Canada 2011 Predictions... if you dare

[2952-0-0]

National:
Cons 36% 139 seats
NDP: 32% 97 seats
Liberal: 21% 57 seats
Bloc: 5% 14 seats
Green 4% 1 seat

Ontario:
Cons 39% 53 seats
NDP 30% 29 seats
Liberal 27% 24 seats
Green 3%

Quebec:
NDP 43% 54 seats
Bloc 25% 14 seats
Liberal 16% 5 seats
Cons 14% 2 seats
Green 1%

Ignatieff wins embarrassingly closely while Duceppe loses his seat. Both are gone immediately. Harper quite transparently tries to cling to power by making goodies for the rump Liberals or individual Liberals, but this backfires spectacularly and the Conservative Party is plagued by dissent and defections.

Fun prediction: because the NDP and Liberals also need Elizabeth May to form a majority, she extracts large concessions on environmental issues and the coalition is derided as beholden to a hippie on the right.

Saanich-Gulf Islands: Green
Vancouver Centre: Liberal, but embarrassingly close to even for all four parties
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar: NDP
Ajax-Pickering: Liberal
Guelph: Conservative
Oshawa: Conservative
Kenora: NDP
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou: NDP
Portneuf-Jaques-Cartier: NDP
Pontiac: NDP
South Shore-St. Margaret's: NDP
St. John's South-Mt. Pearl: NDP

[Хahar 🤔]

historic wipeout in the West

Almost certainly better than the late Trudeau years, though. In 1980 the westernmost Liberal seat was Winnipeg-Fort Garry (essentially South Centre), despite the party winning a majority government.

Interestingly, a majority of the Liberal caucus was from Quebec.

Taking a quick look at other elections, in 1993, 1997 and 2000 a large majority of the Liberal caucus was from Ontario. Those are the only times since the War that a majority of the parliamentary majority has come from one province.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wascana: CON gain from LIB

This one is interesting; Goodale's been around for a long time. I don't see it.

It's not that likely, but then things do look worse for him than they have since 2000; regional subsamples might not be too reliable, but they look really bleak in his part of the world and certain specific elements to the national picture might make it tempting for some of that legion of Dippers for Goodale to just vote NDP. Voters in Saskatchewan aren't all that sentimental about electoral institutions anyway.

[Verily]

Ontario

CON: 53 (+2)
NDP: 25 (+8)
LIB: 28 (-10)

Ajax—Pickering: LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing: NDP
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale: CON
Barrie: CON
Beaches—East York: NDP gain from LIB
Bramalea—Gore—Malton: CON gain from LIB
Brampton—Springdale: CON gain from LIB
Brampton West: CON gain from LIB
Brant: CON
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound: CON
Burlington: CON
Cambridge: CON
Carleton—Mississippi Mills: CON
Chatham-Kent—Essex: CON
Davenport: NDP gain from LIB
Don Valley East: LIB
Don Valley West: LIB
Dufferin—Caledon: CON
Durham: CON
Eglinton—Lawrence: CON
Elgin—Middlesex—London: CON
Essex: CON
Etobicoke Centre: LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore: LIB
Etobicoke North: LIB
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell: CON
Guelph: NDP gain from LIB (Controversy! Whatever; in a crazy election one must make crazy calls to be the best forecaster.)
Haldimand—Norfolk: CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock: CON
Halton: CON
Hamilton Centre: NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek: NDP
Hamilton Mountain: NDP
Huron—Bruce: CON
Kenora: CON
Kingston and the Islands: NDP gain from LIB (More controversy!)
Kitchener Centre: CON
Kitchener—Conestoga: CON
Kitchener—Waterloo:CON
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex: CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington: CON
Leeds—Grenville: CON
London—Fanshawe: NDP
London North Centre: NDP gain from LIB (See above)
London West: CON
Markham—Unionville: LIB
Mississauga—Brampton South: LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville: LIB
Mississauga—Erindale: CON
Mississauga South: LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville: LIB
Nepean—Carleton: CON
Newmarket—Aurora: CON
Niagara Falls: CON
Niagara West—Glanbrook: CON
Nickel Belt: NDP
Nipissing—Timiskaming: LIB
Northumberland—Quinte West: CON
Oak Ridges—Markham: CON
Oakville: CON
Oshawa: NDP gain from CON (Whatever, maybe not, worth forecasting anyway.)
Ottawa Centre: NDP
Ottawa—Orléans: CON
Ottawa South: LIB
Ottawa—Vanier: LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean: CON
Oxford: CON
Parkdale—High Park: NDP gain from LIB
Parry Sound—Muskoka:  CON
Perth—Wellington: CON
Peterborough: CON
Pickering—Scarborough East: LIB
Prince Edward—Hastings: CON
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke: CON
Richmond Hill: LIB
St. Catharines: CON
St. Paul's: LIB
Sarnia—Lambton: CON
Sault Ste. Marie: NDP
Scarborough—Agincourt: LIB
Scarborough Centre: LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood: LIB
Scarborough—Rouge River: LIB
Scarborough Southwest: LIB
Simcoe—Grey: CON
Simcoe North: CON
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry: CON
Sudbury: NDP
Thornhill: CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River: NDP
Thunder Bay—Superior North: NDP
Timmins—James Bay: NDP
Toronto Centre: LIB
Toronto—Danforth: NDP
Trinity—Spadina: NDP
Vaughan: CON
Welland: NDP
Wellington—Halton Hills: CON
Whitby—Oshawa: CON
Willowdale: LIB
Windsor—Tecumseh: NDP
Windsor West: NDP
York Centre: LIB
York—Simcoe: CON
York South—Weston: NDP gain from LIB
York West: LIB


