Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012

[Mr.Phips]

If these chambers survived 2010, I dont think any of them will get more Republican in 2010.  The 2010 elections basically reduced Democrats to inner city liberal and black majority districts in the South. 

[Mr.Phips]

If these chambers survived 2010, I dont think any of them will get more Republican in 2010.  The 2010 elections basically reduced Democrats to inner city liberal and black majority districts in the South.  

Consider though that for many of these states, this is the first time the Republicans have control over redistricting.

There are hardly any Democrats left to redistrict away.  Most of the remaining Democratic seats are either VRA protected or super Democratic inner city seats that cant really be messed with without causing trouble for Republicans in adjacent districts. 

[Mr.Phips]

If these chambers survived 2010, I dont think any of them will get more Republican in 2010.  The 2010 elections basically reduced Democrats to inner city liberal and black majority districts in the South. 

You're somewhat like a parrot, you've picked up one phrase and are just repeating it everywhere for the sake of making noise. Not once has this been an intelligent, compelling argument. It is especially off putting because even recent history shows a 2006 followed by a 2008. There are seats that fell in 1994 that weren't close in 2010. There were seats that fell in 2010 that weren't close in 1994, before 1994, or after 1994. Things. Change. Frequently. Accept it and start thinking about 2012 instead of misreading 2010.

There simply are not any seats left for Republicans to pick up.  They picked up everything they possibly could in 2010 and then some.  You dont gain almost 700 seats and go on to pick up more seats in the next election. 

[Mr.Phips]

Not many--most are either solidly Democratic and will stay that way (WV, AR) or the reverse (OK, FL, etc)

If anything, the Democrats will likely make big gains in NC, TX, and FL.

Mississippi will be the only one the Dems lose.

Yes I have a feeling NC could flip back in 2012.  Note that the NC constitution forbids unnecessary county splits in state legislative districts, so the legislature can't really be gerrymandered.  If FL gets successfully de-gerrymandered, then there should be several Dem pickups, but not nearly enough for a majority.

There will probably be pretty big gains for Democrats in the Texas House, as Democrats lost every possible district there and even had some party switches from districts that Republicans will never hold. 

There should be a bit of a snapback to Democrats in Georgia too with Obama leading the ticket. 

[Mr.Phips]

Not many--most are either solidly Democratic and will stay that way (WV, AR) or the reverse (OK, FL, etc)

If anything, the Democrats will likely make big gains in NC, TX, and FL.

Mississippi will be the only one the Dems lose.

Yes I have a feeling NC could flip back in 2012.  Note that the NC constitution forbids unnecessary county splits in state legislative districts, so the legislature can't really be gerrymandered.  If FL gets successfully de-gerrymandered, then there should be several Dem pickups, but not nearly enough for a majority.

There will probably be pretty big gains for Democrats in the Texas House, as Democrats lost every possible district there and even had some party switches from districts that Republicans will never hold. 

There should be a bit of a snapback to Democrats in Georgia too with Obama leading the ticket. 

GA and TX are both going to be gerrymandered to kingdom come, so much so that I'm not convinced Dems can make significant gains.  TX is probably a lost cause this decade.  GA Dems have some hope of reclaiming the legislature in the long term, but that would be around 2016-20 if GA follows VA and NC to the left. 

Texas and Georgia already are heavily gerrymandered for Republicans.  So is South Carolina. 

[Mr.Phips]

Texas and Georgia already are heavily gerrymandered for Republicans.  So is South Carolina. 

Texas is a court map IIRC, since Democrats controlled the State house in 2001 and couldn't agree with Perry on a map so it went to the courts.  Remember they dropped to 76 seats in 2008--not something that could realistically happen in a Republican-Gerrymandered map.  They'll also probably pick up a seat or two in South Texas since they can uncrack the Republican votes there.

Same with Georgia I think, though I'm pretty sure it was a Dem Gerrymander turned Dummymander, so I don't know.  Republicans tried to redraw the map in 2005 but got struck down, which is why the current congressional map looks kind of reasonable.

The GOP got to redraw the Georgia state Legislature map back in 2003 after the Dem map was struck down. 

[Mr.Phips]

Arkansas' legislature will go Republican.  The GOP didn't contest many districts in 2010 and won about all of them.  With Obama on top of the ballot, they can only go up.

How can the GOP not get more seats in the WV Senate.  It is a lock for them to gain.

I expect at least one Tennessee Senate seat gain for the GOP.  The seats up in 2012 were contested in 2008.  There is that Clarksville seat where the Democrats denied the primary victory to the Republican leaning Senator and left the liberal Dem unopposed.

