Will the next decade really be bad for Dems?

[JacobNC]

With the GOP holding control of 3/5 of governorships and state legislatures, some people are saying the Dems won't have a chance at winning back a majority in the House over the next decade.  But is there any truth to that?  Let's look at a few states...

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Florida, and Virginia are all big states which were already heavily gerrymandered in favor of Republicans this past decade.  Of those states, Republicans will draw the lines in PA, OH, MI, and VA... so at least it can't get any worse, right?  They may try to kill a few dem seats but it won't be easy considering how much the lines already favor the GOP.

Illinois is one state where Dems could make big gains.  Right now Republicans control 11-8.  I could see the Democrats controlling this state 13-5 or even 14-4 (it can be done... and Democrats control everything when it comes to redistricting) after it's over, giving the Democrats 5 or 6 new seats.

Florida is supposed to have an "independent commission" for redistricting.  I'm not sure exactly what that means, but if it means unbiased redistricting Dems are bound to pick up a few seats.  Right now Republicans control 19-6, and Florida is a near evenly split state.  In a perfect world the new delegation would be 14-13 GOP, but there are too many majority minority districts to do that.  Dems should be able to pick up at least a few seats here.

Republicans in ME and NH may try to shore up a district for the GOP, leaving one for the Dems in each state (that would be a Dem gain in NH and a loss in ME).  Democrats would probably lose a seat in IN, GA, maybe TN, MO, IA, and potentially 2 in NC (although the blue dogs do a good job of holding on to conservative districts in NC).  The Democrats could, however, pick up a seat in AR and WV, since Democrats hold governorships and legislatures in both states - even a supermajority in WV's legislature.  Dems could potentially make gains in WA, MD, CO, NV, and maybe a couple of seats in CA.

Bottom line... don't count Democrats out.  There are almost as many opportunities for Democratic pickups as there are for GOP pickups.  Democrats do, however, have quite a mountain to climb in order to take back the house.  I doubt they'll get 25, or even a dozen seats in 2012.

[JacobNC]

It will be especially for those rural Democrats in the South -I fully expect that Arkansas will eventually be under the complete control of the GOP by the end of this decade (combined with the North Carolina and Missouri governor's mansions, and the Kentucky House), and Republicans will be making significant inroads into West Virginia, perhaps being in the position that the Arkansas GOP is in today -not in control but nonetheless a force to be reckoned with and included in decision-making. 

Democrats in Arkansas are endangered, and if I were the Arkansas Legislature (which has large Dem majorities in both houses), I would be gerrymandering away right now.

http: //washingtonexaminer.com/news/2011/03/analysis-arkansas-redistricting-messy-fight

...but I'm afraid they're not.  I'm guessing this legislature is full of conservative Democrats who just want more Mike Rosses, but they can create a minority majority district if they want to and I don't see why they're so afraid of the Republicans....