Okay, a bit radical here, but I'm sticking with it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With that general pattern, stick Scarborough SW on as well. Not as super-solid as the rest of the Scarborough seats for the Liberals, bad Tory candidate, good NDP candidate and an impressive NDP past.

[Verily]

With that general pattern, stick Scarborough SW on as well. Not as super-solid as the rest of the Scarborough seats for the Liberals, bad Tory candidate, good NDP candidate and an impressive NDP past.

I was going for areas with lots of youngish liberals. I don't think Scarborough SW fits that pattern, does it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With that general pattern, stick Scarborough SW on as well. Not as super-solid as the rest of the Scarborough seats for the Liberals, bad Tory candidate, good NDP candidate and an impressive NDP past.

I was going for areas with lots of youngish liberals. I don't think Scarborough SW fits that pattern, does it?

No, but then neither does York South-Weston.

[Verily]

With that general pattern, stick Scarborough SW on as well. Not as super-solid as the rest of the Scarborough seats for the Liberals, bad Tory candidate, good NDP candidate and an impressive NDP past.

I was going for areas with lots of youngish liberals. I don't think Scarborough SW fits that pattern, does it?

No, but then neither does York South-Weston.

True; that's a different pattern. It's certainly possible.

[Foucaulf]

Will try to predict all the seat switches and calculate the seat totals at the end. Predictions are ranked in order of confidence, except for the Quebec ones. Starting out from the West and moving my way East:

BRITISH COLUMBIA:
Surrey North: CON -> NDP
Vancouver Island North: CON -> NDP
Kootenay-Columbia: CON -> NDP
Nanaimo-Alberni: CON -> NDP
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo: CON -> NDP
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam: CON -> NDP
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca: LIB -> CON

Conservative 17 (-5), NDP 15 (+6), Liberal 4 (-1), Green 0 (uc)

ALBERTA:
Edmonton East: CON -> NDP

Conservative 26 (-1), NDP 2 (+1)

SASKATCHEWAN:
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River: CON -> NDP
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar: CON -> NDP

Conservative 11 (-2), NDP 2 (+2), Liberal 1 (uc)

MANITOBA:
Winnipeg North: LIB -> NDP

Conservative 9 (uc), NDP 4 (+1), Liberal 1 (-1)

ONTARIO:
Kingston and the Islands: LIB -> CON
Brampton West: LIB -> CON
Parkdale-High Park: LIB -> NDP
Ajax-Pickering: LIB -> CON
Oshawa: CON -> NDP
Davenport: LIB -> NDP
Bramalea-Gore-Malton: LIB -> CON
Essex: CON -> NDP
Mississauga South: LIB -> CON
Eglinton-Lawrence: LIB -> CON
Etobicoke Centre: LIB -> CON
Simcoe-Grey: CON -> IND
York Centre: LIB -> CON
London North Centre: LIB -> CON
Guelph: LIB -> NDP
Scarborough-Agincourt: LIB -> CON
Ottawa South: LIB -> CON

Conservative 59 (+8), Liberal 24 (-14), NDP 22 (+5), Independent (Guergis)

