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Author Topic: Current US Senate Ratings (incl. Map)  (Read 5576 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 08, 2011, 01:56:40 am »



[15] Strong Democratic (winning margin = 10%+)Sad/b]

WA, CA, HI, MN, WI, MI, OH, PA, WV, MD, DE, NY, CT, VT, RI

[3] Slightly Democratic (winning margin = 0.1-9.9%)Sad/b]

NM, FL, NJ

[5] Toss-Ups:

NV, AZ (with Giffords), MT, MO, VA

[1] Slightly Republican (winning margin = 0.1-9.9%)Sad/b]

IN (with Donnelly now in and Lugar most likely to have a Tea-Party challenge)

[9] Strong Republican (winning margin = 10%+)Sad/b]

UT, WY, ND, NE, TX, MS, TN, MA, ME

...

Some points to add:

NV could also be "Slightly Republican" right now, but the fact that Democrats underpolled by a lot in the last 2 cycles makes it a "Toss-Up".

AZ of course is only a "Toss-Up" because of Giffords, who's health is getting considerable better each day.

WI could be "Slightly Democratic" right now due to the polarized climate in the state, even though polling says something different. It also depends if Ryan runs for Senate.

IN could also be "Strong Republican" right now, but I guess Donnelly could give a weaker Lugar a run for his money. The absence of polling in this state doesn't really help.

TN could also be "Toss-Up" right now, but only if popular former Gov. Bredesen decides to run.

Polling in MI, OH, PA, WV indicates that Democrats are on the verge of a 10% winning margin against not-yet-well-known GOP challengers, therefore "Strong Democratic" for the moment.

In NJ, Sen. Menendez has weak approvals and despite it being New Jersey, the prospect of Kean Jr. jumping in keeps the race close.

Recent polling has also indicated that CT will likely be a "strong" win for the Democrats and in MA, Sen. Brown looks currently unbeatable.

...

What do you think ? Are my ratings mostly correct ?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2011, 02:03:47 am »

I also don't know what to do with Utah, because Sen. Hatch looks very weak and could lose his primary.

A recent poll also showed that he only leads the Democrat Matheson by 7 points.

But because it's fu**ing Utah, I'll keep it "Strong GOP" for now.
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« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2011, 07:53:15 am »

I think it's nuts to presume Giffords will be a candidate. She was shot in the head and is, apparantly not even well enough to make a tv appearance. I get the sympathy and all that, but she clearly doesn't have the capacity to hold this office (not that that ever stopped Thurmond or Bunning).
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« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2011, 08:15:43 am »

No way MA is strong Republican. Especially considering that on election day 2012, the Senate control may be up in the air, and Mass. voters realize that their vote might determine who has control of the Senate in 2013.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2011, 08:28:50 am »

No way MA is strong Republican. Especially considering that on election day 2012, the Senate control may be up in the air, and Mass. voters realize that their vote might determine who has control of the Senate in 2013.

Ticket-splitting en masse. MA voters will re-elect Brown (probably by a big margin) and also elect Obama by a big margin. I could even see Brown helping the Republicans make the state tougher to win for Obama, or better said, make his winning margin smaller. Brown is massively popular right now in the state and I don't see any Democrat who can win against him.
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« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2011, 08:49:39 am »

No way MA is strong Republican. Especially considering that on election day 2012, the Senate control may be up in the air, and Mass. voters realize that their vote might determine who has control of the Senate in 2013.

That was true in Rhode Island 2000. Few people think that way, because for it to matter, you have to believe that Obama will lose.
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« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2011, 09:23:54 am »

Once democrats have a candidate in Mass., the race will get a lot closer. and Kerry, the Kennedys and Obama will be campaigning for him. I don't think Brown will win, specially if republicans nominate a person who isn't romney.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2011, 09:35:23 am »

Once democrats have a candidate in Mass., the race will get a lot closer. and Kerry, the Kennedys and Obama will be campaigning for him. I don't think Brown will win, specially if republicans nominate a person who isn't romney.

We have seen what Obama campaigning for Coakley or a few other Dems has done.

Zero effect.
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« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2011, 09:56:56 am »

I agree that Massachusetts is far from strong Republican. I know it was a House race, but I like to compare it to Bobby Bright in AL-2, it looked like his personal popularity would carry him over the line, but that was not in the cards, because the electorate was too tilted toward the other side. And Brown certainly won't make the state more difficult for Obama to win, if anything, the GOP presidential nominee could cause problems for Brown. All his opponent as to do is tie him to Mitch McConnell and he is done, Massachusetts is the sort of state where a tactic like that works.
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« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2011, 04:40:06 pm »

Will the dynamics change much in Maine if Olympia Snowe is teabagged and loses the primary? I assume if she loses, it will give Democrats a big edge and could shift the race into the Leans Democratic category and creating the chance for a pickup - unless she pulls a Lisa Murkowski and runs as an Independent, in which case she would probably very likely win with well over 50 percent of the vote.
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« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2011, 05:13:31 pm »

No way MA is strong Republican. Especially considering that on election day 2012, the Senate control may be up in the air, and Mass. voters realize that their vote might determine who has control of the Senate in 2013.

