What if past elections were held today?
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  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  What if past elections were held today?
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Author Topic: What if past elections were held today?  (Read 1643 times)
tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« on: May 21, 2011, 01:36:20 AM »

As it says in the title.  They hold the same positions, and people now know about their presidencies and personal lives (so Hoover might attack Roosevelt for Japanese internment and opposing anti-lynching laws, for example).

2008: McCain does better, close but lean-Obama.
2004: Kerry landslide
2000: Gore landslide
1996: Similar to IRL, Clinton does better in the NE and west and Dole does worse in the South.  Perot might do slightly better.
1992: Clinton wins by a larger margin, Perot does better, winning Maine.
1988: Much closer, but Bush still wins
1980/1984: 50-state Reagan landslide
1976: 50-state Ford landslide
1972: Close, McGovern wins
1968: HHH landslide, Wallace near wiped out
1964: 50-state LBJ landslide (SoCons would go for LBJ)
1960: Kennedy landslide
1952/1956: Eisenhower landslide, smaller than IRL simply due to increased polarization
1948: Truman landslide
1940/1944: FDR wins by larger margins
1936: FDR landslide, Landon does slightly better
1932: 50-state FDR landslide
1928: Smith landslide
1924: Davis nearly wiped out, Coolidge narrowly defeats LaFollette
1920: Cox landslide
1916: Hughes landslide
1912: Can the initial Roosevelt lead be whittled down due to revelation of his more "interesting" views?  Wilson will be wiped out, Debs may replace Roosevelt as the left candidate if Roosevelt is sunk.
1908: Taft landslide
1904: lean Roosevelt win
1896/1900: Close between McKinley and Debs
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2011, 04:34:18 AM »

Is it with the conditions of the time (ie Great Depression for 1932, slavery issue for 1860, etc) or in the current context ?
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Dancing with Myself
tb75
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2011, 09:21:28 AM »

As it says in the title.  They hold the same positions, and people now know about their presidencies and personal lives (so Hoover might attack Roosevelt for Japanese internment and opposing anti-lynching laws, for example).

2008: McCain does better, close but lean-Obama.
2004: Kerry landslide
2000: Gore landslide
1996: Similar to IRL, Clinton does better in the NE and west and Dole does worse in the South.  Perot might do slightly better.
1992: Clinton wins by a larger margin, Perot does better, winning Maine.
1988: Much closer, but Bush still wins
1980/1984: 50-state Reagan landslide
1976: 50-state Ford landslide
1972: Close, McGovern wins
1968: HHH landslide, Wallace near wiped out
1964: 50-state LBJ landslide (SoCons would go for LBJ)
1960: Kennedy landslide
1952/1956: Eisenhower landslide, smaller than IRL simply due to increased polarization
1948: Truman landslide
1940/1944: FDR wins by larger margins
1936: FDR landslide, Landon does slightly better
1932: 50-state FDR landslide
1928: Smith landslide
1924: Davis nearly wiped out, Coolidge narrowly defeats LaFollette
1920: Cox landslide
1916: Hughes landslide
1912: Can the initial Roosevelt lead be whittled down due to revelation of his more "interesting" views?  Wilson will be wiped out, Debs may replace Roosevelt as the left candidate if Roosevelt is sunk.
1908: Taft landslide
1904: lean Roosevelt win
1896/1900: Close between McKinley and Debs

Sorry but your list is wrong. Here is what will happen in my view:

2008- Mccain wins by winning Ohio
2004- Bush wins by a bigger margin
2000- Bush wins by a landslide
1996- Clinton wins Virginia and North Carolina, Perot makes it to 14%
1992- Clinton wins by same marrgin, Perot wins Maine, Montana, and Wyoming
1988- Bush wins my same margin or better, Dukakis is still bland
1984- 50 State Landlide
1980- Same as in RL
1976- Ford wins but barely
1972- Nixon wins, Mcgovern win a few more states: Rhode Island, Minnesota, and Oregon
1968- Nixon wins, Wallace wins most of the south
1964-  Johnson Wins, Goldwater wins most of the south
1960-  Kennedy still wins but barely
1952/1956- Ike wins in a landslide
1948- Truman wins by a bigger margin
1944- FDR wins better over Dewey thank Willkie
1940- Willkie does better, gives FDR a race
1936- 48 state landslide, Landon wins Maine and Kansas
1932- FDR wins Pennsylvania and Hoover gets all his other states
1928- Hoover wins but barely
1924- Coolidge does better, La Follete wins several Mid west states
1920- Harding would still win, but by a small margin
1916- Hughes would win
1912- Roosevelt would win, followed by Taft and Debs. Wilson would pull nothing to being a racist and his political views
1908- Taft by a big margin
1904- Roosevelt by a huge margin
1900- McKinley easily wins
1896- Bryan almost wins, but McKinley pulls out a win
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2011, 02:45:53 PM »

Is it with the conditions of the time (ie Great Depression for 1932, slavery issue for 1860, etc) or in the current context ?

