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November 15, 2019, 08:54:54 pm
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

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  Current US Senate Ratings (incl. Map) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Current US Senate Ratings (incl. Map)  (Read 5770 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,666
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: May 08, 2011, 01:56:40 am »



[15] Strong Democratic (winning margin = 10%+)Sad/b]

WA, CA, HI, MN, WI, MI, OH, PA, WV, MD, DE, NY, CT, VT, RI

[3] Slightly Democratic (winning margin = 0.1-9.9%)Sad/b]

NM, FL, NJ

[5] Toss-Ups:

NV, AZ (with Giffords), MT, MO, VA

[1] Slightly Republican (winning margin = 0.1-9.9%)Sad/b]

IN (with Donnelly now in and Lugar most likely to have a Tea-Party challenge)

[9] Strong Republican (winning margin = 10%+)Sad/b]

UT, WY, ND, NE, TX, MS, TN, MA, ME

...

Some points to add:

NV could also be "Slightly Republican" right now, but the fact that Democrats underpolled by a lot in the last 2 cycles makes it a "Toss-Up".

AZ of course is only a "Toss-Up" because of Giffords, who's health is getting considerable better each day.

WI could be "Slightly Democratic" right now due to the polarized climate in the state, even though polling says something different. It also depends if Ryan runs for Senate.

IN could also be "Strong Republican" right now, but I guess Donnelly could give a weaker Lugar a run for his money. The absence of polling in this state doesn't really help.

TN could also be "Toss-Up" right now, but only if popular former Gov. Bredesen decides to run.

Polling in MI, OH, PA, WV indicates that Democrats are on the verge of a 10% winning margin against not-yet-well-known GOP challengers, therefore "Strong Democratic" for the moment.

In NJ, Sen. Menendez has weak approvals and despite it being New Jersey, the prospect of Kean Jr. jumping in keeps the race close.

Recent polling has also indicated that CT will likely be a "strong" win for the Democrats and in MA, Sen. Brown looks currently unbeatable.

...

What do you think ? Are my ratings mostly correct ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,666
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2011, 02:03:47 am »

I also don't know what to do with Utah, because Sen. Hatch looks very weak and could lose his primary.

A recent poll also showed that he only leads the Democrat Matheson by 7 points.

But because it's fu**ing Utah, I'll keep it "Strong GOP" for now.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,666
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2011, 08:28:50 am »

No way MA is strong Republican. Especially considering that on election day 2012, the Senate control may be up in the air, and Mass. voters realize that their vote might determine who has control of the Senate in 2013.

Ticket-splitting en masse. MA voters will re-elect Brown (probably by a big margin) and also elect Obama by a big margin. I could even see Brown helping the Republicans make the state tougher to win for Obama, or better said, make his winning margin smaller. Brown is massively popular right now in the state and I don't see any Democrat who can win against him.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,666
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2011, 09:35:23 am »

Once democrats have a candidate in Mass., the race will get a lot closer. and Kerry, the Kennedys and Obama will be campaigning for him. I don't think Brown will win, specially if republicans nominate a person who isn't romney.

We have seen what Obama campaigning for Coakley or a few other Dems has done.

Zero effect.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,666
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2011, 01:33:32 am »

Image Link

Look at the source on the bottom left of the graphic ... Wink

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/15/us/politics/15senate.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,666
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2011, 08:35:30 am »

I think Captio should wait until 2014 to run in West Virgnia. It would be great for him to upset Jay Rockefeller in 2014.

Let me correct your sentence ... Tongue

"I think Shelley Moore Capito should wait until 2014 to run in West Virginia. It would be great for her to upset Jay Rockefeller in 2014."
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