That was true in Rhode Island 2000. Few people think that way, because for it to matter, you have to believe that Obama will lose.

1) Chafee's father served in the Senate almost four terms.
2) Brown may be moderate by national GOP standards, but he's still conservative compared to a New England Republican, esp. Chafee
3) RI-Dems nominated a somewhat conservative candidate; I think Chafee was to left of his opponent on some issues
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« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2011, 05:23:44 pm »

If you don't mind, I'll throw in my own map of how I see things:

This is with no toss-ups, and assuming Snowe, Lugar, and Hatch all survive primary challenges. Republicans pick up 4 seats, thus, take the Senate. A lot can change, though I say at this point it's pretty safe to say the GOP will at least be picking up 2 seats, while Democrats aren't certain to pick up any.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2011, 11:20:44 pm »

I don't expect Sherrod Brown to be re-elected by 10+ points unless there's a Republican meltdown of some kind. Right now the polls may have Brown winning by large margins but that's because no one knows who the Republican will be, not because Brown is popular. The reality is that his ideology doesn't match Ohio's very well. Heck, a few people probably have him mixed up with Scott Brown!

Lee Fisher was leading in the polls by a good margin until a couple months before the 2010 election and no one really knew who Rob Portman was. The Republicans have a fine bench in Ohio and shouldn't have much trouble finding a decent candidate. I expect this to end up a very close election and Ohio will elect a Senator of the same party as it votes for the white house, whichever that may be.
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« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2011, 11:52:28 pm »

Will the dynamics change much in Maine if Olympia Snowe is teabagged and loses the primary? I assume if she loses, it will give Democrats a big edge and could shift the race into the Leans Democratic category and creating the chance for a pickup - unless she pulls a Lisa Murkowski and runs as an Independent, in which case she would probably very likely win with well over 50 percent of the vote.

I think it's for that very reason the GOP won't let her fall in the primary.  If they do, she's likely to pull a Murkowski and discredit the party.
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« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2011, 09:21:56 am »

Once democrats have a candidate in Mass., the race will get a lot closer. and Kerry, the Kennedys and Obama will be campaigning for him. I don't think Brown will win, specially if republicans nominate a person who isn't romney.

We have seen what Obama campaigning for Coakley or a few other Dems has done.

Zero effect.

It is important to note here that Brown is on extremely good terms with Massachusetts Democrats (read: the ones in political power), from Mayor Menino all the way up to the congressional delegation. I'm not sure why the establishment likes him, but it does. And so long as it does, it's going to be damn hard to get Brown out of office.

PS: With regard to the Kennedy thing ... Massachusetts has moved on. We loved Jack because there was a reason to love Jack. We loved Ted because there was a reason to love Ted. But ... at this point, what exactly does the family have left aside from drunkards, spoiled brats, and a lobbyist for Venezuelan oil concerns?
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« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2011, 09:37:40 am »

I don't expect Sherrod Brown to be re-elected by 10+ points unless there's a Republican meltdown of some kind. Right now the polls may have Brown winning by large margins but that's because no one knows who the Republican will be, not because Brown is popular. The reality is that his ideology doesn't match Ohio's very well. Heck, a few people probably have him mixed up with Scott Brown!

Lee Fisher was leading in the polls by a good margin until a couple months before the 2010 election and no one really knew who Rob Portman was. The Republicans have a fine bench in Ohio and shouldn't have much trouble finding a decent candidate. I expect this to end up a very close election and Ohio will elect a Senator of the same party as it votes for the white house, whichever that may be.

No, Brown is winning because voters are furious about SB5 and because of the Republican field (also Brown's a strong campaigner).  Mary Taylor is too closely tied to Kasich to beat Brown in 2012.  Josh Mandel is regarded (rightfully so) as an extremist (and there's the hyper-islamophobic ad he ran against Boyce, who isn't even Muslim).  Jim Jordan doesn't seem too interested anymore and is probably to right-wing anyway.  Ken Blackwell...well...is Ken Blackwell Tongue  LaTourette isn't going to run b/c redistricting won't cause him problems.  The Republican party's best bet by far was Tiberi and he isn't running.  When Republicans have this much trouble finding a candidate to run in Ohio against a solidly liberal Senator, it means that the Senator is thought to be leading for reasons beyond simple name recognition. 
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« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2011, 11:56:34 am »

I thought Mandel was considered a rising star in Ohio politics and that his biggest problem seems to be the optics of running for senator just months after he became treasurer.
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« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2011, 11:21:51 pm »

Here's what my current ratings are.

Its my normal tossup/slight/lean/likely/safe system.

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« Reply #18 on: May 10, 2011, 11:10:47 am »

I thought Mandel was considered a rising star in Ohio politics and that his biggest problem seems to be the optics of running for senator just months after he became treasurer.