Again, with Obama at the top, the Kentucky State House will likely get a few more GOP members.  The guy who switched in Louisville the other day has to be an odd duck who just wanted to be on the majority side.

I do expect GOP losses in Florida.  It is hard to understand how they have two to one majorities in so closely divided a state.

I read that the redistricting in Texas will pretty much guarantee a super majority in the State H of R.

Thanks for the chance to comment!

Thanks for the chance to comment.

Democrats are gerrymandering Arkansas.

[Mr.Phips]

Again, with Obama at the top, the Kentucky State House will likely get a few more GOP members.

Um, no.

Democrats actually gained seats in Kentucky with Obama leading the ticket in 2008. 

[Mr.Phips]

Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 

[Mr.Phips]

Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 

If you think that having Barack Obama at the top of the ticket will help down-ballot white southern Democrats, then I don't know what to say to you.  Considering how successful Republicans have been in the South in nationalizing elections, it would not surprise me if we find next January that the only southern legislature we hold in the region will be in West Virginia -and even there we are likely on borrowed time.  I am not expecting that we will be able to hold our ground even there by the 2020 census. 

And BTW, it is interesting that we have switched roles here.  I am not accustomed to you being the optimist. 

Republicans tried to nationalize the races in Kentucky in 2010 and didnt work very well.  There will be far higher minority and youth turnout in 2012, which will help Democrats. 

[Mr.Phips]

My own predictions -the GOP will take over the Arkansas legislature this year, and will likely continue to narrow the gap in the Kentucky House while shoring up their majority in the Kentucky Senate.  This is a conservative prediction, mind you -it is entirely possible that the GOP can take over the Kentucky legislature outright, and thus be in position to redistrict the state chambers next year.

As for West Virginia -there is no chance in hell that the GOP can take over this year (needless to say), but they will gain substantially in the legislature there in both chambers much like their counterparts in Arkansas did in 2010 who faced similar daunting odds that year.  

I will not comment on the other states, except that the outlook does not look bright for Democrats anywhere in the region -especially in North Carolina.  

If Republcians were going to take over the Kentucky House, 2010 would have been the year.  Same with West Virginia.  Not every year is going to be 2010 for Republicans. 

[Mr.Phips]

Just came upon this analysis of the Arkansas Senate, and in brief, it states Republicans are favored to win the chamber due to declining population in the Delta region, and conversely rising population in the northwest of the state.  

Thoughts?

This wasnt a problem for Republicans in the New York state Senate, who didnt have to shift seats downstate due to population changes or in the Virginia Assembly, where Democratic NOVA gained districts.  What Democrats should have done to compensate for this shift is to pack as many Republicans as possible into the smallest number of Northwestern districts possible and stitch together districts out of Democratic precincts in that part of the state. 

[Mr.Phips]

Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 

If you think that having Barack Obama at the top of the ticket will help down-ballot white southern Democrats, then I don't know what to say to you.  Considering how successful Republicans have been in the South in nationalizing elections, it would not surprise me if we find next January that the only southern legislature we hold in the region will be in West Virginia -and even there we are likely on borrowed time.  I am not expecting that we will be able to hold our ground even there by the 2020 census. 

And BTW, it is interesting that we have switched roles here.  I am not accustomed to you being the optimist. 

Then how come Republicans are still able to hold on to strongly Democratic legislative seats in New York, Michigan and Pennsylvania?  Wont having Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket hurt them?

[Mr.Phips]

Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 

If you think that having Barack Obama at the top of the ticket will help down-ballot white southern Democrats, then I don't know what to say to you.  Considering how successful Republicans have been in the South in nationalizing elections, it would not surprise me if we find next January that the only southern legislature we hold in the region will be in West Virginia -and even there we are likely on borrowed time.  I am not expecting that we will be able to hold our ground even there by the 2020 census. 

And BTW, it is interesting that we have switched roles here.  I am not accustomed to you being the optimist. 

Then how come Republicans are still able to hold on to strongly Democratic legislative seats in New York, Michigan and Pennsylvania?  Wont having Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket hurt them?

2 of those 3 are not strongly Democratic. The third is done through vicious gerrymandering.

There are districts in Pennsylvania and Michigan that Republicans hold that are over 60% Obama.  Same in New York. 

[Mr.Phips]

Its very interesting looking at these Southern state legislative results.  It looked like a repeat of 2010 in most of these states, save Florida.