2006 Governor's races

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My analysis on them so far, assuming best case scenarios for candidate recruitment:

AL - Safe R (although the nominee might not be Riley, let's just hope it's not Roy Moore!)
AK - Safe R unfortunately
AZ - NCF
AR - NCF (I hope Clark runs)
CA - Leans R unfortunately
CO - NCF
CT - Leans D (although better for Republicans now that they don't have that albatross Rowland around anymore)
FL - NCF
GA - Leans R
HI - NCF
ID - Safe R
IL - Leans D
IA - Leans D (if Vilsack runs again. Is he term limited?)
KS - NCF
ME - Leans D, unless Snowe runs like rumored
MD - NCF
MA - Leans D if the Democrats get a half decent candidate
MI - Safe D
MN - NCF (and I will be working extra time to remove my state of the disgusting vile scumbag that is Tim Pawlenty)
NE - Safe R
NV - NCF
NH - Really impossible to tell, depends on how popular Lynch gets
NM - Safe D
NY - Leans D
OH - NCF
OK - NCF
OR - Leans D
PA - probably better not to go here, discuss this in the million other threads on it
RI - same as MA, Leans D with a half decent candidate
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TN - Leans D (although if Frist has half a brain he'll realize he has no chance of being president and would run for this instead, but I bet he won't)
TX - Safe R
VT - Safe R unless Dean decides to make a comeback
WI - NCF
WY - NCF

[Keystone Phil]

PA - probably better not to go here, discuss this in the million other threads on it

I think that translates into "GOP pickup" 

[Sam Spade]

My analysis on them so far, assuming best case scenarios for candidate recruitment:

AL - Safe R (although the nominee might not be Riley, let's just hope it's not Roy Moore!)
AK - Safe R unfortunately
AZ - NCF
AR - NCF (I hope Clark runs)
CA - Leans R unfortunately
CO - NCF
CT - Leans D (although better for Republicans now that they don't have that albatross Rowland around anymore)
FL - NCF
GA - Leans R
HI - NCF
ID - Safe R
IL - Leans D
IA - Leans D (if Vilsack runs again. Is he term limited?)
KS - NCF
ME - Leans D, unless Snowe runs like rumored
MD - NCF
MA - Leans D if the Democrats get a half decent candidate
MI - Safe D
MN - NCF (and I will be working extra time to remove my state of the disgusting vile scumbag that is Tim Pawlenty)
NE - Safe R
NV - NCF
NH - Really impossible to tell, depends on how popular Lynch gets
NM - Safe D
NY - Leans D
OH - NCF
OK - NCF
OR - Leans D
PA - probably better not to go here, discuss this in the million other threads on it
RI - same as MA, Leans D with a half decent candidate
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TN - Leans D (although if Frist has half a brain he'll realize he has no chance of being president and would run for this instead, but I bet he won't)
TX - Safe R
VT - Safe R unless Dean decides to make a comeback
WI - NCF
WY - NCF

My quibbles:

CA - If Ahnold runs again, Ahnold will win.  This is more than lean R.
CT - They like to elect R's to state level offices.  It'll depend on the candidate the Dems put up.  Right now, leans R.
MA - They like to elect R's to the governor.  Tossup unless a good D candidate appears.
TN - If Breseden runs again (term-limits?), he would win easily.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

AL - Depends on the candidates (please, please, please not Roy Moore...) for now: NCF
AK - Should be safely GOP but an upset is possible
AZ - Not seen any approval ratings, don't know AZ politics very well.
AR - Depends on the candidate. AR is a Dfundamentally a Democratic state so a slight D lean (for now at least)
CA - Safe SdK (Schwarzeneggerpartie die Kulifoorneeyar
CO - NCF
CT - New Gov is popular. NCF
FL - Depends on candidates. NCF for now
GA - Perdue is a dead man walking. Leans D.
HI - Leans R
ID - Safe R
IL - Leans D
IA - Leans-to-Safe D (if Vilsack runs again)
KS - NCF
ME - Safe-to-Lean D
MD - NCF
MA - Leans D if the Democrats get a half decent candidate
MI - Safe D
MN - NCF
NE - Safe R
NV - NCF
NH - Who Knows?
NM - Safe D
NY - Leans D
OH - NCF
OK - Safe D
OR - Leans D
PA - probably better not to go here, discuss this in the million other threads on it
RI - same as MA, Leans D with a half decent candidate
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TN - Bredesen is very popular. Safe D unless he cocks up.
TX - Depends if Perry runs again and if he can survive the primary
VT - Safe R unless Dean decides to make a comeback
WI - NCF
WY - Safe D

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK is Safe D? Is Henry that popular?

[Sam Spade]

OK likes to elect Democrats to state offices.

He is not necessarily that popular though, from what I've heard.  A decent Republican candidate would cause him some problems.

Right now, lean D is a safe assessment.

[Sam Spade]

In TX, Perry only loses in Hutchinson decides to challenge him.

Frankly, the Democrat party is so decimated in Texas, I don't even know who they would even try and run for governor.  Are they going to try and rescusitate (sp?) John Sharp?  He's the only candidate I know of who might have a chance.

[Dave from Michigan]

Granholm is pretty safe here.  She should win around 55%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

OK is Safe D? Is Henry that popular?

