WA-SUSA: McKenna leads Gregoire, Inslee

[Miles]

Jay Inslee (D): 41
Rob McKenna (R): 48
Undecided: 11

Jay Inslee (D): 44
Dave Reichert (R): 46
Undecided: 10

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 40
Rob McKenna (R): 52
Undecided: 7

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 44
Dave Reichert (R): 48
Undecided: 8

Gregoire Approval: 37/61

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/8785/wagov-mckenna-r-leads-inslee-in-surveyusa-poll

[Meeker]

Before people freak out too much, Inslee's name recognition is not that great outside his district while McKenna has won statewide office twice.

[krazen1211]

Almost certainly a bunch of crap. Those crosstabs are all screwed up, and its Washington state.

Democrats will win by 2-3% as usual.

[redcommander]

Almost certainly a bunch of crap. Those crosstabs are all screwed up, and its Washington state.

Democrats will win by 2-3% as usual.

I don't think they will. When you have nearly thirty years of one party in power, enough people will be open to changing their vote. Plus Gregoire hasn't exactly been an amazingly popular figure, whereas although McKenna isn't as popular as he used to be, is still widely respected by the electorate. Also if there was any lesson out of the 2010 election, it's not to read the cross tabs of polls.

[bgwah]

I think McKenna can win, though Meeker is probably right about Inslee. Nobody likes Gregoire, and while Inslee isn't popular or anything, the only reason he's probably polling about the same as her is a lot of people don't know who he is.

[HST1948]

Is Gregoire seriously considering running again? If the nominee is Inslee I think, he has a shot at this seat, but it wont be more than a toss up throughout the campaign (see Washington 2010 Senate Election).  I do think, however, Republican's have a top tier candidate in McKenna and that with a good campaign he can win.   

[Meeker]

McKenna has been saying and doing a lot of crazy teabaggy stuff lately that will be fun to use in TV ads against him. His moderate facade is going to go away pretty quickly once this gets going.

Is Gregoire seriously considering running again? If the nominee is Inslee I think, he has a shot at this seat, but it wont be more than a toss up throughout the campaign (see Washington 2010 Senate Election).  I do think, however, Republican's have a top tier candidate in McKenna and that with a good campaign he can win.   

Nah, she's just hinting that she might so folks can't label her a lame duck in Olympia. There's no way she'll run again.

[bgwah]

McKenna has been saying and doing a lot of crazy teabaggy stuff lately that will be fun to use in TV ads against him. His moderate facade is going to go away pretty quickly once this gets going.

I actually think it's a bit strange. I suppose he's trying to rally the base and maybe scare off any serious primary challengers? But he would have easily become the Republican nominee either way, hence why I think it's strange.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Are they not considering Rossi again? Maybe somebody in the WAGOP is capable of learning a lesson.

[Seattle]

I'm not surprised. As others have said it has to do with name recognition. McKenna, once perhaps the most popular republican ever in Washington (he won King County with 53% of the vote in 2008) has now taken a considerably more conservative stance on many issues, especially Healthcare, which has really alienated alot of Democrats and left leaning independants from him (I was a former supporter).

I think he would have passed through the Republican primary with his previously very moderate positions just fine and would have been a shoe-in for election against pretty much any democrat. Now, not nearly as close. Voter turn out in Seattle urban areas and close suburbs (and Olympia/Bellingham) will be a key factor for a Democrat win here, which is what turned a 50-50 senate race into a 52-48 one last November.

Saying that, I think Democrats are slightly favored to win, assuming Inslee is the Democratic candidate and he makes no gaffes, since he will presumably be running on Obama's coattails, especially in urban areas.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

The Republicans are not considering Rossi again, I see.

[bgwah]

I'm not surprised. As others have said it has to do with name recognition. McKenna, once perhaps the most popular republican ever in Washington (he won King County with 53% of the vote in 2008) has now taken a considerably more conservative stance on many issues, especially Healthcare, which has really alienated alot of Democrats and left leaning independants from him (I was a former supporter).

