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Author Topic: PC Party, 1993 - Disaster Averted (Canada)  (Read 10219 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« on: April 12, 2011, 04:55:14 am »
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Coming soon.
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2011, 09:17:11 pm »
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Stats:
Standings at Dissolution.
PC - 151
Lib - 79
NDP - 43
BQ - 8
Ref - 1
IND - 3

Results
LIB - 150 - 37.36% - 5,106,242 votes
PC - 53 - 29.01% - 3,964,991
BQ - 51 - 10.66% - 1,456,974
Ref - 27 - 12.30% - 1,681,124
NDP - 12 - 6.90% - 943,069
IND - 2 - 3.77% - 341,849

Vote, Change (since last election)
Lib = +5.44% = +901,170 votes
PC = -14.01% = -1,702,552
NDP = -13.48% = -1,742,194
Ref = +10.21% = +1,405,357
BQ = +10.66% = +1,456,974
OTH = +1.18% = +173,422

Seats, Change, last election
Lib +67
PC -116
NDP -31
Ref +27
BQ +51
IND +2

Seats, Change, Dissolution
Lib +71
PC -98
NDP -31
Ref +26
BQ +43
IND -1

=====
END OF STATS

STORY BEGINS IN NEXT POST





Good evening, Lloyd Robertson. I'm  it is September 28th 1993, the day after the Federal Election, and what an election it was. The Conservatives have been turfed from government, and the Liberals have won a Majority government. The Liberals, Tories, and NDP will be joined by two new parties, the Bloc Quebecois, and the Western based Reform Party. How will such a fractured Parliament function? We'll find out tonight on CTV National News.



We begin with our top story the results of the 1993 Federal Election. With the final seats settling into place the results have become clear. The Liberals will form a Majority government with 150 seats. Staring at them from across the isle in the House of Commons will be four opposition parties. The PC Party will form the Official Opposition with 53 seats. They will be crowded by 92 other opposition members, 51 from the Separatist Bloc Quebecois, 27 from the Western based Reform Party, 12 from the NDP, and 2 Independents, both former Conservatives. Earlier in the day it looked as though the Bloc Quebecois may have lead the opposition, but the end of counting has put that to rest. There are those in the Reform Party, however, calling for Kim Campbell to step aside as Opposition Leader, a job she does not yet have, and for the Opposition as a whole to elect a leader to represent it. Reform points out that other than the unique 1921 election, never before as the Official Opposition held less than half of all opposition seats.

The PC Party suffered one of the worst setbacks ever seen in modern politics. Never before has a government lost so many seats. The NDP also suffered serious problems being reduced to the bare minimum 12 seats they need for official party status in the House of Commons. The Bloc Quebecois have managed to take 51 of Quebec's 75 seats, capturing one and a half million votes in the process. Reform, which managed one point seven million, will have only 27 MP's, 1 from Saskatchewan, and 26 from Alberta and BC.

We have an at-issue panel here to discuss the results. Representatives of all five parties are here to talk about what this means for Parliament, Politics, and Canada.