QUEBEC:
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou: BQ -> NDP
Ahuntsic: BQ -> LIB
Alfred-Pellan: BQ -> NDP
Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel: BQ -> NDP
Beauport-Limoilou: BQ -> NDP
Brome-Missisquoi: BQ -> NDP
Brossard-La Prairie: LIB -> NDP
Chambly-Borduas: BQ -> NDP
Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles: CON -> NDP
Châteauguay-Saint-Constant: BQ -> NDP
Compton-Stanstead: BQ -> NDP
Drummond: BQ -> NDP
Gatineau: BQ -> NDP
Honoré-Mercier: LIB -> NDP
Hull-Aylmer: LIB -> NDP
Jeanne-Le Ber: BQ -> NDP
La-Point-de-L'Île: BQ -> NDP
Lac-Saint-Louis: LIB -> NDP
LaSalle-Émard: LIB -> NDP
Laurier-St-Marie: BQ -> NDP
Laval: BQ -> NDP
Laval-Les Îles: LIB -> NDP
Longueil-Pierre Boucher: BQ -> NDP
Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière: CON -> NDP
Louis-Hébert: BQ -> NDP
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin: BQ -> NDP
Mégantic-L'Érable: CON -> NDP
Montcalm: BQ -> NDP
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine: LIB -> NDP
Papineau: LIB -> BQ
Pontiac: CON -> NDP
Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier: IND ->  NDP
Québec: BQ -> NDP
Repentigny: BQ -> NDP
Rivière-des-Milles-Îles: BQ -> NDP
Rivière-du-Nord: BQ -> NDP
Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie: BQ -> NDP
Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert: BQ -> NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot: BQ -> NDP
Saint-Lambert: BQ -> NDP
Shefford: BQ -> NDP
Terrebonne - Blaineville: BQ -> NDP
Trois-Rivières: BQ -> NDP
Verchères-Les Patriotes: BQ -> NDP
Westmount-Ville-Marie: LIB -> NDP

NDP 44 (+43), BQ 17 (-30), Liberals 7 (-8), Conservative 7 (-4)

MARITIMES:
Avalon: LIB -> CON
St. John's South-Mount Pearl: LIB -> NDP
Madawaska-Restigouche: LIB -> CON
South Shore-St Margaret's: CON -> NDP
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe: LIB -> CON
Dartmouth-Cole Harbour: LIB -> NDP
Halifax West: LIB -> NDP
Central Nova: CON -> NDP

Liberal 11 (-6), Conservative 11 (+1), NDP 9 (+5)


FINAL:
CONSERVATIVES: 141 (-2)
NEW DEMOCRATS: 100 (+64)
LIBERALS: 49 (-29 w/Milliken)
BLOC: 17 (-30)
INDEPENDENT: 1 (Guergis)

[Verily]

Quebec

Tallies in a minute, but basically total Bloc wipeout (including the loss of all seats even remotely in the Montreal metro except Vaudreuil-Soulanges). If my preliminary calculations are correct, I have them on just 13 seats.

Edit:

CON: 6 (-4)
NDP: 48 (+47)
LIB: 8 (-6)
BQ: 13 (-37)
IND: 0 (-1)

There's a missing seat in there somewhere. Someone want to check my totals?