It's the current context, but they still have the exact same views.  So Breckinridge might argue for the reinstitution of slavery, for instance...
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WillK
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2011, 03:27:34 PM »

2008 - Probably a little better for McCain but still an Obama win. 
2004 - Kerry wins
2000 - Gore in a landslide
1996 - Similar to real result
1992 - Many Perot voters would switch to Bush or Clinton but result probably the same as real result 1988 - Bush wins my same margin or better, Dukakis is still bland
1984 - Mondale does a lot better but still a Reagan win
1980 - Much closer, but Reagan probably still wins.
1976 - Ford wins but barely
1972 - Much closer by Nixon probably still wins
1968 - Humprheys wins
1964 - Much the same as actual
1960 - Probably bigger Kennedy win
1952/1956 - Ike wins landslides
1948 - Dewey actually wins it.
1932 - 1944 - FDR still wins, though maybe not as big
1928 - incredibly close election but Hoover probably still wins
1924 - La Follete does better but probably still a Coolidge win
1920 - Maybe not that different than real life
1916 - Hughes
1912 - Roosevelt
1908 - Maybe not that different than real life
1904 - Maybe not that different than real life
1900 - Maybe not that different than real life
1896 - Maybe not that different than real life, though maybe McKinley does better
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2011, 04:47:25 PM »
« Edited: May 22, 2011, 07:32:56 AM by Director Avery Bullock »

2008

Knowing that Obama will kill bin Laden, pass RomneyCare and that the economy will continue to collapse in 2009, only to emerge in a state of stasis by the end of 2010. Further, the Tea Party will be popular only to lengthen the slow down with a wave of job-killing, credit-freezing austerity measures.
 


2004

Knowing that the Iraq war will take another 5 years and 3000 casualties under Bush and that Bush's ownership society will cause the economy to crash in 2007 and not recover in the foreseeable time thereafter.


2000
Knowing about the enite Bush v. Gore, and America's lost decade. See 2004.



Should be higher, but the Rovian machine prevents any second or third tier battlegrounds from forming.


1996

Knowing how strong the late 90s will be and how sleezy the GOP congressional machine will operate will give Clinton some extra strength.




1992- same as 1996, but Clinton will have to explain why he gets nothing done and loses congress in 1994.


1988- Well, we know now more than then that the Soviets would turn out to be incompetent (though the Soviet Union was already beginning to unravel). Bush's involvement in Iraq would hurt him for though he dealt with Saddam in the short term, we know now that it invited HW's son to the biggest military mindphuck since Vietnam. This would be a big thing since HW basically won by painiting Dukakis as a pussy. Also, Reaganomics would soon learn its limits with a slowdown around 1991 and that Bush would break his own promises to not raise taxes and concede on an issue that must have been very dear to him. We know now that Bush was basically the Carter-lite of the right. The election would have been like 2000 or 2004.

Bush 49.8% 278 EVs
Dukakis 48.9% 260 EVs


1984- We now know that the late 80s were time of cocaine, champagne and parachute pants. What a party. Iran-Contra would be seen as the only real negative and any bad consequences of Reaganomics we face today would be acknowledged only in the face of what we were then getting out of. Also, we now know that only Reagan could of saved the world from communism without a nuclear holocaust.

This is what would happen-

Same goes for 1980.


However, hindsight would have prevented the abominations known as the Nixon Administration and Carter Administration. Though I suspect that a Huphrey Administration would lose in 1972 from Democrat Fatigue and Carter would have lost to whoever won in 1976, provided they were not frauds and burglars.  
 
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NHI
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« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2011, 10:42:30 AM »

2008: Obama, closer, but still a significant victory
2004: Kerry narrowly
2000: Gore narrowly
1996: Clinton in a landslide
1992: Clinton in a landslide
1988: Bush narrowly
1984: Reagan in a landslide 50 states
1980: Reagan in a landslide: 49/50
1976: Ford narrowly
1972: Nixon narrowly
1968: Humphrey landslide
1964: Johnson 50 states
1960: Kennedy much wider margin
1956: Eisenhower landslide 50/50
1952: Eisenhower landslide
1948: Truman landslide
1944: FDR landslide
1940: FDR landslide
1936: FDR landslide
1932: FDR landslide 50 states
1928: Smith narrowly
1924: Coolidge narrowly
1920: Harding narrowly
1916: Wilson narrowly
1912: Roosevelt
1908: Taft narrowly
1904: Roosevelt in a landslide
1900: McKinley narrowly
1896: McKinley narrowly
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