2006 Governor's races

[Q]

I think GA should indeed be leans R, or even better, NCF.  But certainly not leans D, just in general.  I think it will mostly depend on the Dem nominee.  I would think Sec. of State Cathy Cox would have a better chance than would Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor in defeating Sonny.  After the Dem defections to the GOP in the state senate in 2002, the new GOP majority stripped Taylor of most of his power, making him basically a ceremonial figure, a fact that has been well-publicized.  Also, Taylor has positioned himself as a vocal opponent of Sonny's, which at this point probably won't be a positive.  Cox, on the other hand, was reelected in 2002 with the highest margin of any statewide candidate.  She recently has had a series of consumer-protection commercials that have boosted her visibility and name recognition, and she's quite photogenic.  I think with Taylor as the Dem candidate, this is a lean R, but with Cox, it would be lean D.  My question is why they're having this battle between the GA Dems' top 2 candidates.  It's unproductive.

And for CT, where I'm living at the moment, I think it should surely be leans R at this point.  According to a recent poll, even against Sen. Chris Dodd, who is extremely popular here, Rell would still win by a few points.

[Q]

Cathy Cox announced her candidacy for GA governor yesterday.

http://www.cathycox.com/

[Q]

Pasted from another board:

In your sig, you say you support Cathy Cox for Governor. Did she try to mess with evolution in schools? I remember reading about that, I think it was her, but I'm not sure.

No, there are two elected officials in Georgia with similar names: Democratic Secretary of State Cathy Cox and Republican Secretary of Education Kathy Cox.  In fact, the confusion over the names was the greatest factor that contributed to the election of Kathy in 2002 - voters simply thought she was the very popular Cathy.

It was Kathy who made a fool of herself during her anti-evolution outburst last year.  But if you ask me, I don't think it's entirely unreasonable to believe that she was conscripted to do something outrageous like that to diminish respect for the Cox name in the state, since the Republicans knew Cathy would be running for governor against Sonny.

Thanks for the clarification. Is she the favorite for the nomination at this point?

Well, unfortunately, the 2 biggest names the GA Dems have are both running for the right to challenge Sonny next year, the other being current Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor.  At least one of them will be out of a job come 2 years from now.  I'd have to say it's a tossup at this point, although I'm going to predict that Cox gets the nomination.  Taylor has the money advantage, but Cox probably has greater name recognition (although some of it negative due to the confusion outlined above) and is certainly more charismatic.  Furthermore, women make up a substantial majority of the Dem primary voters, which obviously helps Cox.  Taylor seems to be indicating that he will run a negative campaign - in the first week after Cox announed her intentions, his people began to refer to her as "liberal" - an insult, I guess.  Cox should be able to match him on fundraising, so I see no reason why she shouldn't win it.

[Q]

Has Max Cleland considered running?

lol.  max cleland is unfit for government service.  he is quite obviously a nut.

not to mention he has a huge chip on his shoulder about his war injuries.

The reason he has that chip is that, despite those injuries, his opponent successfully managed to plant the question in the minds of voters of whether Max was patriotic.

A nut?  How possibly?

He won't be running for anything in GA again because he is no longer viable statewide (although perhaps for the House at some point?).

[Q]

Georgia updates:

Current Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor's spokesman had this to say about Secretary of State Cathy Cox, against whom Taylor is running in the Democratic primary:
"Now we will see if Mark Taylor's experience, his record on schools, jobs and protecting families and his moderate views on the issues can beat a liberal like Cox in a Democratic primary."
Tactics like this should boost Cox, not bring her down.

Furthermore: "A poll conducted in October by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and WSB-TV suggests a tough re-election battle for Perdue against either Cox or Taylor.  Perdue led Taylor 44 percent to 41 percent and was tied with Cox at 41 percent each in the poll of 503 likely votes. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points."
Granted, this is an old poll, but it doesn't look good for Sonny, especially considering that Cox hadn't even announced her candidacy at that point.

[Q]

i read in an article once that Ralph Reed is planning on running for the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor so he can succeed Sonny Purdue once he completes his second and final term -assuming he gets the chance, that is.   does anyone on the inside have the inside scoop to provide meat to the bare bones i have provided here???

That's pretty much his plan, it seems.  Several obscure GOP state senators as well as the GOP state House Majority Leader have been actively discussing running for Lt. Gov. for some time now, but now that Reed is running, suddenly this week they all have disavowed not only that they are running, but even that they were ever running at any time.  So basically the GOP field has been narrowed from a wide array of candidates to Reed, state Sen. Casey Cagle, and state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine.  The nominee would be either Reed or Oxendine.

[Q]

Any ideas on the Florida race?

[Q]

Any ideas on the Florida race?

Poltics 1 says:

http://www.politics1.com/fl.htm

Thanks for the link, Jake.

There sure are a lot of candidates already announced.  Have there been any polls conducted yet, or can anyone offer predictions?


Also, how about Ohio while we're at it?

[Q]

From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Feb 16, 2005:

"According to the survey of 801 Georgia voters by Strategic Vision, a Republican firm, Perdue has a 54 percent approval rating and leads both prospective Democratic opponents — though not by the margin he might hope for.

"In the poll, conducted Feb. 11-13, Perdue holds a 50-44 lead in a hypothetical matchup with Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor. In a matchup with Secretary of State Cathy Cox, Perdue falls below the 50 percent mark, leading the Democrat 49-45."

Keep in mind that this is a very partisan Republican polling firm.  But we can draw some conclusions:
- This race will be very competitive.
- Perdue is in danger, but not chronically as some had suspected.
- Cox would do better against Perdue than would Taylor.

[Q]

Cox would be a good Governor I think.  I like her alot more than Taylor.

I'm glad you say that.

I'd be interested to see a poll regarding the Dem primary.  Given what we know as of this point, I think this race gets decided in the Dem primary, such that if Cox wins it, she'll be the next governor, but if Taylor wins, Perdue gets a second term.

You live in PA but seem to know an awful lot about GA.  Who do you think will win this thing?

[Q]

According to a new poll, Alabama Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley is the favorite for the Dem nomination for Gov (over former Gov. Don Siegelman.  Former Chief Justice Roy Moore would win the GOP nomination over current Gov. Bob Riley, although the results of such a race have tightened since previous polls were conducted.  Baxley would beat either Riley or Moore in the general election.


"In the survey's hypothetical general election pairings, Baxley drew 39 percent to Riley's 35 percent. She led Moore 44 percent to 38 percent.
"Riley registered a nine-point advantage over Siegelman, drawing 43 percent against his former rival's 34 percent. Moore held a double-digit lead -- 44 percent to 34 percent -- over Siegelman. A Register-USA poll last month also showed Siegelman trailing the two Republicans, though his margin against Moore was much smaller."

http://www.al.com/politics/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/110889473481631.xml