How much trouble is the Democratic Party In...?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gosh, this love and tolerance from a liberal just make me so warm and fuzzy, that I just want to join his political party.

Opebo is no liberal

[MODU]

Gosh, this love and tolerance from a liberal just make me so warm and fuzzy, that I just want to join his political party.

Opebo is no liberal

Agreed. 

[A18]

foreign policy issues will decrease in importance temporarily until the trend of global unity between democracies begins to clearly conflict with our sovereignty, at which point this will become THE issue until the World Union is firmly established.

There isn't going to be a World Union. That pipedream is about as serious as the European Union annexing America.

[The Vorlon]

^^^^^^^

[/b][/size]

Quoting from the Bill of Rights.  This is good.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Democratic Party isn't in trouble... they did well in the State Legislatures this year and all things (like the re-gerrymandering of Texas and the fact that the Minority Leader hams up the whole SF Liberal thing to avoid a primary challenge...) considered did well in the House... so at lower levels things aren't that bad.

The problem is the lack of any real organisation at national level, etc, etc, etc.

[Sam Spade]

The Democratic Party isn't in trouble... they did well in the State Legislatures this year and all things (like the re-gerrymandering of Texas and the fact that the Minority Leader hams up the whole SF Liberal thing to avoid a primary challenge...) considered did well in the House... so at lower levels things aren't that bad.

The problem is the lack of any real organisation at national level, etc, etc, etc.

I agree on the state legislatures.  The issue there is that most of the people on the state legislature level who are Democrats are at odds with what much of the national party stands for right now.

This will continue to hurt them in Senate races and at the national level in Red states or weak Blue states as long as the Republicans go with the successful tactic of nationalizing state elections (as they have in 2002 and 2004).

The House is so gerrymandered, any real major changes (barring a 1994-style event) are pretty much impossible until 2012.  The GOP picked up four seats in Texas through the DeLay gerrymander.  The rest of the country returned the exact same representation as before.  Dems picked up a seat in Colorado and knocked off an incumbent in Georgia.  GOP picked up a seat in Kentucky and knocked off an incumbent in Indiana. 

Two open seats are up for grabs in Louisiana, one Dem, one GOP.  If the GOP wins both seats, they're +1 for the year outside of Texas and can really dampen Dem morale, as the Dems will only control one House seat in Lousiana (in New Orleans).  If the Dems win both seats, they're +1 for the year outside of Texas and can stop the bleeding for now.

I have now just listed all of the interesting business in the House for the 2004 election.  Whoop-dee-doo.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Democratic Party isn't in trouble... they did well in the State Legislatures this year and all things (like the re-gerrymandering of Texas and the fact that the Minority Leader hams up the whole SF Liberal thing to avoid a primary challenge...) considered did well in the House... so at lower levels things aren't that bad.

The problem is the lack of any real organisation at national level, etc, etc, etc.

I agree on the state legislatures.  The issue there is that most of the people on the state legislature level who are Democrats are at odds with what much of the national party stands for right now.

This will continue to hurt them in Senate races and at the national level in Red states or weak Blue states as long as the Republicans go with the successful tactic of nationalizing state elections (as they have in 2002 and 2004).

The House is so gerrymandered, any real major changes (barring a 1994-style event) are pretty much impossible until 2012.  The GOP picked up four seats in Texas through the DeLay gerrymander.  The rest of the country returned the exact same representation as before.  Dems picked up a seat in Colorado and knocked off an incumbent in Georgia.  GOP picked up a seat in Kentucky and knocked off an incumbent in Kentucky. 

Like I said "all things considered".

BTW the GOP didn't knock off an incumbent in Kentucky... they did in Indiana though.

[Sam Spade]

You're right.  Change noted in my analysis above.

[Nym90]

The Democratic Party isn't in trouble... they did well in the State Legislatures this year and all things (like the re-gerrymandering of Texas and the fact that the Minority Leader hams up the whole SF Liberal thing to avoid a primary challenge...) considered did well in the House... so at lower levels things aren't that bad.

The problem is the lack of any real organisation at national level, etc, etc, etc.

I agree on the state legislatures.  The issue there is that most of the people on the state legislature level who are Democrats are at odds with what much of the national party stands for right now.

This will continue to hurt them in Senate races and at the national level in Red states or weak Blue states as long as the Republicans go with the successful tactic of nationalizing state elections (as they have in 2002 and 2004).

The House is so gerrymandered, any real major changes (barring a 1994-style event) are pretty much impossible until 2012.  The GOP picked up four seats in Texas through the DeLay gerrymander.  The rest of the country returned the exact same representation as before.  Dems picked up a seat in Colorado and knocked off an incumbent in Georgia.  GOP picked up a seat in Kentucky and knocked off an incumbent in Indiana. 

Two open seats are up for grabs in Louisiana, one Dem, one GOP.  If the GOP wins both seats, they're +1 for the year outside of Texas and can really dampen Dem morale, as the Dems will only control one House seat in Lousiana (in New Orleans).  If the Dems win both seats, they're +1 for the year outside of Texas and can stop the bleeding for now.

I have now just listed all of the interesting business in the House for the 2004 election.  Whoop-dee-doo.

Actually the Democrats made a net gain of 2 seats nationally outside of Texas. You forgot that the Dems beat a GOP incumbent in Illinois and won an open seat in New York.

[CARLHAYDEN]

You forget that there are still two seats up (Louisiana CDs 3 and 7).

The odds are currently running about 9/1 that the Republicans will win at least one of the seats, and a little better than 50/50 they will win both.

So, if the Republicans win both seats in Lousiana, your posting will have proven to be incorrect.

