North Carolina

[Jacobtm]

North Carolina was Obama's narrowest win in 2008. But with more and more yankees moving there, as well as hispanics, and 4 years of old racist people dying, it seems that Obama's chances there in 2012 aren't bad at all.

Does anyone have any good demographic info showing what's been going on in NC since the '08 election?

[Cincinnatus]

and 4 years of old racist people dying, it seems that Obama's chances there in 2012 aren't bad at all.

That seems like a rather general statement to me.  You seem to insinuate that only old people are racist.  Also, it seems that you assume "old racist" people are critical in North Carolina.  I'm not so sure this is the case, but if you have significant evidence to the contrary, I would be most appreciative to see it.

[Napoleon]

He insinuated no such thing and you know it. Racist old people will die off quicker than racist young people. Use your head.

Significant evidence-- Jesse Helms

[Cincinnatus]

He insinuated no such thing and you know it. Racist old people will die off quicker than racist young people. Use your head.

Significant evidence-- Jesse Helms

Which by definition means, racist young people will be the one's who further the divide between races for decades to come.  Maybe I'm being sensitive but, "4 years of old racist people dying" seems like a general statement.  Jesse Helms is a representation of what is wrong in North Carolina, yes.  However, the fact that the President beat Clinton in NC by a comfortable margin shows that there isn't a complete divide in the state.  I understand that racism exists in North Carolina, and yes, it exists among many seniors.  I'm just not convinced that this is the "end all be all" determining the elections.  I'm fairly certain that North Carolina has voted Republican based on the Popular vote until 2008, when the popular vote was in favor of the President.  African Americans make up what percentage there?  A little more than a fifth? 

For purposes of not confusing my intention; Yes, racism exists in North Carolina.  Racism exists everywhere I have ever been.  It's unfortunate that race divides Americans.  Yet, I don't think this is the deciding factor for an election in 2012.  The economy will be a deciding factor among the large MAJORITY of the populace.  Perhaps I'm naive but, this is my opinion. 

[Napoleon]

Obama beat Clinton because of the strength of the black vote in the Democratic Party, just like he did in Strong Thurmond's state. I'm starting to think you're trolling.

[Cincinnatus]

Obama beat Clinton because of the strength of the black vote in the Democratic Party, just like he did in Strong Thurmond's state. I'm starting to think you're trolling.

Then I'll just cease my argument.  No point in me being less than cordial or arguing my point.  To address the original point (Which I admit, I failed to), I think the recent demographic shift will have some impact on the next election, albeit I don't think it will be significant.  The economy will be the biggest factor, and depending on where it is next year, the President will either face criticism because of it, or be the reason it rebounded to many people.  


http://www.270towin.com/states/North_Carolina

There has been a large increase in the minority population relative to the last census.

[JewCon]

I think NC leans slightly Republican.  I say the GOP Nominee captures North Carolina by 1 to 6 points (if Charlotte wasnt the DNC Convention site I think the GOP would win it be 6 to 9 points).

It will be close though.

[Skill and Chance]

Count me on record that, whatever the national result in 2012, NC will give Obama a larger percentage than his national average.

[Smash255]

I think NC is going to wind up being fairly close to the national margin.  If the national margin is close, NC will be on the bubble.  If Obama wins nationally like he did in 08, he will have a fairly comfortable margin in NC.

[Franzl]

I'd say the break-even point is about a 4% margin of victory nationally. Which is pretty impressive for someone like Obama in North Carolina.

[Smash255]

I'd say the break-even point is about a 4% margin of victory nationally. Which is pretty impressive for someone like Obama in North Carolina.

I would even say less than that at this point.  The trend in NC, more Yankees coming down, growing minority population, etc, probably moves it to that point as it is (if not less).  The convention in Charlotte perhaps diminishes the national margin a bit as well. 

 Of course candidates also have an impact.    Despite the northerners moving down, Huckabee still appears to be a stronger candidate in NC than Romney, so Obama would need to defeat Huckabee by a larger margin nationally to take NC than he would need to beat Romney nationally to take it. 

I would be surprised if NC is more than 2-3% more GOP than the national average, and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it winds up being one of if not the closest states to the national average.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I have long said the NC has been transforming and that the stronger candidates will be those that do well in Mecklenburg and Wake, mostly through some kind of connection or origination in those counties like Pat McCrory being a former Mayor of Charlotte. None of the Presidential candidates have any special appeal to these areas and none have ever campaigned in NC before. In order to win NC, they are going to play hard for it, regardless of which side it is.

[TomC]

Enthusiasm and turnout could give to Obama again. A close race with turnout markedly lower than 2008, he'll have a tough time keeping it. 

[Dancing with Myself]

I think the win in 08 was due to good campaigning by Obama. If the Republican candidate has any sense, and decides to campaign better than McCain did, the said person will win easily.

[Cincinnatus]

I think the win in 08 was due to good campaigning by Obama. If the Republican candidate has any sense, and decides to campaign better than McCain did, the said person will win easily.

If the person has any personality that's appealing and enthusiastic he'll do better than McCain.  I give a lot of credit to the President's ability to campaign and speak publicly.  Not many people have that ability.

[auburntiger]

If North Carolina is at the national average, what states will be moving rightward to offset that? I could see Iowa moving right, and have NC more Republican than Ohio, Florida, and Missouri this time. ACtually, I could see this in an Obama/Romney matchup, where it's a close race, but NC ends up going to the President by <1% as it did in 2008.

300-238 Obama

[Stranger in a strange land]

Actually given that Obama's opponent will likely be a terrible candidate and a terrible fit for the state, I'd say he has a pretty good chance of winning NC - better than winning IN, FL, or even OH.

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

If North Carolina is at the national average, what states will be moving rightward to offset that? I could see Iowa moving right, and have NC more Republican than Ohio, Florida, and Missouri this time. ACtually, I could see this in an Obama/Romney matchup, where it's a close race, but NC ends up going to the President by <1% as it did in 2008.

300-238 Obama

I agree with everything there except Ohio. How does he lose that and win NC?

[auburntiger]

If North Carolina is at the national average, what states will be moving rightward to offset that? I could see Iowa moving right, and have NC more Republican than Ohio, Florida, and Missouri this time. ACtually, I could see this in an Obama/Romney matchup, where it's a close race, but NC ends up going to the President by <1% as it did in 2008.

300-238 Obama

I agree with everything there except Ohio. How does he lose that and win NC?

He may very well not lose Ohio, but this map was to illustrate how close the election could be while Obama still wins NC.

[Penelope]

He will get somewhere between 50% and 55% in the state.

[GeorgiaSenator]

North Carolina was Obama's narrowest win in 2008. But with more and more yankees moving there, as well as hispanics, and 4 years of old racist people dying, it seems that Obama's chances there in 2012 aren't bad at all.

Does anyone have any good demographic info showing what's been going on in NC since the '08 election?

You mean the racists who voted for democrats for years and years becasue they thought the GOP was the pary of the rich??