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou: NDP gain from BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue: NDP gain from BQ
Ahuntsic: LIB gain from BQ
Alfred-Pellan: NDP gain from BQ
Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel: NDP gain from BQ
Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet—Bécancour: BQ
Beauce: CON
Beauharnois—Salaberry: NDP gain from BQ
Beauport—Limoilou: NDP gain from CON
Berthier—Maskinongé: BQ
Bourassa: LIB
Brome—Missisquoi: NDP gain from BQ
Brossard—La Prairie: NDP gain from LIB
Chambly—Borduas: NDP gain from BQ
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles: NDP gain from CON
Châteauguay—Saint-Constant: NDP gain from BQ
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord: BQ
Compton—Stanstead: NDP gain from BQ
Drummond: NDP gain from BQ
Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine: BQ
Gatineau: NDP gain from BQ
Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia: BQ
Hochelaga: NDP gain from BQ
Honoré-Mercier: NDP gain from LIB
Hull—Aylmer: NDP gain from LIB
Jeanne-Le Ber: NDP gain from BQ
Joliette: NDP gain from BQ
Jonquière—Alma: NDP gain from CON
La Pointe-de-l'Île: NDP gain from BQ
Lac-Saint-Louis: LIB
LaSalle—Émard: NDP gain from LIB
Laurentides—Labelle: BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie: NDP gain from BQ (and not particularly close, either)
Laval: NDP gain from BQ
Laval—Les Îles: NDP gain from LIB
Lévis—Bellechasse: CON
Longueuil—Pierre-Boucher: NDP gain from BQ
Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière: NDP gain from CON
Louis-Hébert: NDP gain from BQ
Louis-Saint-Laurent: CON
Manicouagan: BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin: NDP gain from BQ
Mégantic—L'Érable: CON
Montcalm: NDP gain from BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup: CON
Montmorency—Charlevoix—Haute-Côte-Nord: BQ
Mount Royal: LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine: NDP gain from LIB
Outremont: NDP
Papineau: LIB (although predicting Trudeau!fail is very tempting)
Pierrefonds—Dollard: LIB
Pontiac: NDP gain from CON
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier: NDP gain from IND
Québec: NDP gain from BQ
Repentigny: NDP gain from BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska: BQ
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques: BQ
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles: NDP gain from BQ
Rivière-du-Nord: NDP gain from BQ
Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean: CON
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie: NDP gain from BQ
Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert: NDP gain from BQ
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot: NDP gain from BQ
Saint-Jean: BQ
Saint-Lambert: NDP gain from BQ
Saint-Laurent—Cartierville: LIB
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel: LIB
Saint-Maurice—Champlain: BQ
Shefford: NDP gain from BQ
Sherbrooke: NDP gain from BQ
Terrebonne—Blainville: NDP gain from BQ
Trois-Rivières: NDP gain from BQ
Vaudreuil-Soulanges: BQ
Verchères—Les Patriotes: NDP gain from BQ
Westmount—Ville-Marie: NDP gain from LIB

[Хahar 🤔]

I count 48 NDP.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I'm always terrified of making predictions, so I'll just do with something a bit more safe and say that the NDP will finish with at least 80 seats and form the official opposition, and that the Conservatives will have a net loss of a few seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

My popular vote prediction:

Cons: 37%
NDP: 28%
Libs: 22%
BQ: 6%
Greens: 4%

[MaxQue]

Federal vote:
Conservative: 38%
NDP: 33%
Liberals: 18%
Bloc: 6%

Quebec:
NDP: 37%
BQ: 25%
Cons: 19%
Libs: 12%

Ontario:
Cons: 40%
NDP: 30%
Libs: 27%

Seats:
Saanich-Gulf Islands: Green, but by an hair. A very thin hair, with 50% of odds of being wrong.
Vancouver Centre: Liberal. Won't move until Hedy Fry retires. After, who knows? (gain from Conservative)
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar: Conservative. NDP's fools gold.
Ajax-Pickering: Liberal. Holland can thanks being the incumbent.
Guelph: Liberal. Young vote saves him.
Oshawa: Conservative. Won't go anywhere.
Kenora: NDP. With their poll numbers, they have to win seats somewhere. (gain from Conservative)
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou. My home riding. I'll vote for the NDP and my polling station is at the Christian Centre. I'll say NDP, because of the polls, but BQ, Conservatives and Liberals can win, too. (gain from NDP)
Portneuf-Jaques-Cartier: André Arthur, sadly.
Pontiac: NDP. Cannon is too weak in the French areas. Bloc was too weak in English areas. (gain from Conservative)
South Shore-St. Margaret's: NDP. With the possible wave, let's try. (gain from Conservative)
St. John's South-Mt. Pearl: NDP. ABC boosted the Liberal vote last time (gain from Liberal)

Full prediction in my next post.

[MaxQue]

Full prediction. Thanks to Verily, I copied his format.

British Columbia

Summary:
CON: 20 (-2)
NDP: 13 (+4)
LIB: 2 (-3)
GRN: 1 (+1)

