Will the next decade really be bad for Dems?

[JacobNC]

With the GOP holding control of 3/5 of governorships and state legislatures, some people are saying the Dems won't have a chance at winning back a majority in the House over the next decade.  But is there any truth to that?  Let's look at a few states...

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Florida, and Virginia are all big states which were already heavily gerrymandered in favor of Republicans this past decade.  Of those states, Republicans will draw the lines in PA, OH, MI, and VA... so at least it can't get any worse, right?  They may try to kill a few dem seats but it won't be easy considering how much the lines already favor the GOP.

Illinois is one state where Dems could make big gains.  Right now Republicans control 11-8.  I could see the Democrats controlling this state 13-5 or even 14-4 (it can be done... and Democrats control everything when it comes to redistricting) after it's over, giving the Democrats 5 or 6 new seats.

Florida is supposed to have an "independent commission" for redistricting.  I'm not sure exactly what that means, but if it means unbiased redistricting Dems are bound to pick up a few seats.  Right now Republicans control 19-6, and Florida is a near evenly split state.  In a perfect world the new delegation would be 14-13 GOP, but there are too many majority minority districts to do that.  Dems should be able to pick up at least a few seats here.

Republicans in ME and NH may try to shore up a district for the GOP, leaving one for the Dems in each state (that would be a Dem gain in NH and a loss in ME).  Democrats would probably lose a seat in IN, GA, maybe TN, MO, IA, and potentially 2 in NC (although the blue dogs do a good job of holding on to conservative districts in NC).  The Democrats could, however, pick up a seat in AR and WV, since Democrats hold governorships and legislatures in both states - even a supermajority in WV's legislature.  Dems could potentially make gains in WA, MD, CO, NV, and maybe a couple of seats in CA.

Bottom line... don't count Democrats out.  There are almost as many opportunities for Democratic pickups as there are for GOP pickups.  Democrats do, however, have quite a mountain to climb in order to take back the house.  I doubt they'll get 25, or even a dozen seats in 2012.

[freepcrusher]

i'm optimistic it won't be too bad. 20 years ago, the democrats had 60% of all the u.s. house seats and controlled a lot more state legislatures and yet still lost the house in 1994.

[krazen1211]

Florida is supposed to have an "independent commission" for redistricting.  I'm not sure exactly what that means, but if it means unbiased redistricting Dems are bound to pick up a few seats.  Right now Republicans control 19-6, and Florida is a near evenly split state.  In a perfect world the new delegation would be 14-13 GOP, but there are too many majority minority districts to do that.  Dems should be able to pick up at least a few seats here.

It's not an independent commission; its a set of guidelines. The lines are still drawn by legislators. The Democratic party of Florida unfortunately both stinks and has all its strength concentrated in a small number of areas; I doubt they get more than 2 seats.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No, not really. Not as bad as the 1990's redistricting was for the Dems.

[Mississippi Political Freak]

Florida is supposed to have an "independent commission" for redistricting.  I'm not sure exactly what that means, but if it means unbiased redistricting Dems are bound to pick up a few seats.  Right now Republicans control 19-6, and Florida is a near evenly split state.  In a perfect world the new delegation would be 14-13 GOP, but there are too many majority minority districts to do that.  Dems should be able to pick up at least a few seats here.

As krazen1211 has bentioned, Amendment 6 merely sets some constraints on the GOP legislature, which still draws the districts.  From the perspective of a left-leaning realist, while I wish the Dems would be more competitive for the congressional races in Florida, their geographical distributions (concentrated in Palm Beach and Broward counties, non-Hispanic parts of Miami-Dade, minority and white liberal portions of Orlando, Tampa and St. Petersburg metro areas, black and college areas of North Florida) mean that while being competitive for presidential and statewide races, they tend to be at a disadvantage on district-based races like the US House or the State Legislature, as attested by my on-going series of my proposed state legislature redistricting maps.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Florida is supposed to have an "independent commission" for redistricting.  I'm not sure exactly what that means, but if it means unbiased redistricting Dems are bound to pick up a few seats.  Right now Republicans control 19-6, and Florida is a near evenly split state.  In a perfect world the new delegation would be 14-13 GOP, but there are too many majority minority districts to do that.  Dems should be able to pick up at least a few seats here.

It's not an independent commission; its a set of guidelines. The lines are still drawn by legislators. The Democratic party of Florida unfortunately both stinks and has all its strength concentrated in a small number of areas; I doubt they get more than 2 seats.

Figures that the Republicans in the Republican controlled states get to control everything, meanwhile California Democrats are underrepresented on the redistricting commission.

[memphis]

Heck no. The way the GOP has been embracing crazy, 2012 looks to be a great year.