Lets go to our panel. From the PC Party we have Ken Randall, from the Liberals, Louis LeClerc, from the NDP, Sandy Kirkpatrick, from the Bloc, Pascal Parizeau, and from Reform, Edwin Forsyth. Letís start with Louis LeClerc. "Louis, your party forms the new government, what are your plans." "We will take our policy, as outlined in the red book, and begin to implement it." "With such a narrow majority, under 40% of the vote, do you have a mandate to do so?" "Of course, no other party has even come close to us, the next largest party is 100 seats behind us, Iíd say thatís a pretty clear mandate." "Lets not be grand here, we might have taken a bit of a hit in the PC Party, but we had three quarters of the vote that you did." "Lets not forget that we in Reform have taken more seats than the NDP, and even the Bloc managed to take a significant amount of seats." "We thought we were the official opposition until 2pm this afternoon, the Bloc is only 2 seats behind the PC Party." "You are not even a Canadian party, and yet you want to be the Canadian opposition?" "Lets give Sandy a chance to jump in for the NDP." "The Liberals will need to pick a speaker, once that is done they will have a 2 seat Majority. It is only smart for them to at least try to work with other parties." "We are not going to be beholden to a party that only scraped the bottom of party status, and has had itís worst election in history." "The NDP did lose quite a few seats." "You lost 116 seats, that is a record, far more than the Liberals loss of 95 seats in 1984" "Hold on, hold on, we only held 151 seats at dissolution" "That is still 98 seats, still a record" "Record or not, we are still the Official Opposition." "By 2 seats. Otherwise we would be it." "We gained far more votes than you, but because we are a national party, and we are a national party despite what the media would have people think, we were not able to win as many seats. " "You ran in 88. You have had a Senator, and an MP for 5 years. The Bloc was a new party, untested, and we beat you fare and square at the ballot box." "And these two want the power to pick the leader of the official opposition, they would only bring chaos." "We have a Majority, all of this chaos talk is pointless" "Your majority is rather thin" "You majority is no more" "Alright guys, lets stay on the issue, I still want to hear more from the NDP; How do you explain your party's loss?" "There were many issues, I think that our governments in Ontario and BC likely hurt us more than we thought." "You have been shut out of Ontario." "Indeed, and we hope to do better next time." "And that will have to be all, we are out of time. Up next, we talk about the recent news out ofÖ"
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2011, 09:24:00 pm »
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We now talk to Mike Duffy, who has the inside track on politics.

Mike, we heard that the PC Party was heading for a disaster, despite leading in the polls. In the last week of this election we saw the party begin to burst at the seams, with a series of tactical mistakes. Nobody wanted to believe the PC Party was heading for doom, but these election results show that the party was very close to a disaster. How did they manage to avert it?

Well Lloyd, the party made a choice to run quite a different campaign than they were originally planning. I have sources that say that Campbell wanted to wait an additional two weeks before calling the election, and then wanted it to last an additional two weeks. That would have put us into a late October election. In addition, the party decided to run a tightly centralized campaign, which sparked the resignation of Alan Gregg who felt stifled. We started to see an exponential drop in support for the Tories, to such a degree that if the election had lasted 7 weeks, we might see a PC Party behind Reform, or even the NDP. Some PC insiders I've spoken to say that they think the party might have even lost official status if they had followed their original plan.

So what you are saying is this is a case of Disaster Averted, a smart move that changed history even before that history was made.

Yes, indeed. If not for that smart move, we might be talking about how Reform is the new party of the right in Canada...
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« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2011, 08:52:52 pm »
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Prime Minister Jean Chretien (pictured) celebrates New Years 1994 in Ottawa.



Yes, the timelines are now in sync.
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« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2011, 07:19:25 am »
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Events:
Throughout 1994 and mid 1995 the Liberal government began a series of cuts designed to eventually balance the budget. The Liberals took a far more sharp course than originally planned, hoping to eliminate the deficit within a few years.

Provincial:
Despite the survival of the federal PC Party, the impact on provincial politics throughout 1994 and to mid 1995 was minimal.

Politics:
The Liberals, having formed a Majority, were stable and happy.
The Bloc continued to prepare for the Quebec Referendum.
Reform considered the election a success, despite only having two dozen MPs.
The NDP was negatively effected by the election. A leadership election was called for late 1995.
Kim Campbell tried to stay on as leader, but was forced into a Leadership race in April of 1995 in Hull, Quebec.

Campbell decided to run. Jean Charest ran as well. Other contenders decided to sit out, making this a one-round-only result. The end result was clear.

Charest - 2349
Campbell - 1172

Campbell decided to do as Clark did, and remain in caucus.

As the referendum came closer, Charest began to play a huge role. Being more popular in Quebec than Chretien or Johnson, Charest became the face of the NO campaign.

Meanwhile, in the NDP leadership race...

EDIT-
Note that manning is the MP for Yellowhead.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2011, 05:18:24 am by TheNewTeddy »Logged

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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2011, 06:40:57 am »
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Not one person was interested in this? Sad
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2011, 07:53:01 am »
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I'm reading it.
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Professor Nathan. A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights. Can you really trust him?

