Spanish General Election 2011

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There. A neutral term. If somewhat anachronistic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Aznar could not have lost re-election as he was not actually running for re-election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You could have asked Callaghan the same thing in 1979.

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Might be thinking that there's no point in stretching things out any further.

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July 2011 CIS poll/vote estimate:

PP 43.1%
PSOE 36%
IU 5.1%
CiU 3.1%
UPyD 3%
ERC 1.1%
PNV 1%

Hmm... PP lead less than what I presumed it to be.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the European Union, that is. Outside you have Norway and Iceland, along with some of the Balkans governments.

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Has Rubalcaba stolen one of my ties?

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Urgh. Less good.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

El Mundo also has a poll, but only for Andalusia.

But because Andalusia has about 9 Mio. of the 47 Mio. inhabitants, it carries some weight.

Here is how Andalusia voted in 2008:

51.9% PSOE
38.2% PP

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/busquedaAvanzadaAction.html?vuelta=1&codTipoEleccion=2&codPeriodo=200803&codEstado=99&codComunidad=1&codProvincia=0&codMunicipio=0&codDistrito=0&codSeccion=0&codMesa=0

Here is what the El Mundo poll projects for November:

48.9% PP
34.3% PSOE

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2011/07/28/andalucia/1311847293.html

That is really a very, very bad indicator ...

Oh dear God just let this election be over.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am rather referring to the PSOE. They may (or may not) learn not to try something as unpopular with their base again, though the price for that lesson will be spending time out of power.

Same sort of thing happened with the Gonzalez government though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am rather referring to the PSOE. They may (or may not) learn not to try something as unpopular with their base again, though the price for that lesson will be spending time out of power.

I don't think Social Democracy will learn this lesson in my lifetime.

Probably not. It didn't during the lifetime of my Grandad either (early 1920s to early 1990s).

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So, actually, PSC are clearly ahead there.

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Mariano Rajoy isn´t fit to run an egg and spoon race... Though this clearly has never stopped people before, least of all in Spain.

That's a nice variation on an old line. I may steal it.

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I don't like this election much.

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And, anyway, it isn't as though the Democratic Party actually exists as a national organisation - or ever has.

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Down by eighteen? Urgh. Shades of Dalton's famous diary entry from '31, even if it's nowhere near that bad.

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Mistakes likely.

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I've just realised that I've no alcohol in my flat, so will have to find some form of drowning-sorrows substitute. Biscuits, maybe? Think I've still some leaf tea left as well. Not ideal for these purposes, but will do, I think...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For reference, the PSOE's worst result since the return of democracy was in 1977 (29.3% and 118 seats), while the PP's best result was in 2000 (44.5% and 183 seats). Good set of results for the non-PSOE left, by the looks of things.

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When do the proper results start coming in?

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Are these actual results or exit poll suggestions?

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Ah, right then. So Catalunya not so bad all things considered, Andalucia a disaster (but that was expected, of course).

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Under 30% in what is (outside certain places) as pure a two-party system as can be found? That's... absolutely terrible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Under 30% in what is (outside certain places) as pure a two-party system as can be found? That's... absolutely terrible.

Not under 30% outside those certain places though.

Oh, sure. You know what I mean though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Under 30% in what is (outside certain places) as pure a two-party system as can be found? That's... absolutely terrible.

The United States' two-party system includes all very certain places.

You don't count.