Which state do you think would vote Democratic first: Arizona or Georgia?

[greenforest32]

There's a lot of focus on Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina trending and voting Democratic with talk of Arizona and Georgia doing the same in the future particularly because of shifting demographics. But of those two states, which do you think would happen first?

Georgia is R+6 and Arizona is R+7 for 2008/2012 PVI but last election's trends were opposite for the two: Arizona went from R+6 in 2004/2008 PVI to R+7 in 2008/2012 PVI while Georgia went from R+7 in 2004/2008 PVI to R+6 in 2008/2012 PVI.

On one hand Georgia has more ethnic minorities than Arizona (though both states are under 60% non-hispanic white as of 2012) and those minorities are less Republican due to a higher percentage of blacks (GA is ~31% black vs AZ's ~4.5%) with blacks generally voting at higher rates than Hispanics but on the other hand Arizona whites are less Republican than Georgia's. An equal weighting for these two?

Both states also have population growth above the national average but the demographics of that in-migration are probably different (more older white retirees move to Arizona while more minorities move to Georgia?). This one could make you think lean Georgia but also consider that, among all the states, Arizona has the largest white vs. non-white gap between 65+ year-olds and under 18 year-olds which could mean faster change for Arizona as it has more seniors (14.8% of its population) than Georgia (11.5% of its population)?



And what about religion? I don't really know how to weight for that but that can be something to consider when comparing a southwest state vs a state in the deep south. Arizona is less religious overall with less (white) baptists than Georgia.

Before Nov 2012, I was going to guess Arizona for this question because I was expecting the state to swing to Obama compared to 2008 but, as we saw, that didn't happen (though AZ Hispanics swung heavily to Obama) and now I'm leaning towards Georgia. What do you think?

[illegaloperation]

The best time to answer this question is after the 2014 Georgia Senate election.

[bballrox4717]

I think Arizona would flip first, but Georgia would become more reliably Democratic if it flipped due to it's relative in-elasticity.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm leaning on Arizona, as convincing as it is that Georgia might become more blue, Arizona not only has Hispanics (which are very elastic voters) but has some elastic whites too. However most whites this time whites swung heavily Romney in Arizona. If it stays that way, it could be either one of the states. Georgia whites and blacks are both very inelastic, and that's why I think it will hold for a while as a somewhat strong republican state unless the state suddenly becomes much less religious and white, and much more black, secular, and Latino (it could be now).

That's why I chose Arizona, its more of swingy state that can go democratic in the right certain circumstances, but not 2012 circumstances, Arizona democrats will have to lower the republican margin among whites If they want to win. Georgia, if it really is moving in a democratic direction, will be a very slow transformation that will take time to make it a battleground state. So for right now I choose Arizona with the right circumstances.

[barfbag]

Those trends are very slow and certainly not guaranteed to change. If I had a gun to my head I would say Arizona. I wouldn't be celebrating now for a victory in either place though. They're comparable to states like New Jersey and Michigan on the other side when averaging numbers.

[eric82oslo]

Demographic change is happening much, much faster in Arizona than in Georgia. While black turnout is not unlikely to be somewhat depressed in Georgia post-Obama, the Hispanic turnout will eventually increase across the nation as latinos age (older voters turn out at much higher rates). In no other state the Hispanic population is increasing faster than in Arizona, not even in Texas or Nevada. (At least that was the situation in the last decade, although their new, stricter policies might have changed the situation somewhat.) Another thing that will drive Hispanic turnout in 2016 and beyond is candidates more suited to appeal to this demographic, either by being latinos themselves (Rubio, Martinez, Castro, Cruz, Menendez, Solis), by having a multiracial family (Jeb Bush) or just by having a strong appeal towards latinos (Hillary). Also Arizona is socially liberal/libertarian and less religious than the average state.

By 2016, Arizona will be more likely than Georgia to vote Democratic because of the surging Hispanic citizen population. By 2020 and 2024, Arizona will be much more likely. By 2024, only a very weak Democratic candidate will be able to lose the popular vote in Arizona I think. Arizona will be the new Nevada eventually. Arizona will be one of the most important battleground states in 2016 and 2020 I'm sure. Georgia's direction will be slower and much more uncertain. Hillary will probably/possibly make Georgia a battleground in 2016, but only if she can win convincingly/in a landslide. She also has the strenght of being a regional/"Southern" candidate in many people's eyes, although she's originally from Illinois and having represented New York in Congress.

