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Author Topic: NBC Chuck Todd/Daily Rundown Tossup Map  (Read 3957 times)
Likely Voter
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« on: April 04, 2011, 02:44:47 pm »

EDITED To FLIP IN
Today on the Daily Rundown Chuck Todd offered his map of the Tossup states for 2012 (as of now)



That gives
Obama: 232
GOP: 191
Tossup: 115

He specifically noted that MO and PA are not on the map because they are "ever so slightly leaning" R and D respectively. Also noted that Obama's people want to put GA and AZ on the map, but doubted that would happen

EDIT: The map they put up on the screen only showed the tossups, so I used the 2008 results for the rest. He made no mention of IN, but I think commenters are right and he must be assuming IN flipped back to lead  R
« Last Edit: April 04, 2011, 03:57:05 pm by Likely Voter »Logged
King
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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2011, 02:46:27 pm »

Interesting decision on Indiana.

Did he call the Nebraska CD lean Dem or did you just not change it on the map?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2011, 03:08:44 pm »

Pennsylvania is Lean D but Nevada and New Mexico Toss-Up?
You're out of shape Chuck.
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« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2011, 03:33:29 pm »

Indiana lean-dem but Wisconsin a toss-up?  What?
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« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2011, 03:41:02 pm »

Based on what?  Barring a reliable pollster showing otherwise (in 2012 or current approval polls)  we should assume the toss-ups are the states that were closest in 2008: IN, NC, MO, OH, FL, GA, VA.   And even the toss-ups you can assign a slight edge to the party that won it in 08 in the absence of conflicting data.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2011, 03:46:14 pm »

I have changed the map. The map shown on the show actually only highlighted the 10 tossups. They made no mention of IN, so when i used the tool it defaulted to 2008. But I think everyone is right and the assumption must be that it is actually lean R not lean D.
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« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2011, 03:46:38 pm »

Indiana is likely GOP, not lean dem Wink

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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2011, 01:28:42 am »

Indiana is likely GOP, not lean dem Wink



All this talk of Indiana likely GOP...let's not get ahead of ourselves...we have seen no polling in Indiana yet. I would think it would be comparable to North Carolina
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« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2011, 09:46:10 am »

Indiana is likely GOP, not lean dem Wink



All this talk of Indiana likely GOP...let's not get ahead of ourselves...we have seen no polling in Indiana yet. I would think it would be comparable to North Carolina

I'm not saying Indiana should be likely GOP.. chuck todd is saying that.
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« Reply #9 on: April 05, 2011, 11:42:16 am »

I'm laughing my ass off at assumptions that Indiana will be a toss-up or lean to the Dems in 2012. I can envision the GOP candidate taking Indiana by 10+% even if they lose the rest of the Midwest.
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« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2011, 12:11:14 pm »

North Carolina should be placed in the Republican column, and I'd place Colorado as leaning Dem.
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« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2011, 12:13:40 pm »

Nevada, New Mexico, and Wisconsin aren't really swing states. Dems in Wisconsin are still turned off from the GOP because of Walker.
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« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2011, 12:14:07 pm »

North Carolina should be placed in the Republican column, and I'd place Colorado as leaning Dem.
Not really, as this is a map over a year before the election, there is a lot of uncertainty.  My only complaint is having New Mexico as a tossup.  If its a tossup, so should Pennsylvania.  
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« Reply #13 on: April 05, 2011, 02:03:20 pm »



More likely map.
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« Reply #14 on: April 05, 2011, 03:06:35 pm »

Based on what?  Barring a reliable pollster showing otherwise (in 2012 or current approval polls)  we should assume the toss-ups are the states that were closest in 2008: IN, NC, MO, OH, FL, GA, VA.   And even the toss-ups you can assign a slight edge to the party that won it in 08 in the absence of conflicting data.

The new Georgia poll confirms what I'm saying.  Huckabee is barely beating Obama.  Don't go by preconceived notions or results from 10 years ago or intuition or what your goatee tells you.

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« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2011, 04:04:04 pm »

Chuck Todd needs to get with the times. NM and NV should be red if PA is.
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« Reply #16 on: April 05, 2011, 04:35:27 pm »

Georgia: strong-R
Missouri: strong to lean-R
Indiana: lean-R
Nevada: lean-D, but murky, due to foreclosure rate, job loss, ect.
New Mexico: lean to strong-D

Pennsylvania: lean slightly-D, but in a close race, the Philly burbs decide it.  The redistricters ought to be busy with PA.  Still, I tend to buy Joe Scarborough's description of PA in presidential elections as "Republican fool's gold."

Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina: tossups
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« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2011, 12:36:11 am »

Largely correct, but NM is not a toss-up anymore.

Maybe they only did it, because Bush won it 1 time.
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« Reply #18 on: April 07, 2011, 05:33:51 am »

Interesting decision on Indiana.

Did he call the Nebraska CD lean Dem or did you just not change it on the map?

It'd be kind of silly for anyone to make that call before Nebraska even finishes redistricting, IMO.

Based on what?  Barring a reliable pollster showing otherwise (in 2012 or current approval polls)  we should assume the toss-ups are the states that were closest in 2008: IN, NC, MO, OH, FL, GA, VA.   And even the toss-ups you can assign a slight edge to the party that won it in 08 in the absence of conflicting data.

The new Georgia poll confirms what I'm saying.  Huckabee is barely beating Obama.  Don't go by preconceived notions or results from 10 years ago or intuition or what your goatee tells you.


Be wary, though, most of those undecideds will end up voting GOP.

Largely correct, but NM is not a toss-up anymore.

Maybe they only did it, because Bush won it 1 time.

I've heard talk of NM Gov. Martinez as a possible GOP veep pick; that might also be a factor.
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« Reply #19 on: April 07, 2011, 06:51:13 pm »

Martinez buzz cannot be putting NM into tossup. I suspect it is just NBC thinking traditionally or maybe their polling has some data we havent seen.
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« Reply #20 on: April 07, 2011, 08:33:34 pm »

Even more likely.




Georgia will likely depend upon the military situation. The state has several large military bases, and because the Republican nominee will not be a big military hero, all will depend on how well the President does for soldiers in a state that was fairly close in 2008.

Arizona? Its favorite son will not be running for President in 2012.

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« Reply #21 on: April 07, 2011, 10:17:19 pm »

I am thinking of three optional maps for battlegrounds in Election 2012.…


Republican Pickup…




Democratic Hold (Electoral Gain)…




Democratic Landslide…
« Last Edit: April 07, 2011, 10:22:55 pm by DS0816 »Logged
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