VA-Roanoke College: Allen (R) leads Kaine (D) by 13

[Tender Branson]

In a very early look at the possible battle for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Jim Webb, registered voters in the Commonwealth preferred former Gov. and U.S. Sen. George Allen, a Republican, over former Gov. Tim Kaine, a Democrat, by 45 percent to 32 percent with 23 percent undecided. [Please note that the margin of error for this question was + 5.2 percent because it was asked only of the 360 registered voters in the sample.]

Among the battleground groups, Kaine led among political moderates (41%-34%), while Allen led among Independent voters (40%-35%). Not surprisingly, Allen led among Republicans (78%-4%) and conservatives (68%-10%) while Kaine led among Democrats (79%-12%) and liberals (83%-10%). Allen’s lead could be attributed to the large number of conservatives in Virginia, a finding that closely matches the December, 2010 Roanoke College Poll.

http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/RC_Poll_Spring_2011.htm

Update: Washington Post Polling Director Jon Cohen warns to be cautious of this poll. "Results were adjusted only for gender, and the resulting sample is not representative of Virginia's racial composition, its age structure or regional population densities. Each of these factors is related to partisan preferences."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/04/07/allen_opens_early_lead_over_kaine.html

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I am more than a little skeptical.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Joke poll.
The fact that they asked the horserace question last, after 32(!!!) issue questions about "redistribution of wealth" and the Flat Tax is all you need to know.

[Miles]

I am more than a little skeptical.

[HST1948]

Is VA-Roanoke College a reliable pollster?

I have expected this race to be tight from the beginning, with Kaine possibly being a very very slim favorite depending on the political enviornment, but I never expected either candidate to have a double digit lead at any point in the campaign (obviously barring any unusual circumstances).  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kaine, it looks like was overrated. But there should be another poll to confirm this.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Junk uni poll.

[Landslide Lyndon]

From Political Wire's comments section:

The poll is extremely dubious on countless levels.

Start off with the sample size of 360 - pathetic for a statewide poll, producing a huge MOE.

Then consider that the poll asked an overwhelming 32 separate issue questions before they asked the Senate preference question - a sure-fire way not simply to throw the results off by influencing responses, but also to weed out lots of potential participants who simply don't have the patience to sit through a survey that long. As an issue poll design, this sort of thing is frowned upon if you want to get accurate results on the big candidate choice question that is being asked at the end of such a long string of potentially leading ideological questions.

But more importantly, the racial/ethnic demographics are completely off - 85% white, 10% African-American, 5% "other". In 2008, the turnout was 70% white, 20% African-American, 5% Latino, 3% Asian, 2% other.

Same on the age - 27% are over 65, compared to 11% of the electorate in 2008, and 62% are over 50, compared to 37% in 2008.

The also appears to have under-sampled Northern Virginia (21% in this poll, 26% in 2008), and over-sampled SW VA/Shenandoah Valley (23% in this poll, 17% in 2008).

Given all these issues, anyone who looks at it as a realistic snapshot of that state of the 2012 Virginia Senate race is relying on a very flawed piece of research.

[Tender Branson]

Is VA-Roanoke College a reliable pollster?

More or less.

In 2010 they said Hurt 46% Perriello 40% - the end result was 51-47 Hurt.

In 2009 they said McDonnell by 53-36 - he won by 59-41.

In 2008 they said Obama by 48-39 and Warner by 57-22 - the end result was Obama by 53-46 and Warner by 65-34.

In 2006 they said Allen wins by 45-42, but finally Webb won by 0.4%

[HST1948]

Is VA-Roanoke College a reliable pollster?

More or less.

In 2010 they said Hurt 46% Perriello 40% - the end result was 51-47 Hurt.

In 2009 they said McDonnell by 53-36 - he won by 59-41.

In 2008 they said Obama by 48-39 and Warner by 57-22 - the end result was Obama by 53-46 and Warner by 65-34.

In 2006 they said Allen wins by 45-42, but finally Webb won by 0.4%

Thank you!

[Tender Branson]

Is VA-Roanoke College a reliable pollster?

More or less.

In 2010 they said Hurt 46% Perriello 40% - the end result was 51-47 Hurt.

In 2009 they said McDonnell by 53-36 - he won by 59-41.

In 2008 they said Obama by 48-39 and Warner by 57-22 - the end result was Obama by 53-46 and Warner by 65-34.

In 2006 they said Allen wins by 45-42, but finally Webb won by 0.4%

Thank you!

This doesn't mean though that this poll here is not flawed.

This poll only has 10% Blacks, in 2008 it was 20% Blacks.

In 2012, VA's Exit Poll will probably be about 65% White, 20% Black, 7% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 3% Others.

This poll here shows 85% Whites (!!!).

Even their 2008 pre-election poll showed 18% Blacks.

[Napoleon]

Junk uni poll.

Yes but good to see something show that Kaine isn't some electable God.

[Umengus]

the poll is a joke: Obama JA is not at 34 % in VA...