No, Mandel is certainly not considered a rising star.  However, you're correct that his decision to run for Senate right after being elected treasurer doesn't look very good.  Mandel won by such a large margin for two reasons.  The first is that it was probably impossible for any Democrat to win statewide in Ohio in 2010 (this alone is why Strickland, Cordray, and possibly Pepper lost).  The second (and more important in terms of the margin) is that Mandel's opponent, Kevin Boyce, turned out to have a number of ethical issues that ensured a large Mandel victory.  However, Mandel ran an ad during the campaign that was so blatantly islamophobic that some papers actually withdrew their endorsements of Mandel in response.  http://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2010/oct/14/josh-mandel/josh-mandel-weaves-images-islam-throughout-ad-alle/.  I could go on, but I think you probably get the idea.
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« Reply #19 on: May 10, 2011, 02:55:45 pm »

Following Isaac, with no tossups:

Likewise, it assumes that Lugar, Hatch, and Snowe all survive.
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« Reply #20 on: May 10, 2011, 08:12:28 pm »

To analyze all of them:

Maine: No matter what, Snowe is returning to Congress in 2013. She either wins the GOP primary and crushes the Democrat no matter how good an environment it is for the Democrats, or she pulls a Crist and wins (unlike Charlie)

Vermont: My favorite senator returns for his second term.

Massachusetts: Though he's well-liked in Massachusetts, he will likely face a toss-up once the Democrats unify under one candidate--Massachusetts voters might be willing to vote for moderate Republicans for governor, but they'll be split when they realize that their vote will hugely impact control of the Senate.

Rhode Island: Whitehouse wins easily, even with a stronger candidate like Carcieri.

Connecticut: Murphy or that other woman wins, and goes on to win the general handily.

New York: Kirsten looked unsafe at first, but now she's strong enough to win easily.

Joisey: Menendez is like most politicians in the Garden State--not too popular, but they'll vote for him anyway unless he FUBARs like Corzine did. Even then, only Thomas Kean Jr. has a chance.

Pennsylvania: Casey is a perfect fit for my state, and I'll make a prediction that he goes up against Santorum in the general election (he's out after Iowa and has enough time to register for the GOP Senate primaries).

Virginia: Will most likely blow to whoever wins the state in the presidential elections. If Obama wins it by a similar or greater margin than 2008, Kaine wins. If Virginia goes to the Republican or to Obama by an inch, Allen wins.

West Virginia: Completely safe unless Capito runs, and then it's still a decent situation for Manchin.

Ohio: The Republicans killed their chances of beating Brown with what they did in the state legislature, and Brown fits well for a liberal in a swing state, since he's also a populist in the Rustbelt.

Indiana: Could be close if Lugar loses and the Democrats choose Donnelly, but if he wins he'll win the general no matter what.

Michigan: Everyone with a chance of winning has dropped out, and so Stabenow is probably safe for re-election.

Wisconsin: The Democrat probably wins, since Paul Ryan isn't running. Actually, at this point Paul Ryan would be the worst Senate candidate.

Minnesota: Klobuchar smashes either Bachmann or some no-name guy that nobody cares about.

North Dakota: Unless Dorgan decides to come back, it's a Republican pick-up.

Montana: Rehberg has moved to the right, and the Montana GOP has started to lose its sanity. For this reason, Tester holds on by the skin of his teeth.

Wyoming: Safe GOP. The Democrats shouldn't bother to field a candidate unless something really, really freaky happens.

Utah: Safe Republican no matter who wins the primary (either Hatch or Chaffetz)

Nebraska: Nelson loses, and nothing really changes. The one Democrat I would shed no tears for.

Missouri: The plane thing hasn't had too much of an effect on polling. McCaskill will be helped by a brutal primary, but the race will be decided by who's year it is nationwide.

Tennessee: Unless Bredesen runs, safe GOP.

Mississippi: Probably safe GOP. Taylor's a lost cause in the state.

Florida: Nelson looks pretty solid for a Democrat in Florida. Unless Jeb changes his mind, Nelson is the favorite for re-election.

Texas: The best man for the Democrats was Bill white, and he decided not to run. Edwards or Cuellar could make it competitive, but it's still a likely Republican hold.

New Mexico: Eh, I don't think the Democrats have too much to worry about here. Heinrich probably has a nice career ahead of him.

Arizona: Giffords isn't running. Get over it. Could be competitive between Flake and whoever the Democrat is, but I think that the GOP will hold on in the end.

Nevada: I'm staying out of this one.

California: Feinstein returns to the Senate with ease.

Washington: Cantwell holds on, since the race the GOP is eying in the state is the governors' mansion, an easier target.

Hawaii: Safe Democratic--Lingle isn't actually much better than the other Republicans.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2011, 01:33:32 am »



Look at the source on the bottom left of the graphic ... Wink

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/15/us/politics/15senate.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: May 21, 2011, 08:35:30 am »

I think Captio should wait until 2014 to run in West Virgnia. It would be great for him to upset Jay Rockefeller in 2014.

Let me correct your sentence ... Tongue

"I think Shelley Moore Capito should wait until 2014 to run in West Virginia. It would be great for her to upset Jay Rockefeller in 2014."
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2011, 08:09:06 pm »

Easy mistake to make. Shelly is such a masculine name, after all.
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« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2011, 08:13:35 pm »

Don't be so presumptuous.  He was clearly referring to a gentleman by the name of Captio, not Congresswoman Capito.
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