Abbotsford: CON. Bible Belt. Zzzzzzzzzz.
British Columbia Southern Interior: NDP. Won by 12% in 2008, enough said.
Burnaby—Douglas: NDP. Was to be lost by the NDP, but the bump in the bump will save it.
Burnaby—New Westminster: NDP. Julian won by 16 and is a rising star in a rising party.
Cariboo—Prince George: CON. Could be interesting when the incumbent retires, but I doubt it.
Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon: CON. Safe seat for the Strahl family.
Delta—Richmond East: CON. Liberals could have won during better times, but not NDP.
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca: NDP gain from LIB . Yes, but Conservatives can win too. Will be very tight.
Fleetwood—Port Kells: CON
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo: CON. But NDP will be close.
Kelowna—Lake Country: CON. Kelowna, simple.
Kootenay—Columbia: CON. Abbott is leaving, NDP will be close, but not enough.
Langley: CON.
Nanaimo—Alberni: CON. But very close too. A bigger wave than excepted could make fall it, among other BC seats
Nanaimo—Cowichan: NDP. With be interesting without the NDP bump, but, not this time.
Newton—North Delta: NDP gain from LIB. Could be a Conservative win, too, but NDP has a good candidate, it seems. Liberals, too. Three-ways race.
New Westminster—Coquitlam: NDP. A re-run of the by-election, with the same result.
North Vancouver: CON. Liberals could win under better times, but not now.
Okanagan—Coquihalla: CON. Unless the dissident Conservative does better than forecasted, safe Conservative.
Okanagan—Shuswap: CON.
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission: CON. Should be interesting when the incumbent retires, but, not now.
Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam: CON. Boring
Prince George—Peace River: CON. A by-election could have been interesting, but a general election kills the slim NDP odds.
Richmond: CON. Voters will vote for the real reformist, not the former one.
Saanich—Gulf Islands: GRN gain from CON. See above
Skeena—Bulkley Valley: NDP. NDP got 50%, last time. Another raising star, I think.
South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale: CON. Zzzzzzzzzzzzz
Surrey North: NDP gain from CON. Cadman won in 2008 because of the maverick reputation of her husband. She is not a maverick, NDP will gain back the seat.
Vancouver Centre: LIB
Vancouver East: NDP. 54-17, last time. Libby Davies is very safe.
Vancouver Island North: NDP gain from CON. NDP bump means the seat will switch again. Or not?
Vancouver Kingsway: NDP. Could have been an interesting Liberal-NDP race, since the riding seems more Liberal than NDP to me, but polls disagrees.
Vancouver Quadra: LIB. Conservatives will be close, but they won't win, I think.
Vancouver South: CON gain from LIB. NDP voters won't bother to help turn-coat Dosanjh.
Victoria: NDP. Savoie won by 17%. Easy keep.
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country: CON. No reason to swing to another party.


Alberta:

Conservatives: 27 (0)
NDP: 1 (0)

The NDP seat is obviously Edmonton-Strathcona. I wouldn't be surprised by a NDP win in Edmonton-East, or a win of the Independent in Edmonton-Sherwood Park.


Saskatchewan

CON: 12 (0)
LIB: 1 (0)
NDP: 0 (0)

Battlefords—Lloydminster: CON
Blackstrap: CON
Cypress Hills—Grasslands: CON
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River: CON. Unless Native vote is way up, NDP won't win it.
Palliser: CON
Prince Albert: CON
Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre: CON
Regina—Qu'Appelle: CON
Saskatoon—Humboldt: CON
Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar: CON. See above. I'll believe it when I'll see it.
Saskatoon—Wanuskewin: CON
Souris—Moose Mountain: CON
Wascana: LIB. Until Goodale retires, his seat will stay Liberal.
Yorkton—Melville: CON


Manitoba

CON: 9 (0)
NDP: 4 (+1)
LIB: 1 (-1)

Brandon—Souris: CON. Rural Prairies. Yawn.
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia: CON. Fletcher is safe.
Churchill: NDP. Not moving, not with the Liberals down.
Dauphin—Swan River—Marquette: CON. Re-run of the by-election.
Elmwood—Transcona: NDP. Quickly trending to the Conservatives, but the NDP bump should save it for the NDP.
Kildonan—St. Paul: CON. Boring suburbs.
Portage—Lisgar: CON. Farms, farms, farms...
Provencher: CON. ... farms, farms, farms.
Saint Boniface: CON. Liberals are too low to think about retaking that seat.
Selkirk—Interlake: CON. Rural Prairies, yawn, again.
Winnipeg Centre: NDP. Pat Martin is safe.
Winnipeg North: NDP gain from LIB. Lamoureux will lose his by-election seat, NDP voters will turn out, this time.
Winnipeg South: CON. Liberals are too low to be in the play in that riding.
Winnipeg South Centre: LIB. Neville will be saved by the incumbency, I think. But it will be close.