His approval rating is consistantly 65% and over

[Sam Spade]

So is Bob Ehrlich in MD (approval rating @ 67% last time they polled).

However, because of where he is, it's a tossup.  The same thing should be said for OK.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So is Bob Ehrlich in MD (approval rating @ 67% last time they polled).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's just daft

[/quote]

[Q]

I think GA should indeed be leans R, or even better, NCF.  But certainly not leans D, just in general.  I think it will mostly depend on the Dem nominee.  I would think Sec. of State Cathy Cox would have a better chance than would Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor in defeating Sonny.  After the Dem defections to the GOP in the state senate in 2002, the new GOP majority stripped Taylor of most of his power, making him basically a ceremonial figure, a fact that has been well-publicized.  Also, Taylor has positioned himself as a vocal opponent of Sonny's, which at this point probably won't be a positive.  Cox, on the other hand, was reelected in 2002 with the highest margin of any statewide candidate.  She recently has had a series of consumer-protection commercials that have boosted her visibility and name recognition, and she's quite photogenic.  I think with Taylor as the Dem candidate, this is a lean R, but with Cox, it would be lean D.  My question is why they're having this battle between the GA Dems' top 2 candidates.  It's unproductive.

And for CT, where I'm living at the moment, I think it should surely be leans R at this point.  According to a recent poll, even against Sen. Chris Dodd, who is extremely popular here, Rell would still win by a few points.

[Beet]

So is Bob Ehrlich in MD (approval rating @ 67% last time they polled).

Gonzales research's June poll has him at 52%.

[MAS117]

I dont think Arkansas is clearly Republican if Clark runs.

[Defarge]

NY does not lean Dem, alot hinges on several factors.  While Pataki isn't all that well liked, he does have alot of support and could still get reelected.  If he runs for reelection it will be close between him and Spitzer.  However, if Pataki abandons the Governor's mansion to run for President, or even for the Senate, and Guiliani takes over, Guiliani wins hands down against Spitzer. 

[Akno21]

So is Bob Ehrlich in MD (approval rating @ 67% last time they polled).

Gonzales research's June poll has him at 52%.

Baltimore Sun Poll has O'Malley beating him by 10 in a hypothetical.
I'm curious how the Sun v. Ehrlich will turn out in the court of public opinion. What are the odds of the Sun endorsing Ehrlich?

[Sam Spade]

I saw the poll, but my question would be who (what polling company) does the Baltimore Sun poll?

If its the same people who write the paper, then that's not exactly a credible source.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think GA should indeed be leans R, or even better, NCF.  But certainly not leans D, just in general.  I think it will mostly depend on the Dem nominee.  I would think Sec. of State Cathy Cox would have a better chance than would Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor in defeating Sonny.  After the Dem defections to the GOP in the state senate in 2002, the new GOP majority stripped Taylor of most of his power, making him basically a ceremonial figure, a fact that has been well-publicized.  Also, Taylor has positioned himself as a vocal opponent of Sonny's, which at this point probably won't be a positive.  Cox, on the other hand, was reelected in 2002 with the highest margin of any statewide candidate.  She recently has had a series of consumer-protection commercials that have boosted her visibility and name recognition, and she's quite photogenic.  I think with Taylor as the Dem candidate, this is a lean R, but with Cox, it would be lean D.  My question is why they're having this battle between the GA Dems' top 2 candidates.  It's unproductive.

And for CT, where I'm living at the moment, I think it should surely be leans R at this point.  According to a recent poll, even against Sen. Chris Dodd, who is extremely popular here, Rell would still win by a few points.

I agree wi' that... I'm assuming that the better candidate (ie: Cox) will get picked.
Maybe not a safe assumption. Call it NCF for now.

[YRABNNRM]

Why do VT and MA have republican governors? Aren't these ament to be 'liberal' states?

Several states vote differently in state elections than in presidential elections.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Arnold doesn't run, the Dems will win.
Arnold isn't invinceable, either. He's has never run a real political campaign.

[Q]

Cathy Cox announced her candidacy for GA governor yesterday.

http://www.cathycox.com/

[phk]

If Arnold doesn't run, the Dems will win.
Arnold isn't invinceable, either. He's has never run a real political campaign.

believe me, hes the only Republican who has it "safe" here.

[Moooooo]

Baltimore Sun Poll has O'Malley beating him by 10 in a hypothetical.
I'm curious how the Sun v. Ehrlich will turn out in the court of public opinion. What are the odds of the Sun endorsing Ehrlich?

The sun will never endorse Ehrlich.  Olsker and Nitkin have been absolutley pounding him latley and they should be.  Ehrlich is a complete joke.  He will not give in to any bill that is not 100% the one he proposed.  The Baltimore Sun will end up endorsing either Duncan or O'Malley.  Although,  neither has said they will run but, everyone knows they both will.  Personally, I would like to see Congresman Dutch Ruppersberger run.  He would have a best chance at beating Ehrlich, IMO.  But he isnt going to run.

[bullmoose88]

PA probably leans democrat...it would take a good republican (Swann or Schweiker) to break the 2 term trend around these parts.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

A wee bit of inside information on the Texas race for you, spent some time in Austin during their special session for education, for good reason most republicans dont want Perry to be governor again, were not even sure that hed win, spending time in a few Senators offices  let me hear of thier meetings on this issue

I'd put a billion dollars on Kay Hutchinson for 2006