Guatemala 2011 presidential election

[big bad fab]

Well... I'm not giving anything here...

Has anybody reliable and complete results ?
And a piece of analysis on how votes will transfer from the first to the second round ?
Are polls reliable (in 2007, Perez Molina was ahead in the last polls, just to lose to Colom) ?

Thanks in advance.

[Hash]

First round results are basically

Nutjob murderer general (Perez Molina) 36.06
crazy right-wing tycoon-turned insane populist (Manuel Baldizón) 23.37
Swiss-born right-wing academic of some sort educated in US (Eduardo Suger) 16.26
some dude named Mario Estrada who is probably a right-wing crook 8.62
some dude whose fanclub made a saint-like Wikipedia page for him (Harold Caballeros) 6.09
Rigoberta Menchú 3.28

Suger's vote is expected to transfer to Perez Molina, who remains the favourite. For reminders, Perez Molina is the army general who probably had lots of people killed in the 80s and who is currently a tough law and order conservative who wants to use the army to kill the druggies.

Baldizon is a crazy right-wing tycoon turned into a populist who talks about social programs, promises that Guatemala will qualify for the FIFA World Cup, wants executions televised live and so forth. There is a chance he's linked to the cartels. He took most of the left-wing vote, given that in legislative elections the governing left-wing UNE-GANA took 22.6 and his outfit only 8.9.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think I like this election much.

[big bad fab]

Will Perez Molina have a parliamentarian majority or at least a plurality ?

It will be interesting to see, if elected, which path he'll take.
Mexico, Colombia and Peru have given us many surprises, in one direction or the other.

Rigoberta Menchu has gained ground: something like 0.2%, I guess

[redcommander]

What is up with the "colorful" list of candidates and the lack of a left wing option for voters?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't think I like this election much.

Clealry.

[Bacon King]

What is up with the "colorful" list of candidates

Welcome to Latin American elections!

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Rigoberta Menchú was the leftist in the race.

[Bacon King]

Also, on a hilarious note, Baldizón has publicly declared that Guatemala will win the World Cup if he's elected.

[redcommander]

What is up with the "colorful" list of candidates

Welcome to Latin American elections!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Rigoberta Menchú was the leftist in the race.

How did he  up so badly to not make it to the runoff?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is up with the "colorful" list of candidates

Welcome to Latin American elections!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Rigoberta Menchú was the leftist in the race.

How did he  up so badly to not make it to the runoff?

Because the country is a sh*thole, maybe ?

[redcommander]

What is up with the "colorful" list of candidates

Welcome to Latin American elections!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Rigoberta Menchú was the leftist in the race.

How did he  up so badly to not make it to the runoff?

Because the country is a sh*thole, maybe ?

Wouldn't that benefit the left then if so many people are in poverty there? I mean is a former Junta general or Crazed businessman really going to be able to turn things around there?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is up with the "colorful" list of candidates

Welcome to Latin American elections!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Rigoberta Menchú was the leftist in the race.

How did he  up so badly to not make it to the runoff?

Because the country is a sh*thole, maybe ?

Wouldn't that benefit the left then if so many people are in poverty there? I mean is a former Junta general or Crazed businessman really going to be able to turn things around there?

Poor people = ignorant people, ignorant people = people more likely to vote for a stupid populist fraud. Add to that the awfully high crime rate, and you have all the ingredient for the "iron fist" lovefest.

[Bacon King]

I don't know too much about Guatemala specifically, but I'd assume the 36-year civil war continues to carry a lot of stigma in the country today. Menchú's identity is strongly tied to this conflict, of course; she earned her infamy (and Nobel Peace Prize) after publishing the book that brought widespread international attention to the Guatemalan Civil War.

Not even twenty years ago, villagers in this country were advised to tip off the local paramilitary death squad to any "suspected leftists" they knew (and today, only a handful of these murderers have so far been punished). Given this background I'm not surprised to see the woman who was essentially the public face for the anti-government forces receiving such little support.

[big bad fab]

Because the country is a sh*thole, maybe ?

Sometimes, you should calm down and not JUDGE immediately and definitely .
Or not judge at all, BTW .

Every country is interesting and there are not "bad" peoples and "good" peoples.
All Venezuelans aren't crap because of Chavez.
All Italians aren't crap because of Berlusconi.
etc.

Sorry, I'm not adding value here, just that, sometimes, you tend to be a bit of a political Judge Dredd .
No offense.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Because the country is a sh*thole, maybe ?

Sometimes, you should calm down and not JUDGE immediately and definitely .
Or not judge at all, BTW .

Every country is interesting and there are not "bad" peoples and "good" peoples.
All Venezuelans aren't crap because of Chavez.
All Italians aren't crap because of Berlusconi.
etc.

Sorry, I'm not adding value here, just that, sometimes, you tend to be a bit of a political Judge Dredd .
No offense.

Oh, come on !
Did you have a look at the poverty, inequality and crime statistics ? This is what usually makes a country a sh*thole. All countries that vote for the right aren't sh*tholes (of course). France, Germany, Sweden, Denmark which was right-wing until yesterday are all great countries (even though all have their problems). Now, it's pretty evident that Guatemala is a depressing failed State, and that such a political situation doesn't lead to a healthy political game.