Territories:
Yukon: LIB
Western Arctic: NDP
Nunavut: CON


Newfoundland and Labrador

CON: 1 (+1)
NDP: 3 (+2)
LIB: 3 (-3)

Avalon: CON gain from LIB. Will be close, as NDP seems totally irrelevent there.
Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor: LIB. Western Newfoundland is quite Liberal.
Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte: LIB. Again.
Labrador: LIB. Labrador is a very Liberal seat. It could swing, sure, but where?
Random—Burin—St. George's: NDP gain from LIB. Yes, random call, but why not? All predictions needs some crazy calls. A perfect LIB-CON split allows NDP wave to go through.
St. John's East: NDP. Jack Harris. 75% last time.
St. John's South—Mount Pearl: NDP gain from LIB. The wave will swing that LIB-NDP marginal.


Prince Edward Island

CON: 1 (0)
LIB: 2 (-1)
NDP: 1 (+1)

Cardigan: LIB. Incumbent will be reelected.
Charlottetown: NDP gain from LIB. Let's be crazy again. Open seat and the only part of PEI where NDP seems to really exist.
Egmont: CON. Liberals are too weak to re-take Egmont, despite NDP being non-existant, there.
Malpeque: LIB


Nova Scotia

CON: 3 (-1)
NDP: 4 (+2)
LIB: 4 (-1)

Cape Breton—Canso: LIB. Cuzner is not removable, I think. That will be interesting when he will retires.
Central Nova: CON. If May couldn't take MacKay out, it won't happen. To check when MacKay will retire, though.
Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley: CON. Should be safe for the Conversative, even if the place is surprisingly NDP-friendly, provincially.
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour: NDP gain from LIB. A NDP-LIB marginal. Considering the circumstances, I favour NDP there.
Halifax: NDP. Won 43-27 against Liberals last time.
Halifax West: LIB. Once Regan retires, NDP should be able to take the seat. Now, it wil be close, but incumbency will save Regan.
Kings—Hants: LIB. Scott Brison wins a three-ways race, but barely.
Sackville—Eastern Shore: NDP. Stoffer got 61% last time.
South Shore—St. Margaret's: NDP gain from CON. Wave should finally swing this seat to NDP.
Sydney—Victoria: LIB, Eyking should be re-elected. Seat will be interesting once Eyking retires.
West Nova: CON. Liberals not re-gaining a seat this time.


New Brunswick

CON: 5 (-1)
NDP: 2 (+1)
LIB: 3 (nc)

Acadie—Bathurst: NDP. Yvon Godin. We will see what happens once he retires, but he has the seat for as long as he wants.
Beauséjour: LIB. LeBlance is a rising star in the Liberals. One of the rare safe Liberal seats left.
Fredericton: CON. Ashfield is safe, Liberals are too low.
Fundy Royal: CON. It even voter for PC in the 90's.
Madawaska—Restigouche: LIB. Incumbency can do wonders.
Miramichi: CON. Liberals are too low to gain back on May 2.
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe: LIB. I just don't see Conservatives winning there
New Brunswick Southwest: CON. Even if Thompson retired, the seat should be safe.
Saint John: NDP gain from CON Why not? There must be some remainder of NDP force from the time than Weir was the provincial leader there.
Tobique—Mactaquac: CON. Boring.

In another post: Ontario, Québec and totals.

[Horus]

This may look crazy, just going with my gut.

Tories - 37
NDP - 35
Liberal - 17
Bloc - 5

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Let me see if I can get the whole country done. I predict all the following flips:

Newfoundland and Labrador
Avalon: CON gain from LIB
St. John's South—Mount Pearl: NDP gain from LIB

CON: 1 (+1)
LIB: 4 (-2)
NDP: 2 (+1)

Prince Edward Island
Malpeque: CON gain from LIB

CON: 2 (+1)
LIB: 2 (-1)

Nova Scotia
Cape Breton–Canso: NDP gain from LIB
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour: NDP gain from LIB
Halifax West: NDP gain from LIB
Kings—Hants: NDP gain from LIB
South Shore—St. Margaret's: NDP gain from CON

CON: 3 (-1)
LIB: 1 (-4)
NDP: 7 (+5)

New Brunswick
Madawaska—Restigouche: CON gain from LIB
Miramichi: NDP gain from CON
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe: CON gain from LIB

CON: 7 (+1)
LIB: 1 (-2)
NDP: 2 (+1)

