the national polling.  MoEs for most provinces were notoriously large - sometimes double digits for Atlantic Canada and Western Canada, if B.C. wasn't included.  Even B.C.'s MoEs were often high single digits.  Ontario's subsample was often large enough to draw some conclusions, and Quebec had one or two Quebec-only polls, IIRC.   Atlantic Canada also might have had one true regional poll, but it wasn't run frequently enough to determine trends.

[cinyc]

Per the Montreal Gazette, the most recent Quebec polling is downright disastrous for the Liberals:

Leger Marketing:
Bloc: 39%
Conservatives: 22%
Liberals 18%
NDP: 16%

CROP:
Bloc: 38%
Conservatives: 23%
NDP: 20%
Liberals: 11%

Leger's poll was a subsample of a larger national poll.  CROP's poll was Quebec-only.  CROP's poll also shows the Tories holding their own in the Quebec City region despite opposing federal funding for a new hockey arena, trailing the Bloc by 3.

[cinyc]

If they're doing daily polls, then the numbers will bounce around wildly.

It's actually a three day tracking poll. so daily changes are based upon 1/3rd of sample - ie Daily sampe in Ontario is about 90 or so, Quebec 75 or so,  Atlantic Canada about 30 or so...

There is also the issue of not being demographically/age balanced within each subsample.

400 a day is barely enough to balance the sample nationally each day, but no where near enough for each region.

For example, Ontario may have too may men one day while Quebec might have too few.. the next day, the balance may shift, which will, in addition to (huge) random error, also cause substantial systemic error regionally.

We will (of course) look at the regional samples cause we are all junkies, but they need to be taken with a megaton of salt...

I think you're underestimating the size of Nanos' Ontario and Quebec daily samples.  If he's polling 400 people per day, Ontario's should be about 120, and Quebec's 100.  FWIW, Nanos' Prairies (which includes Alberta) should have a daily sample size of about 80, British Columbia about 60 and Atlantic Canada around 40.  

All are far too small to reach any real conclusions based on one-day trends.  Heck, even the three-day samples have regional MoEs in the 5.2% to 10.0% range - better than some other pollsters who poll 1000 or less voters nationwide, but still relatively high.  Atlantic Canada and B.C.'s MoEs are too high to make even three-day trends anything close to reliable.  Pollsters who separate Alberta from the rest of the Prairies generally get real crap subsamples in both instead of mixed results that make little sense unless unpacked.

Edited to add: I was looking at an earlier poll when I came up with the numbers.  Nanos might be polling less than 400 per day - it's hard to tell.   From this link, it appears Nanos is only polling about 313 per day, which makes your numbers closer to correct.  In any event, every subsample is far too small to reach any short-term trend conclusions.

[cinyc]

What happened to the NDP ? They were at 20% not so far ago...

Beware of statistical noise.  Tracking polls have a lot of it.  There's not a ton of difference between 16% and 20% - unless the trend continues for a number of days.

[cinyc]

Nanos today (complete with equal opportunity hack labels opposite of what you're used to seeing on this website):

Conservatives	40.7%	-0.6
Liberals	29.4%	-0.9
NDP	16.9%	+0.9
Bloc Quebecois	8.0%	-0.5
Greens	4.0%	+0.3

   

Edited: I've successfully made my point.

---

Boardbashi comment: that's nice. Please don't do it again.

[cinyc]

God, I don't hope anybody actually reported this? Megasilly.

No, but I think Al's right in preemptively preventing this thread from revolving into a fest of partisan name-calling.

I've effectively made my point and edited my original post.  It already was a fest of partisan name-calling, largely against one party only - something I was getting sick of seeing.

[cinyc]

Canadians split (54-46 in favor) on the idea of a NDP-Liberal coalition government: http://www.globalnews.ca/story.html?id=4545230

I'd like to see the question wording.  A NDP-Liberal coalition government is something that's totally different than a coalition that includes or needs the support of the Bloc Quebecois to govern - and I suspect you'd get different results depending on how the question is asked.

