Ohio update

[Whacker77]

Franklin County just certified their results and Kerry gained about 7000 votes.  That number also includes the computer glich that gave Bush and extra 4000 votes on election night.  As it stands now, 81 of 88 counties have reported on their provisional votes.  Kerry has gained 12,711 votes in the process.

Kerry's gain of 12,711 is due totally to two large counties, Cuyahoga and Franklin.  Kerry gained 9600 and 7000 votes from those counties respectively.  Basically, this shows what we already knew.  Democrats own the cities while Republicans control everything else.  The overall number will continue to change, but Franklin was the last big county outstanding.  The provisional acceptance rate of 78% has continued to hold firm in the state.

I also read a few snippets on the certification process ongoing in Ohio.  As per the NRO, the certification process is basically a recount.  Election officials run the ballots through the machines once again and they even check punch cards for hanging chads.  Swinging door chads are counted in the certification process.  Along with the provisionals, absentee ballots and overseas ballots are checked and verified once again.

The moral of the story is this.  Cobb, Badnarik, Jesse and Kerry have already gotten their recount.  Each ballot has been run through the machine and hanging chads have already been accounted for in the process.  When the kooks and Keith Olbermann go ahead with their quixotic request, it will results in the third counting of the votes, a re-recount.  The "treasure trove" of spoiled ballots has already been plundered by bipartisan election officials in each county.

[Alcon]

Reading what you posted, I'd almost get the idea that you actually think Kerry believes he would win.

[Whacker77]

No, I don't think Kerry believes he would win a recount.  He will have lost the state by more than 120,000 votes when the provisionals are included.  I do think he wants the recount to go forward to act as sort of thorn in the side of George W. Bush.  Basically, it gets to be his parting shot at Bush, a man he doesn't like.  I also think he's trying shore up the true believers for 2008.  As is everything with Kerry, it's quite a nuanced position!

[zorkpolitics]

The best reason to go forward with a recount is to show how ridiculous the Democratic claims that
voter fraud led to Bush's election. 
Nader recounted several ‘suspicious’ wards in NH that had optical scan ballots the result: no change.
A recount in OH will find the same thing: no significant change. 
Unfortunatley for OH taxpayers, the official fee in OH will cover lass than 10% of the recount cost, leaving OH taxpayers stuck the tab.

[Democratic Hawk]

Even if Ohio proved so close as to remotely warrant a full recount, I hope Kerry and others don't request it because in the unlikely event of Kerry winning Ohio - I wouldn't want to see him President with less votes, nationally, than Bush

Bush's won re-election with a majority of the PV, which basically reflects his EV tally. The Democrats need to focus their energies on congressional and gubnatorial elections in 2006 in preparation for 2008

Dave

[rbt48]

In Ohio, a recount is triggered automatically when the margin of victory is within 0.25%.  The final margin is actually 2.11%, or 8 1/2 times the recount threshhold.   In raw vote numbers, it would need to be a victory margin of 14,064 or less.  Instead, the margin is 118,775.  There are many close elections each cycle.  Ohio in 2004 is not among the closest.  Kerry won Wisconsin and New Hampshire by smaller percentages.  Of course since Bush won nationwide, the issue of a recount in those states is meaningless.  Even so, had Bush lost the election, neither NH (9,309 or 1.37%) or WI  (11,384 or 0.38%) would have been recounted.  At least that is my belief.