[A18]

You forget that there are still two seats up (Louisiana CDs 3 and 7).

The odds are currently running about 9/1 that the Republicans will win at least one of the seats, and a little better than 50/50 they will win both.

So, if the Republicans win both seats in Lousiana, your posting will have proven to be incorrect.

When will those be decided?

[KEmperor]

You forget that there are still two seats up (Louisiana CDs 3 and 7).

The odds are currently running about 9/1 that the Republicans will win at least one of the seats, and a little better than 50/50 they will win both.

So, if the Republicans win both seats in Lousiana, your posting will have proven to be incorrect.

When will those be decided?

This weekend, I believe.,

[The Vorlon]

In Louisiana 03

Tauzin (R) got 32% vs Melancon (d) who got 24%

Total of all GOP candidates was 59%, so this seat looks string for the GOP

In Lousiania 07

Boustany (R) got 39% vs Mount (D) who got 25%

However total Dem vote was 51% vs 49% GOP - Flip a coin on this one, though with lower runoff turnout the Dem may have a tiny edge, though Vitter getting 51% for the GOP in the senate race is a very positive GOP sign.

Runoffs in Louisiana are, to put it mildly, hard to predict.  The state polls badly, and turnout is like a yo-you so you don't even really know what your even trying to sample...

[TheWildCard]

I would break it down like this.

On a national level the bad news for the Democrats is

They have the lowest amount of Senators since the Hoover administration, they lost their Senate leader, they do not control the house... again and they lost the Presidential election.

The good news is

Uh... They can... Uhhh.... Filibuster?

I believe they can return to national dominence by simply getting some new blood into the DNC... Preferably someone who does not "hate" the Republicans but looks at the situation more from a business point of view. Also, nominating someone like Bayh or Richardson would probably bring them back to the whit house in '08.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Total of all GOP candidates was 59%, so this seat looks string for the GOP

In theory... In the LA-5 runoff two years ago the combined GOP total was similer... may have been higher.

[CARLHAYDEN]

In Louisiana 03

Tauzin (R) got 32% vs Melancon (d) who got 24%

Total of all GOP candidates was 59%, so this seat looks string for the GOP

In Lousiania 07

Boustany (R) got 39% vs Mount (D) who got 25%

However total Dem vote was 51% vs 49% GOP - Flip a coin on this one, though with lower runoff turnout the Dem may have a tiny edge, though Vitter getting 51% for the GOP in the senate race is a very positive GOP sign.

Runoffs in Louisiana are, to put it mildly, hard to predict.  The state polls badly, and turnout is like a yo-you so you don't even really know what your even trying to sample...

While what you note of the actual vote totals in the first election is true, your conclusions are a little open to question.

In the 3rd, Tauzin's initial campaign was very hard on the other Republican (who has declined to endorese him).

In the 7th, Mount conspired with the state party to shiv the other major Democrat in the race (Cravins), who has declined to endorse her.

I suspect that That Tauzin III will eke out a victory in the 3rd, and the Boustanay will beat Mount decisively in the 7th.

[CARLHAYDEN]

You forget that there are still two seats up (Louisiana CDs 3 and 7).

The odds are currently running about 9/1 that the Republicans will win at least one of the seats, and a little better than 50/50 they will win both.

So, if the Republicans win both seats in Lousiana, your posting will have proven to be incorrect.

When will those be decided?

Saturday, December 4, 2004.  If the major TV news media doesn't cover the results, you can conclude the Republicans won both races.

[Sam Spade]

Actually the Democrats made a net gain of 2 seats nationally outside of Texas. You forgot that the Dems beat a GOP incumbent in Illinois and won an open seat in New York.

You are correct as I overlooked Phil Crane in Illinois 8 and the open seat in NY 27. 

I also made the mistake that the GOP picked up 5 seats in Texas due to the gerrymander.

I hate to be wrong on stuff like these.

[The Vorlon]

Here is a link to what will be constantly updated Louisiania House Runnoff results.

http://www.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=120404

I'll go out on a limb and say the GOP takes both seats tonight.

03 by a good bit, 07 in a squeeker.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here is a link to what will be constantly updated Louisiania House Runnoff results.

http://www.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=120404

I'll go out on a limb and say the GOP takes both seats tonight.

03 by a good bit, 07 in a squeeker.

Logically you're spot on methinks... but as these are the two Cajun districts...

[The Vorlon]

Here is a link to what will be constantly updated Louisiania House Runnoff results.

http://www.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=120404

I'll go out on a limb and say the GOP takes both seats tonight.

03 by a good bit, 07 in a squeeker.

Logically you're spot on methinks... but as these are the two Cajun districts...

The "conventional wisdom" is wrong more than it is right in Louisiania.

03 should go to the GOP, 07 is really hard to call.

Both 03 and 07 got really sunstantially redistricted in 2000 and in 2002 both had what were essentially uncontested House races so we really have no voting "baseline" in the new Boundries.

Making things more complicated is the fact that both "primaries" held on Nov 2nd were very very bitter with both the GOP and Dems having TWO strong contenders in each seat, so their is a lot of fratracidial "bad blood" within both parties.

Who knows in LA 07... flipping a coin has a 50/50 chance which is about as good as any other anaylsis you are likely to see.

[Democratic Hawk]

The Democrats need to capture the ideological centre because it is from that position they can win.

Also come 2008, more substance (Main Street) and less glitz (Hollywood)

With a centrist leadership, the Democrats can secure a liberal-moderate majority and put those darn right-wing ideologues out to pasture

America was founded on the principles of liberal democracy and the Democratic Party best encapsulates that ethos

Dave