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Author Topic: Why AR, WV, TN, etc. swung Republican  (Read 10394 times)
NHI
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« Reply #25 on: May 28, 2011, 06:28:04 pm »
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I see WV, TN, AR swinging back to the Democrats down the road.
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« Reply #26 on: May 31, 2011, 04:25:42 pm »
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I imagine McCain was more appealing than Bush to the Scotch-Irish populist vote.

Then why were so many of these Scotch-Irish populists still willing to vote for John Forbes Kerry in 04, but not willing to vote for Obama even while the rest of the country moved several points Democratic?

purple hearts > blue blood.

If you recall from the 04 campaign, many conservative voters--even registered Democrats--considered Forbes a rich playboy and doubted his claims of military heroism.

How does Obama come across as a "blue blood"? Huh I understand the "eastern liberal elite" argument, but that was every bit as applicable (and applied by Republicans) to Kerry.
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« Reply #27 on: May 31, 2011, 05:40:09 pm »
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Because Obama is black.


/thread.
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« Reply #28 on: May 31, 2011, 05:58:51 pm »
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Because Obama is black.


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Culture too.

If he had a more "American" sounding name, I'm sure that's worth more votes.
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« Reply #29 on: May 31, 2011, 06:08:08 pm »
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West Virginia remains mostly Democratic, except of presidential elections. Perhaps a Democratic candidate with some appeal to Appalachia would carry it easily.
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« Reply #30 on: May 31, 2011, 06:21:11 pm »
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West Virginia remains mostly Democratic, except of presidential elections. Perhaps a Democratic candidate with some appeal to Appalachia would carry it easily.

Well the ultimate test would be an election featuring Harold Ford.
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« Reply #31 on: May 31, 2011, 06:22:32 pm »
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I imagine McCain was more appealing than Bush to the Scotch-Irish populist vote.

Then why were so many of these Scotch-Irish populists still willing to vote for John Forbes Kerry in 04, but not willing to vote for Obama even while the rest of the country moved several points Democratic?

purple hearts > blue blood.

If you recall from the 04 campaign, many conservative voters--even registered Democrats--considered Forbes a rich playboy and doubted his claims of military heroism.

How does Obama come across as a "blue blood"? Huh I understand the "eastern liberal elite" argument, but that was every bit as applicable (and applied by Republicans) to Kerry.

'blue blood' was really meant for Bush. there was a cultural distaste for Kerry's 'eastern liberal elite' too but it was in part mitigated by his military service for many traditionally Democrat voters. really though I'm making more of a distinction between McCain and Bush for people who had been voting Democratic for a long time but admired McCain's military service and saw his style as Jacksonian / conservative Democrat.  I don't know that it was a huge factor, but I think there's something to it.
It's interesting to note that on a statewide level, of those states with a Republican swing, only AR had a larger swing in 2008 then in 2004.
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« Reply #32 on: May 31, 2011, 06:25:22 pm »
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West Virginia remains mostly Democratic, except of presidential elections. Perhaps a Democratic candidate with some appeal to Appalachia would carry it easily.

Well the ultimate test would be an election featuring Harold Ford.

If Harold Ford does any more carpetbagging a certain rug shop I know won't be forced to go out of business every two months.
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« Reply #33 on: June 01, 2011, 03:02:41 pm »
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West Virginia remains mostly Democratic, except of presidential elections. Perhaps a Democratic candidate with some appeal to Appalachia would carry it easily.

Well the ultimate test would be an election featuring Harold Ford.




The ultimate test would be an election featuring a man with a strange muslim-sounding name and tmth's face.
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« Reply #34 on: May 29, 2017, 02:50:03 pm »
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Six years later and it's brought up from the dead? :O

But seriously after the results from 2012 and 2016 it does seem that AR and TN were really just waiting on a long term R trend. I mean both states have sizable Black populations, but there looks like a lot of poor White Democrats became increasingly dissatisfied and it prevented a swing towards Obama that could've happened in 2008 or 2012 (to a much lesser extent however) and it accelerated in 2016.

West Virginia is the most clear.

