Northern Ireland 2011

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General rumours/reports of the UUP performing poorly.

Rumour that Mr Robinson may top the poll in Belfast East.

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Anno Lo (Alliance) may top poll in Belfast South.

SF reported to be outdoing SDLP in South Down and heavily so in Fermanagh-S Tyrone.

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Dawn Purvis (i-E Belfast) not expected to make it.

Jim Allister (TUV) said to be likely to take a seat in Antrim N.

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UUP struggling all over - might not take a seat in North Down at all.

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David McClarty (i, Deselected UUP) might take a seat at UUP expense in Derry East, also leaving the UUP seatless there.

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Alliance looking at a gain in East Belfast.

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SF look like they may gain a seat in Upper Bann from the UUP.

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Suggested that more than a few SF transfers in West Belfast are going to the DUP rather than SDLP.

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...And reports of vice-versa happening in West Tyrone (!)

Will have to be seen in the results to be believed, for me.

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UUP's seat in South Down in danger.

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Apparently UKIP have done well in South Down.

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Possibility of SF gain in North Belfast.

UUP struggling in South Belfast, possible DUP gain.
SDLP second seat might be in danger there as well.

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BBC report that count staff in Fermanagh have requested hairdryers as quite a few ballots appear to have somehow gotten wet.

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4th SF seat in Mid Ulster a possibility, likely to be competing with UUP and TUV for the final seat.

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Apparently UKIP have done well in South Down.

Wait, South Down? Wtf? Star candidate?

Nope. Same candidate as last time (2.7% in 2007).
Possibly benefitting from the UUP's apparent general downturn.

Listening to the BBC NI livestream. Mostly because I just happen to find Ulster accents quite beautiful.

We are a lovely sounding lot

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Say 'punk'.

Have to go now, would've expected substantially more progress than this so far.

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First Declaration in NI today...

First Count in Newry & Armagh


Should be a fairly straightforward 3 SF, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP

Rather poor vote split by SF, but one presumes the Murphy surplus will wind it's way to Brady over the coming counts.

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First count declared in Upper Bann.

SF's John O'Dowd elected, but I haven't found the numbers yet.

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SF look well placed to gain a second seat.
Delores Kelly in danger of losing the SDLP seat.
Definitely 1 UUP seat, whether there's a second depends on the lower candidates not displayed.

I'll have to keep looking.

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Derry East - First Count

Quota: 4,961

6,319 Gregory Campbell* (DUP)
4,681 Cathal Ó hOisín (SF)
3,855 George Robinson* (DUP)
3,003 David McClarty* (i)
2,967 John Dallat* (SDLP)
2,639 Bernadette Archibald (SF)
2,633 Adrian McQuillan* (DUP)
2,222 Thomas Joseph Conway (SDLP)
1,905 Barney Fitzpatrick (Alliance)
1,568 Boyd Douglas (TUV)
1,472 Lesley Macaulay (UUP)
1,458 David Harding (UUP)


Campbell (DUP) elected.
Count 2 is the distribution of his surplus.


Looks like McClarty (deselected former UUP MLA) will hold his seat.
The UUP decision to run 2 candidates continues to boggle.

The first 5 candidates here should be fine, that last seat will presumably be DUP v UUP, to be determined by TUV and Alliance transfers.

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Lagan Valley - First Count

Turnout: 52.4%
Quota: 5,070

7,329 Edwin Poots (DUP)
5,771 Basil McCrea (UUP)
4,389 Trevor Lunn (Alliance)
4,352 Paul Givan (DUP)
4,263 Jonathan Craig (DUP)
2,910 Brenda Hale (DUP)
2,165 Pat Catney (SDLP)   
1,482 Mark Hill (UUP) 
1,203 Mary-Kate Quinn (SF)     
1,031 Lyle Rea (TUV) 
   592 Conor Quinn (Green)

Poots (DUP) and McCrea (UUP) elected.
Count 2 is the Poots surplus distribution.


Looks like as expected the DUP will gain the outgoing SF seat here - mostly because of a boundary change.

Catney (SDLP) might be able to narrow that gap on Hale (DUP) for the last seat, but the gap and nature of transfers to come means he'd need to be more than lucky to overturn the difference.

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South Down - First Count

Quota: 5,961

8,506 Margaret Ritchie* (SDLP)
5,955 Caitríona Ruane* (SF)
5,200 Jim Wells* (DUP)
4,409 John McCallister* (UUP)
3,882 Willie Clarke* (SF)
3,758 Karen McKevitt (SDLP)
3,050 Naomi Bailie (SF)
2,663 Eamonn O'Neill (SDLP)
2,332 Henry Reilly (UKIP)
1,107 Cadogan Enright (Green)
   864 David Griffin (Alliance)

Ritchie (SDLP leader) elected.
Count 2 is the distribution of her surplus.

Should be fairly straightforwardly 2 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP.

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Is there anywhere with a sensible presentation of the results?  I'm sure last time I used RTE, who understand STV, but their link seems to go to the BBC.

Nevermind a sensible presentation, any presentation would be nice.

BBC online seem unaware of any declarations so far.
UTV online have only provided a couple of screenshots, like I've posted.

None of the northern newspaper sites have any much coverage (BelTel have nothing. The NewsLetter have a pretty poor live blog.)

None of the radio stations ahve anything much.

Slugger has a live blog, but no complete details of count declarations. Looks like the liveblog is ending now in a few minutes anyway.

None of the Republic's media have substantial detals on numbers.

Which leaves whatever one can pick up from twitter.

I'm pulling the above numbers from listening in on BBC Radio Ulster (but it's quite rushed, so I may have some errors).

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Farce continues...

Foyle going to recount - initial count disagreed with earlier count on ballots.

Fermanagh-South Tyrone count delayed because one of the tables holding votes collapsed sending ballots everywhere.

Box mix up in Antrim North between referendum and Assembly votes has delayed things there as well.