2006 Governor's races

[Sam Spade]

My analysis on them so far, assuming best case scenarios for candidate recruitment:

AL - Safe R (although the nominee might not be Riley, let's just hope it's not Roy Moore!)
AK - Safe R unfortunately
AZ - NCF
AR - NCF (I hope Clark runs)
CA - Leans R unfortunately
CO - NCF
CT - Leans D (although better for Republicans now that they don't have that albatross Rowland around anymore)
FL - NCF
GA - Leans R
HI - NCF
ID - Safe R
IL - Leans D
IA - Leans D (if Vilsack runs again. Is he term limited?)
KS - NCF
ME - Leans D, unless Snowe runs like rumored
MD - NCF
MA - Leans D if the Democrats get a half decent candidate
MI - Safe D
MN - NCF (and I will be working extra time to remove my state of the disgusting vile scumbag that is Tim Pawlenty)
NE - Safe R
NV - NCF
NH - Really impossible to tell, depends on how popular Lynch gets
NM - Safe D
NY - Leans D
OH - NCF
OK - NCF
OR - Leans D
PA - probably better not to go here, discuss this in the million other threads on it
RI - same as MA, Leans D with a half decent candidate
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TN - Leans D (although if Frist has half a brain he'll realize he has no chance of being president and would run for this instead, but I bet he won't)
TX - Safe R
VT - Safe R unless Dean decides to make a comeback
WI - NCF
WY - NCF

My quibbles:

CA - If Ahnold runs again, Ahnold will win.  This is more than lean R.
CT - They like to elect R's to state level offices.  It'll depend on the candidate the Dems put up.  Right now, leans R.
MA - They like to elect R's to the governor.  Tossup unless a good D candidate appears.
TN - If Breseden runs again (term-limits?), he would win easily.

[Sam Spade]

OK likes to elect Democrats to state offices.

He is not necessarily that popular though, from what I've heard.  A decent Republican candidate would cause him some problems.

Right now, lean D is a safe assessment.

[Sam Spade]

In TX, Perry only loses in Hutchinson decides to challenge him.

Frankly, the Democrat party is so decimated in Texas, I don't even know who they would even try and run for governor.  Are they going to try and rescusitate (sp?) John Sharp?  He's the only candidate I know of who might have a chance.

[Sam Spade]

So is Bob Ehrlich in MD (approval rating @ 67% last time they polled).

However, because of where he is, it's a tossup.  The same thing should be said for OK.

[Sam Spade]

I saw the poll, but my question would be who (what polling company) does the Baltimore Sun poll?

If its the same people who write the paper, then that's not exactly a credible source.

[Sam Spade]

A wee bit of inside information on the Texas race for you, spent some time in Austin during their special session for education, for good reason most republicans dont want Perry to be governor again, were not even sure that hed win, spending time in a few Senators offices  let me hear of thier meetings on this issue

I'd put a billion dollars on Kay Hutchinson for 2006

So would I.  I'd also imagine Henry Bonilla would then run for Senate, probably.

I personally don't like Rick Perry myself, fwiw.