Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012

[rbt48]

Arkansas' legislature will go Republican.  The GOP didn't contest many districts in 2010 and won about all of them.  With Obama on top of the ballot, they can only go up.

How can the GOP not get more seats in the WV Senate.  It is a lock for them to gain.

I expect at least one Tennessee Senate seat gain for the GOP.  The seats up in 2012 were contested in 2008.  There is that Clarksville seat where the Democrats denied the primary victory to the Republican leaning Senator and left the liberal Dem unopposed.

Again, with Obama at the top, the Kentucky State House will likely get a few more GOP members.  The guy who switched in Louisville the other day has to be an odd duck who just wanted to be on the majority side.

I do expect GOP losses in Florida.  It is hard to understand how they have two to one majorities in so closely divided a state.

I read that the redistricting in Texas will pretty much guarantee a super majority in the State H of R.

Thanks for the chance to comment!

[rbt48]

Democrats actually gained seats in Kentucky with Obama leading the ticket in 2008.  
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Again, with Obama at the top, the Kentucky State House will likely get a few more GOP members.

Um, no.

So, do you think it will remain 59-41, or are you seeing Democratic gains?  Personally, I just can't help but see some GOP gains with Obama getting shellacked in the state as the legislature inevitably heads towards Republican control in the next several elections.

[rbt48]

In Kentucky, I expect the Senate will remain Republican and that they will pick up around 6 seats in the House.  Obama at the top of the ticket will be a drag on Democrats.

In West Virginia, there is no place to go but up in the Senate and the GOP should gain 8 seats for a 20 to 14 balance in favor of the Democrats.  In the House, I expect around a 5 seat GOP gain for a 60 to 40 Democrat chamber.

I think the GOP will take control of both chambers in Arkansas.

I see little change in the following state's legislatures:  Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma. 

In Texas, the Democrats should gain 5 to 8 seats in the House.  The Senate will remain 19-12 or perhaps have a one seat GOP gain to 20-11. 

In Florida, the Republicans are over-represented.  With the new redistricting, they should gain 4 or 5 seats and perhaps 10 in the House.  The new Senate might be 42 to 16 and the House 71 to 49 in the Republican's favor.

Really, in all states but Florida and North Carolina, Obama will be a drag for the Democrats chances.  In North Carolina, Obama's help to the ticket will be counter-balanced by the new districts drawn by the Republican legislature.

Oh, and if a new election is ordered in Mississippi, the Republican margins will be maintained pretty much as they are.  If the new legislature is given the opportunity to draw the boundaries, for sure.  If they are court ordered, I still don't see much advantage for the Democrats there as black majority districts would be protected leaving the Republican districts in tact.

[rbt48]

In Kentucky, I expect the Senate will remain Republican and that they will pick up around 6 seats in the House.

To see the look on your face a year from now...

I imagine it will look a year older. 

What am I missing about what you are implying.  Are you saying that because a moderate-conservative incumbent Democrat is re-elected as Governor of Kentucky, the Republicans are in decline in the state (Commonwealth)? 

I stand by my prediction.

[rbt48]

How did we see that the Kentucky GOP is in decline?

Didn't you see the election results on Tuesday?

I saw a popular incumbent moderate/conservative Democrat win the gubernatorial election, in a state that sometime votes for moderate and conservative Democrats (like Bill Clinton).

It goes to show that the Democrats can be competitive in KY with the right kind of candidate, not that the state is the next Colorado.

Yes, I agree.  The future is brighter for Republicans in Kentucky than for Democrats.  Kentucky really still has a leftover Democratic bias from the end of the Civil War.  Though it remained in the Union during the war, immediately afterward it aligned itself strongly with the Solid South, perhaps in part in response to the passage of the 13th Amendment.  Like Mississippi and Arkansas (until recently), it supports a moderate/conservative Democrat for State offices, all things being equal.  But its tendency to support Republicans in Federal elections is inevitably going to be reflected more and more in State elections.  Until 1994, the 1st and 2nd CDs (western Kentucky) would never elect a Republican.  Now, can anyone envision them electing a Democrat anytime soon?

[rbt48]

In Arkansas, the Lt Gov is not first in line to become governor in case of a vacancy.  I think the law was changed to make the Senate President first in line after Mike Huckabee moved up when Tucker was convicted and had to resign.  At that time, the state legislature was so heavily Democratic, no one envisioned that Republicans would assume control.  
"If the elected governor resigns, dies, is removed, or is otherwise unable to discharge the office, the president of the Senate is the first to succeed, serving as the governor until an election is held. He also serves as acting governor if the incumbent is temporarily unable to exercise his office. The next in line is the speaker of the Arkansas House of Representatives. Arkansas is unusual is that there is a constitutionally designated lieutenant governor, but he is not the first in the line of succession."

Perhaps if the GOP takes the State Senate in November, a lame duck session will return the Lt Gov to being first in line (though the current Lt Gov, Mark Darr, is a Republican anyway).