Canada 2011 Official Thread (user search)
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April 27, 2024, 08:18:25 PM
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Author Topic: Canada 2011 Official Thread  (Read 135014 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« on: March 26, 2011, 08:35:01 PM »
If the NDP can hit 35% in Ontario and Quebec (and that is very unlikely) they would start picking up seats by the bucketfull.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2011, 07:12:45 AM »
Weather you consider the Liberals left or not depends on if you go by their platform, policies, and statements, or weather you go by their governing record.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2011, 07:46:32 AM »
If you were to suggest a combined public-private health system, you'd be called a radical right-winger in Canada, and a radical left-winger in the US. When you take those things out, you see that Martin, and even Chretien, were pretty well moderates, but Trudeau was a socialist.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2011, 05:06:00 AM »
The NDP will gain seats if the Liberals are weak, and the Liberals are currently weak. When it comes clear that Harper will win a majority, people will be "free" to switch to the party they "truly" support. Some of the NDP's best elections have been during Majority governments, because there is no pressure to vote for Party A to keep Party B out.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2011, 01:17:31 AM »
Each PDF file breaks down the poll. You never see a national-only poll, at least, in 26 years of my life, I've never ever seen one.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2011, 07:29:35 PM »
My own personal hand-made predictor: http://www.ridingbyriding.ca/ElectoMatic/ELECTOMATIC.xlsx
is accurate.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2011, 09:30:06 AM »
BREAKING - Election cancelled http://www.ridingbyriding.ca/2011/04/01/737
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2011, 11:25:03 PM »
One poll has the Tories going down and the Liberals going up. Another shows the exact reverse. The remainder are too rare to quantify.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2011, 09:03:54 PM »
The margins are large enough to be significant.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2011, 09:04:54 PM »
Quote from: Honest Abe on April 09, 2011, 02:04:38 PM
All these polls seem to confirm the Conservatives have an 8 to 10 point lead over the Liberals.

Is this an indication the Conservatives could possibly be in a good position to win a majority?

Thoughts?

National polls are meaningless in Canada, it all depends on where that support is coming from, and by that, I mean Ontario.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2011, 12:37:03 AM »
Not really. There were a number a few years back showing the NDP leading in random Quebec ridings. They are only good so long as you add 10 points for fuzz.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2011, 07:14:39 AM »
CPAC will have free Internet coverage, CBC, and likely CTV will too.

As the above poster said, it is illegal to broadcast results until after the final polls close.

Elections Canada, the official election agency (the ones who count the ballots) will also have live streaming results but no TV or Radio style coverage
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #12 on: April 11, 2011, 07:34:54 PM »
These are some of the lowest BQ numbers I've ever seen!
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2011, 12:06:02 AM »
Quote from: Comrade Sibboleth on April 11, 2011, 11:40:49 PM
No one knows what the hell is going on in Quebec in any election.

I've edited your quote to be more true to us anglos.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #14 on: April 12, 2011, 06:04:27 PM »
The Debates are occurring right now.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2011, 07:50:46 PM »
I've not seen any knock out punches / debate home runs
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #16 on: April 12, 2011, 09:39:44 PM »
My maps are better because they have the name of all ridings:








The are free for any use. Edit them, colour them, turn them upside down, print them out and stick them up your bum - I could care less.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #17 on: April 12, 2011, 09:40:34 PM »
Also sorry for double posting, and, for tablebreaking.

This entire page is sizebroken so I'm trying to run out the page so that we can get back to normal sizage.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #18 on: April 12, 2011, 09:41:09 PM »
running out the page.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #19 on: April 12, 2011, 10:31:26 PM »
My map predictions are explained on my website.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #20 on: April 12, 2011, 10:31:53 PM »
I posted them mostly for the base maps.

Edit them as you wish.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #21 on: April 12, 2011, 11:21:04 PM »
The debate has produced one loser: Elizabeth May. The Debate was “interesting” and relevant, issues were discussed. Unlike the snorefests of past years, this debate had meaning. May loses by not being there.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2011, 09:33:18 AM »
The Bloc is big on this whole Quebecois as an ethnicity stuff. They get a ton of support from that group, but little from others. Frankly, I think the Bloc would do as well outside Quebec as they do with Anglos in Quebec.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2011, 08:31:59 PM »
Quote from: Comrade Sibboleth on April 13, 2011, 07:15:07 PM

Quote from: Hatman on April 13, 2011, 06:58:49 PM
I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming?

Sadly not the Ontario NDP Sad

You know a lot more about politics here than I give you credit for.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2011, 08:46:40 PM »
As you said yourself, class difference is not something that is really of importance here in Canada. Similar to the US. Beyond that, Quebec's voting patterns have never made sense compared to English countries. There is no difference it seems between urban and rural - at least the difference is very minor compared to the huge difference in English Canada.

The Liberals here are very different to the Liberals elsewhere because ours are very hungry. In the 20's they gobbled up the top half of the Progressives. Organizers, Staffers, even some MP's. Progressives who were "in" became Liberals. The remainder split between the CCF (mostly) and a few went on to help make the Conservatives officially Progressive.

The Liberals have also been able to gobble up those voters who in 1988 would have voted NDP. The moderate middle class, perhaps even "working class". The NDP is still fighting to get them back.

Now what's starting to happen is the Liberals are beginning to gobble up the Green Party.

Our Liberals are the most successful Liberal party in the world because they are highly adaptive.
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