[barfbag]

Demographic change is happening much, much faster in Arizona than in Georgia. While black turnout is not unlikely to be somewhat depressed in Georgia post-Obama, the Hispanic turnout will eventually increase across the nation as latinos age (older voters turn out at much higher rates). In no other state the Hispanic population is increasing faster than in Arizona, not even in Texas or Nevada. (At least that was the situation in the last decade, although their new, stricter policies might have changed the situation somewhat.) Another thing that will drive Hispanic turnout in 2016 and beyond is candidates more suited to appeal to this demographic, either by being latinos themselves (Rubio, Martinez, Castro, Cruz, Menendez, Solis), by having a multiracial family (Jeb Bush) or just by having a strong appeal towards latinos (Hillary). Also Arizona is socially liberal/libertarian and less religious than the average state.

By 2016, Arizona will be more likely than Georgia to vote Democratic because of the surging Hispanic citizen population. By 2020 and 2024, Arizona will be much more likely. By 2024, only a very weak Democratic candidate will be able to lose the popular vote in Arizona I think. Arizona will be the new Nevada eventually. Arizona will be one of the most important battleground states in 2016 and 2020 I'm sure. Georgia's direction will be slower and much more uncertain. Hillary will probably/possibly make Georgia a battleground in 2016, but only if she can win convincingly/in a landslide. She also has the strenght of being a regional/"Southern" candidate in many people's eyes, although she's originally from Illinois and having represented New York in Congress.

This much I can agree with but for the states to change parties, trends would have to continue and the Republican's inability to reach out to minorities would have to continue. I don't think Hillary Clinton will be hurt in the south from representing a northern state with the exception of Arkansas which she abandoned as too good for. There could be a backlash there, but she'll still get at least 34%. Arkansas isn't the point here. Bottom line is that Obama didn't win either Georgia or Arizona in 2008 and I don't see Clinton winning by quite the same national margin. Even without McCain, I think Obama would've come up a few points short in Arizona. Light redness is nothing new to the state either.

[DC Al Fine]

And what about religion? I don't really know how to weight for that but that can be something to consider when comparing a southwest state vs a state in the deep south. Arizona is less religious overall with less (white) baptists than Georgia.

Arizona has Mormons who presumably came out in full force for Romney. Perhaps it's less R than we thought. I'd say Arizona simply because Georgia has a much higher floor for the GOP in it's white evangelical voters.

[barfbag]

What percentage of Arizona voters were Mormon and how does it rank compared to other states? I doubt they'll be going away anytime soon.

[greenforest32]

Arizona may be more Mormon than a lot of eastern and southern states but it's still a small percentage overall, around 5% of the state population: http://www.gallup.com/poll/122075/Religious-Identity-States-Differ-Widely.aspx#2

Only Utah and Idaho (and maybe Wyoming/Nevada) hit double-digit percentages for Mormon affiliation.

---

One thing that would make future projections better would be if we had more data in the form of exit polls. As you may have heard, only 31 states had exit polls in 2012 and, unbelievably, Georgia was one of the 19 omitted last year. I was looking at the shares of the states' voting electorates that are white vs nonwhite and Georgia's is a lot less white than Arizona's, probably because of the aforementioned voting differences between blacks and hispanics.

2004 exit poll: GA = 70% white/30% non-white, AZ = 79% white/21% non-white
2008 exit poll: GA = 65% white/35% non-white, AZ = 75% white/25% non-white
2012 exit poll: GA = No data,                               AZ = 74% white/26% non-white

If Georgia keeps trending at the 2004-2008 pace then it's definitely gonna flip by 2020 but then if Democrats can keep the 2012 margin with AZ hispanics and improve a bit with whites there, that's getting pretty close by 2016.

Almost looks like they could flip in the same cycle.

[barfbag]

The decline of the white vote is a big problem in this country and it's looking like the GOP will either have to outdo Democrats with rhetoric or find another way to win.

[DS0816]

Both Arizona and Georgia can get flipped to the Democratic column in the same election cycle.

Dating back to 1988 (because 1980 and 1984 are not applicable), these two states have been fairly closely connected with each other in their margins.

This is the case since 1996 with both Virginia and Colorado…and they became critical to the battleground electoral map of Election 2008. (Since 1996, they have been no greater than 3.53% in spread from each other.)

Since 1988, with cycles numbering seven, Arizona and Georgia's average margins spread have been 3.27%.

1988
ARIZONA R+21.21
GEORGIA R+20.25
(Spread:  0.96%)

1992
ARIZONA R+1.95
GEORGIA D+0.59 — Pickup
(Spread:  2.54%)

1996
ARIZONA D+2.23 — Pickup
GEORGIA R+1.17 — Pickup
(Spread:  3.40%)

2000
ARIZONA R+6.28 — Pickup
GEORGIA R+11.69
(Spread:  5.41%)

2004
ARIZONA R+10.47
GEORGIA R+16.60
(Spread:  6.13%)

2008
ARIZONA R+8.48
GEORGIA R+5.20
(Spread:  3.28%)

2012
ARIZONA R+9.03
GEORGIA R+7.80
(Spread:  1.23%)


SPREADS
0.96%
2.54%
3.40%
5.41%
6.13%
3.28%
+ 1.23%

Total: 22.95 / 7 = 3.27%

[DS0816]

I voted for … "Both would flip together in the same election."