Quebec
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques: NDP gain from BQ
Beauport—Limoilou: NDP gain from CON
Louis-Hébert: NDP gain from BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé: NDP gain from BQ
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier: NDP gain from IND
Brome—Missisquoi: NDP gain from BQ
Compton—Stanstead: NDP gain from BQ
Drummond: NDP gain from BQ
Shefford: NDP gain from BQ
Brossard—La Prairie: NDP gain from LIB
Châteauguay—Saint-Constant: NDP gain from BQ
Longueuil—Pierre-Boucher: NDP gain from BQ
Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert: NDP gain from BQ
Saint-Lambert: NDP gain from BQ
Vaudreuil-Soulanges: NDP gain from BQ
Jeanne-Le Ber: NDP gain from BQ
LaSalle—Émard: NDP gain from LIB
Westmount—Ville-Marie: NDP gain from LIB
Ahuntsic: NDP gain from BQ (though if the Liberals actually gain any seats, this is most likely)
Alfred-Pellan: NDP gain from BQ
Laval: NDP gain from BQ
Papineau: BQ gain from LIB
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou: CON gain from BQ
Gatineau: NDP gain from BQ
Hull—Aylmer: NDP gain from LIB

NDP: 24 (+23)
LIB: 9 (-5)
CON: 10
BQ: 31 (-18)

Ontario
Kingston and the Islands: CON gain from LIB
Ajax—Pickering: CON gain from LIB
Oshawa: NDP gain from CON
Pickering—Scarborough East: CON gain from LIB
Richmond Hill: CON gain from LIB
Vaughan: CON gain from LIB
Etobicoke Centre: CON gain from LIB
Scarborough Southwest: NDP gain from LIB
York Centre: CON gain from LIB
Beaches—East York: NDP gain from LIB
Davenport: NDP gain from LIB
Don Valley West: CON gain from LIB
Eglinton—Lawrence: CON gain from LIB
Parkdale—High Park: NDP gain from LIB
York South—Weston: NDP gain from LIB
Bramalea—Gore—Malton: CON gain from LIB
Brampton—Springdale: CON gain from LIB
Brampton West: CON gain from LIB
Mississauga South: CON gain from LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville: Just mentioning that I'll go a bit out on a limb and predict the Liberals HOLD this one.
Niagara Falls: NDP gain from CON
Guelph: NDP gain from LIB
Essex: NDP gain from CON
London North Centre: NDP gain from LIB
Kenora: NDP gain from CON

CON: 60 (+9)
LIB: 18 (-20)
NDP: 28 (+11)

Manitoba
Winnipeg South Centre: CON gain from LIB

CON: 10 (+1)
LIB: 0 (-1)
NDP: 4

Saskatchewan
Palliser: NDP gain from CON
Wascana: CON gain from LIB
Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar: NDP gain from CON

CON: 12 (-1)
LIB: 0 (-1)
NDP: 2 (+2)

Alberta
Edmonton—Sherwood Park: IND gain from CON (isn't that guy some sort of Canadian teabagger?)

CON: 26 (-1)
LIB: 0
NDP: 1
IND: 1 (+1)

British Columbia
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo: NDP gain from CON
Newton—North Delta: NDP gain from LIB
Surrey North: NDP gain from CON
Vancouver Centre: NDP gain from LIB
Vancouver Quadra: CON gain from LIB
Vancouver South: CON gain from LIB
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca: NDP gain from LIB
Nanaimo—Alberni: NDP gain from CON
Vancouver Island North: NDP gain from CON
Saanich—Gulf Islands: GREEN gain from CON

CON: 19 (-3)
LIB: 0 (-5)
NDP: 16 (+7)
GREEN: 1 (+1)

Nunavut
Nunavut: NDP gain from CON

CON: 0 (-1)
LIB: 0
NDP: 1 (+1)

Northwest Territories
CON: 0
LIB: 0
NDP: 1

Yukon
CON: 0
LIB: 1
NDP: 0

Total:

CON: 150 (+7)
LIB: 36 (-41)
NDP: 88 (+51)
BQ: 31 (-18)
GRN: 1 (+1)
IND: 1

[Smid]

My final prediction:



I'll provide details later, but I wanted to lock those results in now, so no one can say I put my results in late.

