If Bush could run for a 3rd term in 08 would he have faced a Primary?
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  If Bush could run for a 3rd term in 08 would he have faced a Primary?
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Author Topic: If Bush could run for a 3rd term in 08 would he have faced a Primary?  (Read 7546 times)
chibul
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« on: March 25, 2020, 06:57:22 PM »

I'm new to this board but I'm smart enough to know that presidents can now only run two terms.

If George W Bush could have ran for a third term, do you think another republican would have primaried him?

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Redban
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2020, 07:00:36 PM »

Yeah, his approval ratings were historically low. If there were ever a time when an incumbent could’ve lost a primary, it was 2008.
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here2view
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2020, 07:01:33 PM »

He absolutely would have been primaried, and he likely would lose.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2020, 07:04:14 PM »

Yes, people like Rudy, Mitt, & McCain definitely would've mounted primary challenges against him. Hell, if he even loses one primary too many, he probably drops out LBJ-style.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2020, 07:47:51 PM »

He would have faced a serious primary attempt, but he was still reasonably popular with the GOP base, so he would have won. He would have been landslided in the general though.
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chibul
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« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2020, 07:53:46 PM »

How many electoral votes would W have gotten if he survived the primary?
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dw93
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« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2020, 08:11:50 PM »

He would have faced a serious primary attempt, but he was still reasonably popular with the GOP base, so he would have won. He would have been landslided in the general though.

This is more likely IMHO. A Reagan 1976 or Kennedy 1980 primary would be mounted against Bush but Bush would still win in the end.
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VPH
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« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2020, 08:25:07 PM »

My guess is Ron Paul for sure runs and gives Dubya a scare in New Hampshire but gets routed in most other states. Kind of like Buchanan in 1992.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2020, 09:21:49 PM »

How many electoral votes would W have gotten if he survived the primary?

IMO, 138 to Obama's 400 (everything he actually won + GA, MO, MT, & the Dakotas), at most.
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Andrew Yang 2024
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« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2020, 03:15:46 PM »

Obama 419
Bush 119
Flips from OTL: SC, Nebraska 1st, ND, SD, GA, MT, MO, AZ (No McCain)
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chibul
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« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2020, 08:32:21 PM »

There's a part of me that thinks that the reason Bush's approval rating tanked is because since he was term limited, the republicans no longer needed him anymore. I think if the republicans still needed him to hold on to power they might have stuck by him.

I think Donald Trump has a 91% approval rating or whatever it is, is because they look at him as a transaction. They are willing to let him do whatever corrupt thing he wants to do and in exchange he's willing to gut the EPA and the CPB and nominate judges to the courts that will overturn Roe v. Wade. I think if the economy tanks during Trump's 8th year in office, his base may desert him because he can't run again and ensure another 4 years of tax cuts, gutting government agencies, and anti-abortion judges.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2020, 07:31:06 PM »

I don’t think Bush wanted a third term in 2008. He was eager to retire by that point.
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Redban
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« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2020, 08:35:34 PM »

There's a part of me that thinks that the reason Bush's approval rating tanked is because since he was term limited, the republicans no longer needed him anymore. I think if the republicans still needed him to hold on to power they might have stuck by him.

I think Donald Trump has a 91% approval rating or whatever it is, is because they look at him as a transaction. They are willing to let him do whatever corrupt thing he wants to do and in exchange he's willing to gut the EPA and the CPB and nominate judges to the courts that will overturn Roe v. Wade. I think if the economy tanks during Trump's 8th year in office, his base may desert him because he can't run again and ensure another 4 years of tax cuts, gutting government agencies, and anti-abortion judges.

Nah, Bush’s approval ratings dropped hard early in this 2nd term, during the summer of 2005 (Katrina). He never regained his footing afterwards. Iraq became increasing unpopular. And the economy started going down in 2007 (didn’t become an official recession until later, but the late-2007 economy already felt like one). I don’t think the Republicans would have stuck with him.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #13 on: July 18, 2021, 11:26:05 AM »

Yes, he would've, and I think that a strong primary challenger could easily win some states in the primaries. (Though I still think Bush would have probably eked out, given he had the incumbency advantage, which is a gigantic factor in a primary.)
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2021, 10:14:07 PM »

This scenario assumes that the 23rd Amendment never passed. Assuming that occurred, George W. Bush likely would not have been President in 2008 or maybe only in his first term.
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