EDITED To FLIP INToday on the Daily Rundown Chuck Todd offered his map of the Tossup states for 2012 (as of now)
That gives
Obama: 232
GOP: 191
Tossup: 115
He specifically noted that MO and PA are not on the map because they are "ever so slightly leaning" R and D respectively. Also noted that Obama's people want to put GA and AZ on the map, but doubted that would happen
EDIT: The map they put up on the screen only showed the tossups, so I used the 2008 results for the rest. He made no mention of IN, but I think commenters are right and he must be assuming IN flipped back to lead R