Note also that this was an Ipsos internet poll, with all the usual caveats about internet polling.

[cinyc]

Somebody on the door to door run told me he was voting only because he was pissed with Harper's lies on coalitions. One of my profs as well.

The Ipsos Internet poll claims only 38% believe it when Iggy's says he would not form a coalition.  Well, at least to the extent an Internet poll is credible in the first place, I suppose.

[cinyc]

Today's Nanos - Tory domination:

Conservative	42.3%	+1.6
Liberal	28.4%	-1.0
NDP	16.4%	-0.5
BQ	8.0%	NC    -
Green	3.8%	-0.2

   

[cinyc]

Slightly off topic I suppose, but is any party talking about electoral reform of any sort, campaigning on it at all? Do Canadians even care about the shortcomings of their FPTP system?

I know the Conservatives are talking about abolishing the public campaign finance system, but I don't think any but the smaller parties (NDP and Greens) would want to move to proportional representation at this point.

[cinyc]

Today's Nanos shows little change, with Dippers moving most:

Conservative	39.7%	-0.1
Liberal	29.9%	-0.3
NDP	17.4%	+0.9
BQ	8.3%	NC    -
Green	3.8%	-0.2

[cinyc]

Next Nanos - not much change.

Conservative	39.6%	-0.1
Liberal	30.4%	+0.5
NDP	17.2%	-0.2
BQ	8.3%	NC    -
Green	3.2%	-0.6

(3 days ending April 6)

[cinyc]

Friday Nanos - Dippers Dip:

Conservative	40.6%	+1.0
Liberal	31.1%	+0.7
NDP	14.9%	-2.3
BQ	8.7%	+0.4
Green	3.4%	+0.2

(3 days ending April 7)

[cinyc]

Does anyone know if the election will be on any channel in the US?

I watched it live on CSPAN 3 last go round... been planning to do the same this time. Let's hope.

C-SPAN has also shown the debates in the past, or at least the English one - though perhaps tape-delayed.  The English language debate is this Tuesday.  The French language debate has been moved up to Wednesday to avoid a conflict with a Montreal Canadiens playoff game on Thursday.  If C-SPAN does not show the debate, it will likely be streamed on cpac.ca, Canada's C-SPAN equivalent.

IIRC, CPAC has streamed its election night coverage in the past.  But I can't remember when it began, since it's illegal to release results from eastern Canada in provinces where polling is still ongoing.

[cinyc]

Today's Nanos:

Conservative	39.5%	-1.0
Liberal	31.6%	-0.1
NDP	14.7%	+1.5
BQ	8.1%	-1.1
Green	4.8%	+0.8

(3 days ending April 9)

Trends are from yesterday, which I forgot to post - though I guess you can easily figure it out from the trend.  The race has tightened in Ontario - which may be all that really matters on election day.

[cinyc]

CPAC will have free Internet coverage, CBC, and likely CTV will too.

As the above poster said, it is illegal to broadcast results until after the final polls close.

Elections Canada, the official election agency (the ones who count the ballots) will also have live streaming results but no TV or Radio style coverage

It's legal for, say, ATV in the Atlantic Provinces to broadcast results to the Maritimes after the polls close there.  It would be illegal for them to broadcast results to B.C. or Ontario, where the polls would still be open.  I always wonder whether this means the cable and satellite companies have to black out the time-shift TV stations out West for the night.

[cinyc]

Today's Nanos - a wild swing to Tories and Dippers:

Conservative	41.2%	+1.7
Liberal	30.4%	-1.2
NDP	15.2%	+0.5
BQ	7.8%	-0.3
Green	4.6%	-0.2

(3 days ending April 10)

[cinyc]

I'm surprised anyone thought Iggy won the debate.  Whoever did must be a hard partisan.  I thought he came across as snarling, hyper and entitled.  Harper remained pretty calm throughout, and in that sense, he won for not losing his cool and looking like the Prime Minister.  He also stayed on message throughout - it's the economy stupid.  Layton probably scored more rhetorical points than the other 3 - though Duceppe had his moments too.  It's just that the overwhelming majority of people who watched the English-language debate can't even vote for Duceppe's party, rendering him an afterthought.

