A 2008 Interactive Timeline - Gameplay Thread

[tmthforu94]

2008

In the mid-1980's, the 22nd amendment was officially amended so that Presidents may seek up to three terms, instead of the original two. Despite this, President's Reagan and Clinton both decided not to seek a third term.

In the 2006 midterm elections, Democrats made huge gains, winning back the House. However, a narrow loss by Jim Webb in Virginia prevented Democrats from taking the Senate.

Democratic Candidates:
Hillary Clinton - Napoleon
Chris Dodd - Yelnoc
Joseph Lieberman - True Federalist
Bill Richardson - Sirnick
Mike Gravel - Wormyguy

Republican Candidates:
George W. Bush - Feeblepizza
Ron Paul - Jake Matthews
Donald Trump - tb75

Some Rules:
- Unlike past timelines, where you would request endorsements, that won't be the case this time. I make the final call. How well your candidate is doing determines what endorsements you'll get.
- Every few days, I'll post an update, with national polling as well as polling in leadoff states. If there is a certain state you'd like to see polled, please contact me via pm.
- This thread is for "in-game" posting only. If you have something else to say, please use it in the Sign-Up/Discussion thread.
- Want to join the game? Contact me via PM, and if it's not too late, you can join.
- You can make historical posts if you want (Ex: Posting a transcript of your announcement speech)

Start Day: July 1st, 2007

[tmthforu94]

Starting Map:

Republican Primary (National)
George W. Bush: 46%
Donald Trump: 6%
Duncan Hunter: 4%
Ron Paul: 4%

Analysis: President Bush starts off his quest for a third term with a large lead over two less-established candidates. It should be concerning to the President's campaign that he is currently under 50%, and the President will have a difficult task of convincing primary voters that he deserves to be nominated for a third term. The President certainly dodged a bullet by not garnering any well-known opponents.

Democratic Primary (National)
Hillary Clinton: 48%
Joseph Lieberman: 14%
Bill Richardson: 8%
Chris Dodd: 5%
Mike Gravel: 1%

Analysis: The former first lady starts off her quest to become the nation's first female President with a large lead over her opponents, though currently under 50%. It is crucial that Senator Clinton is prepared for the lead-off states. Losing those could provide her opponents with the momentum needed to turn this into a heated race.

[tmthforu94]

Washington - After sharp criticism was made by California Congressman Duncan Hunter on his potential opponents, PPP ran a poll, questioning voters about the comments and Duncan Hunter.

Question 1: Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Duncan Hunter?
Favorable: 16%
Unfavorable: 35%
Undecided/Unsure: 49%

Question 2: Do you believe the attacks made by Congressman Hunter on President Bush, Mr. Trump, and Congressman Paul have any merit?
Yes: 39%
No: 33%
Undecided/Unsure: 28%

Question 3: Do the comments made by Congressman Hunter make you more likely to vote for him, less likely, or about the same?
More Likely: 9%
Less Likely: 39%
About the Same: 52%

[tmthforu94]

August 1st Polling:
Generic Republican: 44%
Generic Democrat: 42%

Republicans slightly improved in the polls, as it was a strong month for the President, who started the campaign much stronger than many anticipated. Negative campaigning on the Republican side has prevented them from increasing their lead by even more. Republicans have pulled even in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, while taking a moderate lead in New Hampshire.

Republican Primary (National)
George W. Bush: 45%
Mark Sanford: 14%
Ron Paul: 9%
Donald Trump: 8%
Duncan Hunter: 5%

Republican Primary (Iowa)
George W. Bush: 40%
Ron Paul: 17%
Mark Sanford: 12%
Donald Trump: 11%
Duncan Hunter: 1%

Analysis: In the first month of campaigning, President Bush was able to maintain roughly the same percentage of the Republican vote. The President has done a good job defending his decision to run for a third term, but a weak economy and the public souring on the Iraq war is causing the President to still remain below 50%. In mid-July, South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford entered the Presidential race, and was able to sway many Southernors who were previously undecided into his camp. Both Ron Paul and Donald Trump made strong starts to their campaigns, nearing 10% nationally. Duncan Hunter started his race getting a lot of attention and potentially becoming the "Anti-Bush" candidate, but has since failed to maintain that momentum.

Democratic Primary (National)
Hillary Clinton: 44%
Chris Dodd: 18%
Joseph Lieberman: 13%
Mike Gravel: 2%

Democratic Primary (Iowa)
Hillary Clinton: 35%
Chris Dodd: 28%
Joseph Lieberman: 10%
Mike Gravel: 2%

Analysis: At the start of this campaign, Hillary Clinton looked to be the presumptive Democratic nominee. However, that soon changed, as Chris Dodd charged onto the scene, running an upbeat and aggressive campaign, heavily focused on denting Senator Clinton's lead in Iowa. Senator Clinton began her campaign with an impressive announcement speech and a strong interview with Bill O'Reilly, and her position with moderate Democrats has greatly improved. Senator Lieberman seems poised to be making a run as well, and looks to already have the support of former Vice President Albert Gore. Bill Richardson had a good start of his campaign, but financing never materialized, and he dropped out by the end of the month. Mike Gravel has stayed pretty well out of the spotlight, but has certainly produced some interesting advertisements.

