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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, x)
  Current US Senate Ratings (incl. Map) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Current US Senate Ratings (incl. Map)  (Read 5772 times)
King Andrew of House Beshear
jdb
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« on: May 09, 2011, 09:37:40 am »

I don't expect Sherrod Brown to be re-elected by 10+ points unless there's a Republican meltdown of some kind. Right now the polls may have Brown winning by large margins but that's because no one knows who the Republican will be, not because Brown is popular. The reality is that his ideology doesn't match Ohio's very well. Heck, a few people probably have him mixed up with Scott Brown!

Lee Fisher was leading in the polls by a good margin until a couple months before the 2010 election and no one really knew who Rob Portman was. The Republicans have a fine bench in Ohio and shouldn't have much trouble finding a decent candidate. I expect this to end up a very close election and Ohio will elect a Senator of the same party as it votes for the white house, whichever that may be.

No, Brown is winning because voters are furious about SB5 and because of the Republican field (also Brown's a strong campaigner).  Mary Taylor is too closely tied to Kasich to beat Brown in 2012.  Josh Mandel is regarded (rightfully so) as an extremist (and there's the hyper-islamophobic ad he ran against Boyce, who isn't even Muslim).  Jim Jordan doesn't seem too interested anymore and is probably to right-wing anyway.  Ken Blackwell...well...is Ken Blackwell Tongue  LaTourette isn't going to run b/c redistricting won't cause him problems.  The Republican party's best bet by far was Tiberi and he isn't running.  When Republicans have this much trouble finding a candidate to run in Ohio against a solidly liberal Senator, it means that the Senator is thought to be leading for reasons beyond simple name recognition. 
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King Andrew of House Beshear
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,635
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2011, 11:10:47 am »

I thought Mandel was considered a rising star in Ohio politics and that his biggest problem seems to be the optics of running for senator just months after he became treasurer.

No, Mandel is certainly not considered a rising star.  However, you're correct that his decision to run for Senate right after being elected treasurer doesn't look very good.  Mandel won by such a large margin for two reasons.  The first is that it was probably impossible for any Democrat to win statewide in Ohio in 2010 (this alone is why Strickland, Cordray, and possibly Pepper lost).  The second (and more important in terms of the margin) is that Mandel's opponent, Kevin Boyce, turned out to have a number of ethical issues that ensured a large Mandel victory.  However, Mandel ran an ad during the campaign that was so blatantly islamophobic that some papers actually withdrew their endorsements of Mandel in response.  http://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2010/oct/14/josh-mandel/josh-mandel-weaves-images-islam-throughout-ad-alle/.  I could go on, but I think you probably get the idea.
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