Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012

[Skill and Chance]

Not many--most are either solidly Democratic and will stay that way (WV, AR) or the reverse (OK, FL, etc)

If anything, the Democrats will likely make big gains in NC, TX, and FL.

Mississippi will be the only one the Dems lose.

Yes I have a feeling NC could flip back in 2012.  Note that the NC constitution forbids unnecessary county splits in state legislative districts, so the legislature can't really be gerrymandered.  If FL gets successfully de-gerrymandered, then there should be several Dem pickups, but not nearly enough for a majority.

[Skill and Chance]

Not many--most are either solidly Democratic and will stay that way (WV, AR) or the reverse (OK, FL, etc)

If anything, the Democrats will likely make big gains in NC, TX, and FL.

Mississippi will be the only one the Dems lose.

Yes I have a feeling NC could flip back in 2012.  Note that the NC constitution forbids unnecessary county splits in state legislative districts, so the legislature can't really be gerrymandered.  If FL gets successfully de-gerrymandered, then there should be several Dem pickups, but not nearly enough for a majority.

There will probably be pretty big gains for Democrats in the Texas House, as Democrats lost every possible district there and even had some party switches from districts that Republicans will never hold. 

There should be a bit of a snapback to Democrats in Georgia too with Obama leading the ticket. 

GA and TX are both going to be gerrymandered to kingdom come, so much so that I'm not convinced Dems can make significant gains.  TX is probably a lost cause this decade.  GA Dems have some hope of reclaiming the legislature in the long term, but that would be around 2016-20 if GA follows VA and NC to the left.