Endorsement List:

President George W. Bush:
Vice President Dick Cheney
Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
Senator Judd Gregg

Ron Paul:
Barry Goldwater Jr.
Gary Johnson

Donald Trump:
Gene Chapman
Linda McMahon and Vince McMahon

Mark Sanford:
Joe Wilson

Duncan Hunter:
None

Hillary Clinton:
Bill Clinton
Blanche Lincoln
Chuck Schumer
Evan Bayh
Robert Byrd
Joe Manchin

Chris Dodd:
Paul Simon
Chris Murphy
Steve Martin
Ned Lamont
John Kerry

Joseph Lierbman:
Al Gore

Mike Gravel:
None

New Rule: You can pm me endorsement requests, just so I can get an idea of who you'd like. Doesn't mean you'll get them all, though.

[tmthforu94]

This morning, PPP released a poll from the state of Connecticut, both Republican and Democrat. Connecticut is a highly anticipated state, with both Democratic Senators from the state seeking the Presidency.

Republicans (Connecticut)
George W. Bush: 38%
Donald Trump: 15%
Ron Paul: 9%
Mark Sanford: 5%
Duncan Hunter: 3%

Analysis: With the advantage of incumbmency and a long history in the state of Connecticut, President Bush has a comfortable lead in the state of Connecticut, though Donald Trump is also performing well in this Northeastern state.

Democrats (Connecticut)
Chris Dodd: 29%
Hillary Clinton: 24%
Joseph Lieberman: 19%
Mike Gravel: 1%

Analysis: This could be one of the closest states in the nation for the Democratic candidates. Both Chris Dodd and Joseph Lieberman perform well in the state, as does Hillary Clinton. Momentum will play a huge factor, as any of the main three candidates could win this state.

General Election Head-to-Head Polling:
George W. Bush: 39%
Hillary Clinton: 46%

George W. Bush: 40%
Chris Dodd: 47%

George W. Bush: 37%
Joseph Lieberman: 47%

Donald Trump: 32%
Chris Dodd: 44%

Donald Trump: 31%
Hillary Clinton: 40%

Donald Trump: 34%
Joseph Lieberman: 48%

Analysis: George W. Bush is clearly the Republicans best chance at winning the state of Connecticut, but it'll be an uphill climb. Joseph Lieberman would be the best general election candidate for the Democrats here, as he performs the strongest among Independent voters.

[tmthforu94]

After statements made by Ron Paul in New Hampshire, Congressman Paul is slammed by Keith Olberman on CNN...

Doctor Paul, as he likes to be called, always harps on the significance of the Constitution and how important it is. He first criticizes Congress for amending the Constitution, and wants that in the future term-limits could be abolished completely! If preserving the Constitution is so important to Congressman Paul, he should support a repeal of term limits, for there weren't any term limits when the Constitution was written. That didn't come until the 22nd amendment.  On top of that, Doctor Paul professes to say there were 17 amendments to the Constitution, when in reality, there are 27! Learn the document you love so much, Doctor Paul!

Polling down the next day by a small polling firm that this gaffe by Congressman Paul doesn't really affect the voters, as only 18% of voters said it would make them less likely to vote for the Congressman.

[tmthforu94]

New Hampshire Primary Polling

This morning, PPP released a poll from the state of New Hampshire, both Republican and Democrat.

Republicans (New Hampshire)
George W. Bush: 32%
Ron Paul: 15%
Donald Trump: 14%
Mark Sanford: 7%
Duncan Hunter: 3%


Democrats (New Hampshire)
Hillary Clinton: 34%
Chris Dodd: 22%
Joseph Lieberman: 11%
Mike Gravel: 1%

[tmthforu94]

After Donald Trump's exit and endorsement of Mark Sanford, the gap continues to close between the South Carolina Governor and the President.

Republican Primary (National)
George W. Bush: 42%
Mark Sanford: 21%
Ron Paul: 11%
Duncan Hunter: 3%

Chris Dodd continues to be making up significant ground against Hillary Clinton, trailing by 18 points now nationally. Will Clinton's built-in advantage in many states voting later save her nomination? Polls currently suggest Dodd having a serious shot at sweeping the leadoff states of Iowa and New Hampshire, which under normal circumstances would guarantee someone the nomination.


Democratic Primary (National)
Hillary Clinton: 42%
Chris Dodd: 24%
Joseph Lieberman: 11%
Mike Gravel: 2%