[cinyc]

Today's Nanos - Toryslide as a good polling day for the CPC falls off.  The Bloc is also hit hard downward.  Dippers gain most:

Canada Trendline

Conservative	38.9%	-1.0
Liberal	31.1%	+0.7
NDP	18.3%	+2.0
BQ	7.5%	-1.6
Green	3.1%	-0.7

(3 days ending April 13)

[cinyc]

Tories steady, Grits drop, dippers on a roll.....

The Dippers' "Not So Great Canadian Moments" ads are very good - true comparison ads that start negative, but end positive.  The Conservative's ad campaign is also good, but more negative.  The Liberals' ads stink - disjointed with no coherent message.

[cinyc]

What's with the focus on human smuggling in the Conservative ads? Is that really an important issue in Canada?

There have been at least two refugee ships that landed in B.C. over the past few years.  Once the smuggled individuals land in Canada, they usually make a refugee claim and can stay in the country pending a hearing.  Most often, they are released from custody almost immediately.  And it costs something like $150,000 to process each claim.  So there's little deterrence to trying to get into Canada via the back door, and it's costly to process them.

I think Conservatives are raising this issue in part to argue that they are supposedly tough on crime while the other parties who blocked their proposed reform bill aren't.  I suppose the issue is also partially geared toward galvanizing those who have jumped through the hoops to legally emigrate to Canada.  People who abuse the system get in immediately, why they have a difficult time getting their own family in legally.  Of course, that strategy could easily backfire.

This is probably a bigger issue in B.C. than elsewhere - except perhaps, Quebec, where immigration from non-French speaking areas isn't very well liked.  Quebec wants full control over immigration there - but that's a whole different issue.

[cinyc]

This is probably a bigger issue in B.C. than elsewhere - except perhaps, Quebec, where immigration from non-French speaking areas isn't very well liked.  Quebec wants full control over immigration there - but that's a whole different issue.

Quebec is having different ads than the rest of Canada.
Even political parties have different slogans.

See, Conservative Party.
"Here for Canada" in English
"Notre région au pouvoir" (Our region to power) in French.

NDP does the same thing.

I believe the Tory human smuggling ad was also made in French.  Whether it or any of these ads have been shown on TV is something I can't answer.  

Nor can I critique the Bloc's ads, since I don't speak French.  From what I understand, their slogan translates into something like "let's talk about Quebec", which seems pretty lame.  Why just talk about Quebec?  Do something.

What does "Our region to power" mean? Or does it just not translate well?

It means vote Conservative to put Quebec in power by electing reps in the top vote-getting party that will form the government.  By implication, voting Bloc is a waste since they will never form the government.

[cinyc]

It is hard to do things when you are in perpertual opposition and hated in the other provinces.

Refudiate: "Our region into power"? In short, it means "elect someone which is in the party in power, so your region participates in the exercise of the power."

Which is lies, since the only regions which was power are Calgary, Tar Sands Land and Bible Belt.

Eh, the Bloc's slogan opens them up to the accusation that all they do is talk, not get results.  I know the Liberals are using it against them - as they should.  It's not a great slogan.

[cinyc]

Today's Nanos - More of the Same:

Conservative	38.8%	+0.1
Liberal	28.8%	NC    -
NDP	19.2%	+0.6
BQ	8.5%	-0.5
Green	3.4%	-0.3

(3 days ending April 15)

[cinyc]

Some Nanos weekend weirdness, this time predominantly boosting the Bloc at the expense of the Liberals and Dippers:

Conservative	39.0%	+0.2
Liberal	28.3%	-0.5
NDP	18.4%	-0.8
BQ	9.6%	+1.1
Green	3.6%	+0.2

(3 days ending April 16)