Yeah that's right, I said Siam. Why don't you go tell Pedro Martinez
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2011, 01:01:20 pm »
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I'll see if I can't resurrect this.
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« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2011, 08:16:12 am »
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I'm pretty sure I had something interesting in store for whomever becomes NDP leader, but since I can't remember it, nor can I figure out what I was aiming for, I will have to make McDonough leader as normal.
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« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2011, 08:43:00 am »
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However I DO recall what I had in mind for the...

1995 Quebec Referendum


With Charest leading the charge for the NO side, the campaign was organized, and well run. The large "Unity Rally" was estimated by an English-language radio station to have had 200,000 participants, and by a French-language radio station to have 45,000. CBC pegged the number at 90,000.

By the end of the night the results were clear

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
NON - 58.7% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - OUI - 41.3%

Charest's role clearly had a major effect, taking away the lead in the polls that Bouchard had built up. Estimates were that Francophones split half-half, and at his address at the loss of the Referendum Parizeau blamed his loss on "Money".  

Parizeau would resign as Premier, and Bouchard would take over, with Duceppe becoming the new leader of the Bloc by the time of the 1997 election.
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« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2011, 01:10:50 pm »
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November of 1995 saw a poll putting the PC party ahead for the first time since Campbell. The Tories would bounce back and forth with the Liberals for the next two years. During most of 1997, the Tories head a poll lead, and Chretien, who we would later find out had planned a June election, would hold off until October of 1997 to call the vote.

The first poll at the opening of the election was as follows:
38% L
33% P
10% N
10% R
8% B

The Liberals polled very poorly in Atlantic Canada, due to their cuts to EI, but some say the PC Party made a tactical error by campaigning on a right-wing platform that would not restore the cut funding. Rather, the PC Party focused it's attention on Quebec, against the Bloc, Ontario, against the Liberals, and out West, against Reform. The Bloc, having been demoralized by the last referendum, ran on a largely left-wing platform, with few mentions of sovereignty. The NDP meanwhile ran the first half of the campaign nationwide, but when they began polling in first place in Nova Scotia, and polling very well in the other Atlantic provinces, most of McDonough's time was spent out east, something that ended up hurting the party elsewhere.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2011, 05:08:16 pm by Parson Brown (TEDDY) »Logged

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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2011, 05:14:51 pm »
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1997

N 34.4% -- P 29.4% -- L 28.6% -- R 6.5% -- I 1.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-

L 34.1% -- P 31.4% -- B 29.6% -- N 2.8% -- R 1.4% -- I 0.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-

P 41.7% -- L 36.4% -- N 9.1% -- R 9.0% -- I 3.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-

P 28.0% -- R 27.1% -- L 24.0% -- N 19.3% - I 1.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-

P 43.9% -- R 35.2% -- L 14.8% -- N 3.8% -- I 2.3%
-
-
-
-
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-

R 34.2% -- P 26.0% -- L 20.8% -- N 15.5% -- I 3.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-

L 35.3% -- N 23.5% -- P 21.7% -- R 10.6% -- 8.9%
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #12 on: December 22, 2011, 05:20:07 pm »
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RESULTS:

PC Party -- 4,546,984 -- Jean Charest -- 35.01% -- 129 seats (minority government)
Liberals -- 3,972,151 -- Jean Chretien -- 30.59% -- 87 seats
Reform -- 1,688,914 -- Preston Manning -- 13.01% -- 31 seats
N.D.P. -- 1,384,719 -- Alexa McDonough -- 10.66% -- 28 seats
Bloc Q. -- 1,083,329 -- Gilles Duceppe -- 8.34% -- 25 seats
Indep. -- 309,816 -- xxxxx xxxxxxxx -- 2.39% -- 1 seat
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #13 on: December 22, 2011, 07:31:26 pm »
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It was a few short months after becoming Prime Minister that Charest announced a shocking decision - he was stepping down, to run for leader of the Quebec Liberals.