I think he would have passed through the Republican primary with his previously very moderate positions just fine and would have been a shoe-in for election against pretty much any democrat. Now, not nearly as close. Voter turn out in Seattle urban areas and close suburbs (and Olympia/Bellingham) will be a key factor for a Democrat win here, which is what turned a 50-50 senate race into a 52-48 one last November.

Saying that, I think Democrats are slightly favored to win, assuming Inslee is the Democratic candidate and he makes no gaffes, since he will presumably be running on Obama's coattails, especially in urban areas.

Perhaps there's more going on behind the scenes... Reichert was polled after all. Maybe McKenna has reason to believe Reichert is a serious candidate and is adjusting accordingly.

[Brittain33]

If McKenna is doing this well, imagine how much better Rossi would be doing.

[ZuWo]

The Republicans are not considering Rossi again, I see.

It would probably prove to be VERY hard to convince Rossi to run for statewide office again ...

[bgwah]

If McKenna is doing this well, imagine how much better Rossi would be doing.

Worse.

[Napoleon]

Inslee just needs to tie McKenna to Walker, Kasich, Scott and Co. That will probably be enough to win in such a Democratic state in a presidential year.

[Seattle]

I'm not surprised. As others have said it has to do with name recognition. McKenna, once perhaps the most popular republican ever in Washington (he won King County with 53% of the vote in 2008) has now taken a considerably more conservative stance on many issues, especially Healthcare, which has really alienated alot of Democrats and left leaning independants from him (I was a former supporter).

I think he would have passed through the Republican primary with his previously very moderate positions just fine and would have been a shoe-in for election against pretty much any democrat. Now, not nearly as close. Voter turn out in Seattle urban areas and close suburbs (and Olympia/Bellingham) will be a key factor for a Democrat win here, which is what turned a 50-50 senate race into a 52-48 one last November.

Saying that, I think Democrats are slightly favored to win, assuming Inslee is the Democratic candidate and he makes no gaffes, since he will presumably be running on Obama's coattails, especially in urban areas.

Perhaps there's more going on behind the scenes... Reichert was polled after all. Maybe McKenna has reason to believe Reichert is a serious candidate and is adjusting accordingly.

If anything, Reichert isn't much more conservative than McKenna.... He wouldn't be consistently elected in the 8th if he was. I think it is possible that the Democrats make the 8th even more democratic, since they are mad that the 3rd will probably only swing to the democrats in a good year. Then Reichert might run.... but I always assumed it would be for the senate.

[bgwah]

I'm not surprised. As others have said it has to do with name recognition. McKenna, once perhaps the most popular republican ever in Washington (he won King County with 53% of the vote in 2008) has now taken a considerably more conservative stance on many issues, especially Healthcare, which has really alienated alot of Democrats and left leaning independants from him (I was a former supporter).

I think he would have passed through the Republican primary with his previously very moderate positions just fine and would have been a shoe-in for election against pretty much any democrat. Now, not nearly as close. Voter turn out in Seattle urban areas and close suburbs (and Olympia/Bellingham) will be a key factor for a Democrat win here, which is what turned a 50-50 senate race into a 52-48 one last November.

Saying that, I think Democrats are slightly favored to win, assuming Inslee is the Democratic candidate and he makes no gaffes, since he will presumably be running on Obama's coattails, especially in urban areas.

Perhaps there's more going on behind the scenes... Reichert was polled after all. Maybe McKenna has reason to believe Reichert is a serious candidate and is adjusting accordingly.

 If anything, Reichert isn't much more conservative than McKenna.... He wouldn't be consistently elected in the 8th if he was. I think it is possible that the Democrats make the 8th even more democratic, since they are mad that the 3rd will probably only swing to the democrats in a good year. Then Reichert might run.... but I always assumed it would be for the senate.

Which is my point--perhaps McKenna wants to establish himself as the "conservative" Republican in order to distinguish himself from the supposedly moderate Reichert.

[Seattle]

Lol.... duh. I read your post wrong....

Still, I'm not convinced that Reichert would be able to win a primary over McKenna - even if McKenna was more moderate than him.

It sure will be interesting to see the polls later in the summer when Gregoire announces her retirement.