I would have preferred that greenforest32's option had read, ""Both could/would flip together in the same election."

[HAnnA MArin County]

I don't think Hillary Clinton will be hurt in the south from representing a northern state with the exception of Arkansas which she abandoned as too good for.

Arkansas was her best state during the primaries, so I highly doubt that the voters there think she left them because she was "too good for them." They just named the Little Rock National Airport in honor of her and Bill. Some even argue that her not being the nominee was the reason why Arkansas swung so heavily Republican in 2008.

As per religion, here is what I was able to find per The Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA):

ARIZONA

• 62.77% Unclaimed/Not Religious

• 14.55% Catholic
• 11.93% Evangelical Protestant
• 6.18% Mormon
• 2.69% Mainline Protestant
• 0.19% Black Protestant

GEORGIA
• 49.17% Unclaimed/Not Religious

• 29.45% Evangelical Protestant
• 8.83% Mainline Protestant
• 6.16% Catholic
• 3.94% Black Protestant
• 0.81% Mormon

Also, in terms of veterans, Arizona has 11.02% whereas Georgia's is 9.43% statewide among the total adult (18+) civilian population.

[barfbag]

I don't think Hillary Clinton will be hurt in the south from representing a northern state with the exception of Arkansas which she abandoned as too good for.

Arkansas was her best state during the primaries, so I highly doubt that the voters there think she left them because she was "too good for them." They just named the Little Rock National Airport in honor of her and Bill. Some even argue that her not being the nominee was the reason why Arkansas swung so heavily Republican in 2008.

As per religion, here is what I was able to find per The Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA):

ARIZONA

• 62.77% Unclaimed/Not Religious

• 14.55% Catholic
• 11.93% Evangelical Protestant
• 6.18% Mormon
• 2.69% Mainline Protestant
• 0.19% Black Protestant

GEORGIA
• 49.17% Unclaimed/Not Religious

• 29.45% Evangelical Protestant
• 8.83% Mainline Protestant
• 6.16% Catholic
• 3.94% Black Protestant
• 0.81% Mormon

Also, in terms of veterans, Arizona has 11.02% whereas Georgia's is 9.43% statewide among the total adult (18+) civilian population.

She did very well amongst Democrats. She will have to compete for votes from Independents and Republicans too in the general election. The reason Arkansas swung so heavily Republican in 2008 was due to trends and Obama being a terrible candidate for such states.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Demographic change would probably indicate Arizona, but who the hell knows?  Neither is likely to flip anytime soon, and they both seem to be more Republican than circumstances would indicate.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The decline of the white vote is a big problem in this country

..................

[ElectionsGuy]

The decline of the white vote is a big problem in this country

..................

I'm pretty sure he meant for the republican party, not that it's actually a problem.

[TJ in Oregon]

The clear answer here is Georgia. The GOP has no hope really of making inroads in the black vote, which is growing in Georgia at the expense of a lack of growth in the white population, which most of the growth of is in the metro Atlanta area where it cannot be taken for granted they're voting Republican.

As for Arizona, despite the Hispanic growth, the statewide totals haven't shown a trend in the Democratic direction. Arizona is about 20% whiter than Georgia and Hispanics aren't nearly as Democratic as blacks. While the whites in Arizona may not be as partisan, the rest of the statistics point strongly toward Georgia going Democatic first.

[Suburbia]

Georgia first. Due to the fact that some Democrats are competitive there.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The decline of the white vote is a big problem in this country

..................

Why do you get whenever anybody brings up race in any context on this board? Don't act like you don't.

[henster]

AZ is a lot less religious and racially polarized than Georgia. Plus it has a libertarian streak like Colorado so it can be a pretty socially liberal state. Gay marriage and pot could pass in AZ if it was a referendum, not so much in GA.

[5280]

Georgia

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ by far because it is part of southwest. But it wont be 2016, McCain's on ballot.

[MATTROSE94]

AZ is a lot less religious and racially polarized than Georgia. Plus it has a libertarian streak like Colorado so it can be a pretty socially liberal state. Gay marriage and pot could pass in AZ if it was a referendum, not so much in GA.

I might be wrong, but didn't Doug Ducy's anti-gay rights position help him to a point in the Arizona Gubernatorial election last year?