Overall, I'm expecting:

Atlantic: 31.5% C, 37% N, 28.5% L, 3% G
Quebec: 14.5% C, 42% N, 14.5% L, 3% G, 26% B
Ontario: 40% C, 29% N, 26% L, 5% G
Manitoba/Saskatchewan: 51% C, 28% N, 15.5% L, 5.5% G
Alberta: 62.5% C, 19% N, 11.25% L, 7.25% G
(Prairies Sub-Total: 56.75% C, 23.5% N, 13.38% L, 6.38% G)
British Columbia: 40% C, 36% N, 15% L, 9% G

Which I think works out Nationally to be:

Conservative - 35.91%
NDP - 32.85%
Liberal - 19.82%
Bloc - 6.39%
Greens - 5.02%

(Or round off to 36-33-20-6-5)

I'll work out my seat total later and post in a new post (so this one doesn't have an edit time).

Note that Saanich-Gulf Islands is a pale shade of Green.

[minionofmidas]

I shall not dare.

[Hash]

I don't see how the Liberals hold Madawaska—Restigouche. The Tory candidate is Bernard Valcourt.

[Verily]

My tallied up projection (predicting holds in the three northern seats).

CON: 142 (-3)
NDP: 101 (+65)
LIB: 51 (-26)
BQ: 13 (-36)
GRN: 1 (+1)
IND: 0 (-1)

Popular vote
CON: 35.5%
NDP: 32.1%
LIB: 19.7%
BQ: 5.6%
GRN: 4.7%

Quebec (will break down seat totals in a minute)
NDP: 40.1%
BQ: 25.4%
LIB: 14.5%
CON: 13.3%

Ontario
CON: 38.8%
NDP: 25.6%
LIB: 25.3%

Saanich-Gulf Islands: GRN
Vancouver Centre: LIB
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar: NDP
Ajax-Pickering: LIB
Guelph: NDP
Oshawa: NDP
Kenora: CON
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou: NDP
Portneuf-Jaques-Cartier: NDP
Pontiac: NDP
South Shore-St. Margaret's: NDP
St. John's South-Mt. Pearl: NDP


Will any leaders resign by the end of the week?
Ignatieff. Duceppe will not resign despite losing his seat but will be forced out within a month.

[Dan the Roman]

Con 144
NDP 95
Liberal 53
Bloc 15
Green 1

Popular Vote
Conservative 37.1%
NDP   30.9%
Liberal 20.2%
Bloc 5.8%
Green 4.1%

Quebec
NDP 38
Bloc 26
Con 16
Lib  15
(Seat breakdwon later)

Ontario
Con 40
Lib 27
NDP 26

Upset call, both Vernier and Cannon survive, given the bad press received by NDP candidates in both ridings lately. Otherwise agree with most calls.

[cinyc]

I rarely dare because I'm terrible at predictions.  These will be proven totally wrong by midnight, for sure.

Conservatives 39.3%
NDP 27.8%
Liberals 21.5%
Bloc 6.7%
Green 4.2%
Other 0.5%

NDP slightly under-performs polling due to the lack of a ground game, especially in Quebec.  Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc slightly over-perform due to more established ground operations.

Seats:
Conservatives 154
NDP 69
Liberals 54
Bloc 30
Green 0
Other 1 (Arthur)


Saanich-Gulf Islands - CON
Vancouver Centre - LIB, barely
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar - CON
Ajax-Pickering - CON
Guelph - CON
Oshawa - CON
Kenora - CON
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou - BLOC
Portneuf-Jaques-Cartier - IND
Pontiac - CON
South Shore-St. Margaret's - NDP
St. John's South-Mt. Pearl - NDP

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

My final prediction:



I'll provide details later, but I wanted to lock those results in now, so no one can say I put my results in late.

Overall, I'm expecting:

Atlantic: 31.5% C, 37% N, 28.5% L, 3% G
Quebec: 14.5% C, 42% N, 14.5% L, 3% G, 26% B
Ontario: 40% C, 29% N, 26% L, 5% G
Manitoba/Saskatchewan: 51% C, 28% N, 15.5% L, 5.5% G
Alberta: 62.5% C, 19% N, 11.25% L, 7.25% G
(Prairies Sub-Total: 56.75% C, 23.5% N, 13.38% L, 6.38% G)
British Columbia: 40% C, 36% N, 15% L, 9% G

Which I think works out Nationally to be:

Conservative - 35.91%
NDP - 32.85%
Liberal - 19.82%
Bloc - 6.39%
Greens - 5.02%

(Or round off to 36-33-20-6-5)

I'll work out my seat total later and post in a new post (so this one doesn't have an edit time).

Note that Saanich-Gulf Islands is a pale shade of Green.

Did you use paint for that or do you have a template somewhere that can make those maps?

[CatoMinor]

I think the NDP will end up similar to the LibDems and under perform, but still gain a few seats