Ironically, even Arkansas swung against Hillary. Tongue
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« Reply #35 on: May 29, 2017, 03:47:12 pm »
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Six years later and it's brought up from the dead? :O

But seriously after the results from 2012 and 2016 it does seem that AR and TN were really just waiting on a long term R trend. I mean both states have sizable Black populations, but there looks like a lot of poor White Democrats became increasingly dissatisfied and it prevented a swing towards Obama that could've happened in 2008 or 2012 (to a much lesser extent however) and it accelerated in 2016.

West Virginia is the most clear.

Ironically, even Arkansas swung against Hillary. Tongue


The current political system will climax when AR, TN, KY, WV, etc. have a similar percentage of Whites voting GOP as MS, AL, LA, etc.
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« Reply #36 on: May 29, 2017, 04:44:44 pm »
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Six years later and it's brought up from the dead? :O

But seriously after the results from 2012 and 2016 it does seem that AR and TN were really just waiting on a long term R trend. I mean both states have sizable Black populations, but there looks like a lot of poor White Democrats became increasingly dissatisfied and it prevented a swing towards Obama that could've happened in 2008 or 2012 (to a much lesser extent however) and it accelerated in 2016.

West Virginia is the most clear.

Ironically, even Arkansas swung against Hillary. Tongue


The current political system will climax when AR, TN, KY, WV, etc. have a similar percentage of Whites voting GOP as MS, AL, LA, etc.

#analysis
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« Reply #37 on: October 16, 2017, 06:48:41 pm »
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Eight years ago, I would have said, it was because of Obama being black.
Now I know it was because of Obama being from Chicago.
I guess Clinton was still perceived back then as a Southerner from a rural state; that's why she was liked in Appalachia or at least considered the lesser evil.
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« Reply #38 on: October 16, 2017, 07:18:15 pm »
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Six years later and it's brought up from the dead? :O

But seriously after the results from 2012 and 2016 it does seem that AR and TN were really just waiting on a long term R trend. I mean both states have sizable Black populations, but there looks like a lot of poor White Democrats became increasingly dissatisfied and it prevented a swing towards Obama that could've happened in 2008 or 2012 (to a much lesser extent however) and it accelerated in 2016.

West Virginia is the most clear.

Ironically, even Arkansas swung against Hillary. Tongue


The current political system will climax when AR, TN, KY, WV, etc. have a similar percentage of Whites voting GOP as MS, AL, LA, etc.
If that happened it would be back to the Solid South (8090% for Republicans) just flipped this time.
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« Reply #39 on: October 18, 2017, 04:20:15 am »
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Six years later and it's brought up from the dead? :O

But seriously after the results from 2012 and 2016 it does seem that AR and TN were really just waiting on a long term R trend. I mean both states have sizable Black populations, but there looks like a lot of poor White Democrats became increasingly dissatisfied and it prevented a swing towards Obama that could've happened in 2008 or 2012 (to a much lesser extent however) and it accelerated in 2016.

West Virginia is the most clear.

Ironically, even Arkansas swung against Hillary. Tongue


Very good question, and your necro-post actually sheds light and , while also exposing the extremely weak posts on Atlas, as well as the Main Stream medias interpretations of both the '08 Dem Primary, as well as the '08 GE.

Reality is that this is a part of the country where the tradition of Military Service runs deep in the family blood...

As others have noted, it's also a place where Whites vote much more Democratic than in the rest of the former states of the White Supremacist South.

Considering how the older racist folks that grew up in an era where Jim Crow was the law of the land are now dropping off like flies.... I'm still not convinced that the whole argument about "Racist White voters that so many on Atlas were flogging back at the time of the OP makes any sense...

My thought is rather that Obama running as an "Anti War" Democratic didn't play well in these States, considering that they had been shifting heavily Republican since '00, and especially after 9-11.

After all Tennessee almost elected their first Black Senator since Reconstruction not that many years ago, WV obviously still has a Democratic Senator, and after all split from the State of Virginia because of the whole slavery/succession gig during the Civil War....

What do all of these States have in common?

A significant population of aging military vets/families, that have been gradually been shifting "Right" on Social Policy, at the same time that the Democrats have been shifting "Right" on Economic Policy....





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