[15] Strong Democratic (winning margin = 10%+)
/b] WA, CA, HI, MN, WI, MI, OH, PA, WV, MD, DE, NY, CT, VT, RI
[3] Slightly Democratic (winning margin = 0.1-9.9%)/b]NM, FL, NJ
[5] Toss-Ups:NV, AZ (with Giffords), MT, MO, VA
[1] Slightly Republican (winning margin = 0.1-9.9%)/b]IN (with Donnelly now in and Lugar most likely to have a Tea-Party challenge)
[9] Strong Republican (winning margin = 10%+)/b]UT, WY, ND, NE, TX, MS, TN, MA, ME
...
Some points to add:
NV could also be "Slightly Republican" right now, but the fact that Democrats underpolled by a lot in the last 2 cycles makes it a "Toss-Up".
AZ of course is only a "Toss-Up" because of Giffords, who's health is getting considerable better each day.
WI could be "Slightly Democratic" right now due to the polarized climate in the state, even though polling says something different. It also depends if Ryan runs for Senate.
IN could also be "Strong Republican" right now, but I guess Donnelly could give a weaker Lugar a run for his money. The absence of polling in this state doesn't really help.
TN could also be "Toss-Up" right now, but only if popular former Gov. Bredesen decides to run.
Polling in MI, OH, PA, WV indicates that Democrats are on the verge of a 10% winning margin against not-yet-well-known GOP challengers, therefore "Strong Democratic" for the moment.
In NJ, Sen. Menendez has weak approvals and despite it being New Jersey, the prospect of Kean Jr. jumping in keeps the race close.
Recent polling has also indicated that CT will likely be a "strong" win for the Democrats and in MA, Sen. Brown looks currently unbeatable.
...
What do you think ? Are my ratings mostly correct ?