[Frodo]

It will be especially for those rural Democrats in the South -I fully expect that Arkansas will eventually be under the complete control of the GOP by the end of this decade (combined with the North Carolina and Missouri governor's mansions, and the Kentucky House), and Republicans will be making significant inroads into West Virginia, perhaps being in the position that the Arkansas GOP is in today -not in control but nonetheless a force to be reckoned with and included in decision-making. 

[JacobNC]

It will be especially for those rural Democrats in the South -I fully expect that Arkansas will eventually be under the complete control of the GOP by the end of this decade (combined with the North Carolina and Missouri governor's mansions, and the Kentucky House), and Republicans will be making significant inroads into West Virginia, perhaps being in the position that the Arkansas GOP is in today -not in control but nonetheless a force to be reckoned with and included in decision-making. 

Democrats in Arkansas are endangered, and if I were the Arkansas Legislature (which has large Dem majorities in both houses), I would be gerrymandering away right now.

http: //washingtonexaminer.com/news/2011/03/analysis-arkansas-redistricting-messy-fight

...but I'm afraid they're not.  I'm guessing this legislature is full of conservative Democrats who just want more Mike Rosses, but they can create a minority majority district if they want to and I don't see why they're so afraid of the Republicans....

[krazen1211]

Florida is supposed to have an "independent commission" for redistricting.  I'm not sure exactly what that means, but if it means unbiased redistricting Dems are bound to pick up a few seats.  Right now Republicans control 19-6, and Florida is a near evenly split state.  In a perfect world the new delegation would be 14-13 GOP, but there are too many majority minority districts to do that.  Dems should be able to pick up at least a few seats here.

It's not an independent commission; its a set of guidelines. The lines are still drawn by legislators. The Democratic party of Florida unfortunately both stinks and has all its strength concentrated in a small number of areas; I doubt they get more than 2 seats.

Figures that the Republicans in the Republican controlled states get to control everything, meanwhile California Democrats are underrepresented on the redistricting commission.

Life isn't fair. In Florida's case, though, that doesn't matter much. Hard to imagine myself how the Democrats get anything more than Allen West's seat (Fl-22), Bill Young's seat (FL-10), and whatever new seat sucks up Orlando/Kissimee. Although they might lose FL-3, so that last is a wash; it really depends how the GOP handles Gainesville and splits Jacksonville/Duval.

[freepcrusher]

well considering that registered democrats outnumber registered republicans in florida, it doesn't seem out of the question to pick up between anywhere between 3-7 seats.

[Horus]

well considering that registered democrats outnumber registered republicans in florida, it doesn't seem out of the question to pick up between anywhere between 3-7 seats.

Idk about 3-7, I'd say more like 3-5. And part of that statistic is the last remnants of the North Florida Dixiecrats... but Florida Dems have nowhere to go but up.

[krazen1211]

well considering that registered democrats outnumber registered republicans in florida, it doesn't seem out of the question to pick up between anywhere between 3-7 seats.

Not out of the question, no, but not altogether that likely either.

All those Democrats sit in  Palm Beach/Broward Counties and a small other handful of areas.

Pairing Gainesville with some bloodred territory is a no brainer. Gainesville college wackos will nominate some uberleftist who won't be that competitive in any general election.

[Dgov]

Yeah, remember that the Democrats have a huge concentration problem in Florida.  The State is like a sea of Light Republicanism spotted with overwhelmingly Democratic sections.  To put it another way, I don't think its possible to draw an Obama-seat outside of Tampa/st Petersburg, Orlando, or Miami area (and maybe jacksonville if done right) without overtly partisan county splits.

You also have to remember that the Republicans are still drawing the map, just with stricter guidelines.  The Dems will probably pick up a gimme seat in Orlando, maybe FL-22, and that's about it (and Bill Young's seat when he retires maybe).  Its not like the State's 19-6 Republicans JUST because they draw the map

[Mississippi Political Freak]

Yeah, remember that the Democrats have a huge concentration problem in Florida.  The State is like a sea of Light Republicanism spotted with overwhelmingly Democratic sections.  To put it another way, I don't think its possible to draw an Obama-seat outside of Tampa/st Petersburg, Orlando, or Miami area (and maybe jacksonville if done right) without overtly partisan county splits.

You also have to remember that the Republicans are still drawing the map, just with stricter guidelines.  The Dems will probably pick up a gimme seat in Orlando, maybe FL-22, and that's about it (and Bill Young's seat when he retires maybe).  Its not like the State's 19-6 Republicans JUST because they draw the map

That's exactly echoes my assessment  on the electoral prospects of Florida's Dems.  They will be frequently competitive at Presidential and Statewide (US Senate, Governor and State Cabinet ) levels, but tend to struggle mightily on district-based races like the US House and the State Legislature, even with geographically compact and continuous seats.