[Хahar 🤔]

What is up with the "colorful" list of candidates

Welcome to Latin American elections!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Rigoberta Menchú was the leftist in the race.

How did he  up so badly to not make it to the runoff?

She, not he. Rigoberta Menchú is a famous indigenous rights activist; she won the Nobel Prize two decades ago. She wasn't the candidate of the ruling leftish government.

[Hash]

People, people, calm down. The incumbent president is actually leftie, and the only reason why there was no strong leftie was because his ex-wife was barred from running because the constitution prevents relatives of the prez from running (divorcing him did not help). So instead of calling the country a "sh**thole", which it probably is, it might also help to look at the situation calmly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

People, people, calm down. The incumbent president is actually leftie, and the only reason why there was no strong leftie was because his ex-wife was barred from running because the constitution prevents relatives of the prez from running (divorcing him did not help). So instead of calling the country a "sh**thole", which it probably is, it might also help to look at the situation calmly.

So where's the problem ?

[Hash]

People, people, calm down. The incumbent president is actually leftie, and the only reason why there was no strong leftie was because his ex-wife was barred from running because the constitution prevents relatives of the prez from running (divorcing him did not help). So instead of calling the country a "sh**thole", which it probably is, it might also help to look at the situation calmly.

So where's the problem ?

I meant that it's terribly easy to call a place a sh**thole because of its politics - I do it all the time - but in reality, it's a bad idea. It shows both terrible hackishness and it's not a good way to analyze and compare electoral politics. If you can't analyze something in politics without resorting to calling things 'sh**tholes' or people 'idiots', then, sadly, you shouldn't be analyzing politics.

[Antonio the Sixth]

People, people, calm down. The incumbent president is actually leftie, and the only reason why there was no strong leftie was because his ex-wife was barred from running because the constitution prevents relatives of the prez from running (divorcing him did not help). So instead of calling the country a "sh**thole", which it probably is, it might also help to look at the situation calmly.

So where's the problem ?

I meant that it's terribly easy to call a place a sh**thole because of its politics - I do it all the time - but in reality, it's a bad idea. It shows both terrible hackishness and it's not a good way to analyze and compare electoral politics. If you can't analyze something in politics without resorting to calling things 'sh**tholes' or people 'idiots', then, sadly, you shouldn't be analyzing politics.

I just made a quick comment, which was never supposed to be a detailed analysis of the country, of which I only have a very basic knowledge of this country - and never intended to sum up all the country's political and social history in one word. Now, I have the impression you don't really disagree with me about the comment itself, so there's no problem really.

Of course I'm glad to read your more developped, and more intelligent analyses, so to learn something more.

[big bad fab]

People, people, calm down. The incumbent president is actually leftie, and the only reason why there was no strong leftie was because his ex-wife was barred from running because the constitution prevents relatives of the prez from running (divorcing him did not help). So instead of calling the country a "sh**thole", which it probably is, it might also help to look at the situation calmly.

So where's the problem ?

I meant that it's terribly easy to call a place a sh**thole because of its politics - I do it all the time - but in reality, it's a bad idea. It shows both terrible hackishness and it's not a good way to analyze and compare electoral politics. If you can't analyze something in politics without resorting to calling things 'sh**tholes' or people 'idiots', then, sadly, you shouldn't be analyzing politics.

I just made a quick comment, which was never supposed to be a detailed analysis of the country, of which I only have a very basic knowledge of this country - and never intended to sum up all the country's political and social history in one word. Now, I have the impression you don't really disagree with me about the comment itself, so there's no problem really.

Of course I'm glad to read your more developped, and more intelligent analyses, so to learn something more.

I'm too lazy to write what Gael writes so well: just read him and you understand what I wanted to say, Antonio.

The "left" killed itself by trying to have current president's wife as a candidate and, then trying to ensure the trick by divorcing just for that purpose...
Sure, some of the "rightist" candidates are even worse, but this "centre-left" party wasn't very clever.

What is interesting in this f***ing country () is that we'll see if Perez Molina is able to evolve à la Santos or, in a way, to prove wrong all the PC pundits, as Humala (on the other side) seems to be doing in Peru, and to be far more moderate than anticipated.

I really have no clue, but it'll be interesting to follow this.

And, with 14m people, Guatemala is a pretty damn important and understimated sh**thole .

[Antonio the Sixth]

No, I think you're the one who hasn't understood what I say, actually.

[minionofmidas]

So what did the government party do after having their candidate excluded? Did they endorse a different candidate, or call for a blank vote, or what?

And to keep the sh!thole analogy going, sh!thole countries are sh!thole countries because asshole countries sh!t into them. In this case the US, in others, the European countries listed above.

[Bacon King]

So what did the government party do after having their candidate excluded? Did they endorse a different candidate, or call for a blank vote, or what?

After looking around the internet, I can't find much at all regarding UNE's actions for this election since the incumbent's (ex-)wife was barred from running. It would probably help if their official party website didn't have its account suspended (though in my search, something I did find that was interesting is the fact that the Constitution also prohibits people who seize power in a coup from being elected president; this restriction has been been conveniently ignored before and is conveniently ignored now).

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