Charest had been very popular in the province, and was seen as the saviour of Canada. Outside the province, however, there was little understanding for this decision. Lewis MacKenzie took over as Prime Minister while the leadership election for PC leader was underway. A number of Candidates threw their hat into the ring. Fortier, Pallister, Orchard, and Segal were all considered to be "second rate". The two major candidates, were current and long-time PC MP Joe Clark, former Prime Minister, and former Reform Party MP, Stephen Harper. Each representing "half" the party.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #14 on: December 22, 2011, 07:58:30 pm »
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FIRST BALLOT

Harper - 1561
Clark - 1459
Orchard - 337
Segal - 325
Pallister - 229
Fortier - 77

Fortier is dropped and endorses Clark. Segal withdraws and also endorses Clark. Pallister withdraws and endorses Harper.

Clark - 1848
Harper - 1805
Orchard - 323

Orchard is dropped and grudgingly endorses Clark, saying that a Harper victory would destroy the party.

Clark - 2013
Harper - 1835

Clark offered a hand to Harper after the election, offering to make him Deputy. Clark recognized that Harper represents the right-wing of the party and that he needs to reach out. Harper accepts and becomes Deputy Prime Minister. Harper runs for and wins a seat in Toronto.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2011, 08:13:46 pm »
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Prime Minister Joe Clark (pictured) celebrates New Years 1999 in Ottawa.


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« Reply #16 on: December 22, 2011, 08:17:33 pm »
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March 1999, Ralph Goodale defects to Government, gets appointed to Cabinet

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« Reply #17 on: December 22, 2011, 08:25:43 pm »
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Meanwhile In Quebec...

Former Prime Minister Jean Charest's surprise victory in the 1998 election remained stable. Charest's razor thin majority, a total of 63 seats, remained stable, despite a 61 seat PQ opposition, and Mario Dumont.
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« Reply #18 on: December 23, 2011, 04:19:53 am »
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The Clark minority was able to survive for some time working with parties on an issue-by-issue basis. The Liberals supported Clark on a few issues, the NDP on others, the Bloc on some, and even Reform from time to time.

In a Press Conference, Harper referred to Reform as "The NDP of the right" and played down PC weakness in rural BC and Saskatchewan, saying that the Liberals had faced similar challenges from the NDP, and yet have still managed to form majorities, but that unlike the Liberals, the PC Party still has a presence in Alberta.

Reform meanwhile faced a fateful convention, where Preston Manning decided to retire. Reform had a built-in "death" clause that the party should dissolve if it can not form government by the year 2000. Two forces opposed one another in the convention. One, a national and conservative movement, another, more populist and western oriented. The end result was Reform voting to continue as a party, but to only run Candidates in the Western provinces. Dick Harris won the leadership race and replaced Preston Manning as leader.

The Liberals meanwhile chose a new leader. While Paul Martin was the favourite, the backlash was strong. The single term Liberal majority governed from a very right-wing prospective, and many Liberals felt that it was time to swing back to the left. Shelia Copps quickly became that candidate, and the two went head to head.

COPPS - 1945
MARTIN - 1433

Copps won an astounding victory and became Opposition leader, promising to bring down the Tories. By the fall of 2000, the government fell, and another election was held.


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« Reply #19 on: December 23, 2011, 10:55:31 am »
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Haha. No way Tequila Sheila beats Martin, but Ok...
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #20 on: December 23, 2011, 11:35:29 am »
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Remember that not only did the Liberals take a more right-wing course than our real life Liberals did, but, they lost after the first term, and the NDP is still weak. I don't think it's unreasonable that the party's left would be very angry.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #21 on: December 23, 2011, 03:06:53 pm »
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I managed to loose the provincial vote figures... but:
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« Reply #22 on: December 23, 2011, 03:08:58 pm »
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« Reply #23 on: December 27, 2011, 08:29:31 pm »
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2001

Duceppe, given the scale of his loss, resigned. He would be replaced with a dude who would himself be replaced prior to the next election.

Following the 9/11 attacks, Clark agreed to send troops to Afghanistan.

The Clark government also used the good economy and revenue stream to make cuts to taxes, and increase social services.
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« Reply #24 on: December 27, 2011, 08:43:31 pm »
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Upon becoming Prime Minister, Clark faced a Senate with 51 Liberals, 50 Progressive Conservatives, and 3 Independents.


By the end of 2001, only 22 Liberal Senators remained, VS 69 Tories, 5 Independents, and 9 Vacancies. Clark decided to embark on a plan for Senate Reform...
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