WA-SUSA: McKenna leads Gregoire, Inslee

[bgwah]

I think McKenna can win, though Meeker is probably right about Inslee. Nobody likes Gregoire, and while Inslee isn't popular or anything, the only reason he's probably polling about the same as her is a lot of people don't know who he is.

[bgwah]

McKenna has been saying and doing a lot of crazy teabaggy stuff lately that will be fun to use in TV ads against him. His moderate facade is going to go away pretty quickly once this gets going.

I actually think it's a bit strange. I suppose he's trying to rally the base and maybe scare off any serious primary challengers? But he would have easily become the Republican nominee either way, hence why I think it's strange.

[bgwah]

I'm not surprised. As others have said it has to do with name recognition. McKenna, once perhaps the most popular republican ever in Washington (he won King County with 53% of the vote in 2008) has now taken a considerably more conservative stance on many issues, especially Healthcare, which has really alienated alot of Democrats and left leaning independants from him (I was a former supporter).

I think he would have passed through the Republican primary with his previously very moderate positions just fine and would have been a shoe-in for election against pretty much any democrat. Now, not nearly as close. Voter turn out in Seattle urban areas and close suburbs (and Olympia/Bellingham) will be a key factor for a Democrat win here, which is what turned a 50-50 senate race into a 52-48 one last November.

Saying that, I think Democrats are slightly favored to win, assuming Inslee is the Democratic candidate and he makes no gaffes, since he will presumably be running on Obama's coattails, especially in urban areas.

Perhaps there's more going on behind the scenes... Reichert was polled after all. Maybe McKenna has reason to believe Reichert is a serious candidate and is adjusting accordingly.

[bgwah]

If McKenna is doing this well, imagine how much better Rossi would be doing.

Worse.

[bgwah]

I'm not surprised. As others have said it has to do with name recognition. McKenna, once perhaps the most popular republican ever in Washington (he won King County with 53% of the vote in 2008) has now taken a considerably more conservative stance on many issues, especially Healthcare, which has really alienated alot of Democrats and left leaning independants from him (I was a former supporter).

I think he would have passed through the Republican primary with his previously very moderate positions just fine and would have been a shoe-in for election against pretty much any democrat. Now, not nearly as close. Voter turn out in Seattle urban areas and close suburbs (and Olympia/Bellingham) will be a key factor for a Democrat win here, which is what turned a 50-50 senate race into a 52-48 one last November.

Saying that, I think Democrats are slightly favored to win, assuming Inslee is the Democratic candidate and he makes no gaffes, since he will presumably be running on Obama's coattails, especially in urban areas.

Perhaps there's more going on behind the scenes... Reichert was polled after all. Maybe McKenna has reason to believe Reichert is a serious candidate and is adjusting accordingly.

 If anything, Reichert isn't much more conservative than McKenna.... He wouldn't be consistently elected in the 8th if he was. I think it is possible that the Democrats make the 8th even more democratic, since they are mad that the 3rd will probably only swing to the democrats in a good year. Then Reichert might run.... but I always assumed it would be for the senate.

Which is my point--perhaps McKenna wants to establish himself as the "conservative" Republican in order to distinguish himself from the supposedly moderate Reichert.