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  Current US Senate Ratings (incl. Map) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Current US Senate Ratings (incl. Map)  (Read 5779 times)
Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« on: May 10, 2011, 08:12:28 pm »

To analyze all of them:

Maine: No matter what, Snowe is returning to Congress in 2013. She either wins the GOP primary and crushes the Democrat no matter how good an environment it is for the Democrats, or she pulls a Crist and wins (unlike Charlie)

Vermont: My favorite senator returns for his second term.

Massachusetts: Though he's well-liked in Massachusetts, he will likely face a toss-up once the Democrats unify under one candidate--Massachusetts voters might be willing to vote for moderate Republicans for governor, but they'll be split when they realize that their vote will hugely impact control of the Senate.

Rhode Island: Whitehouse wins easily, even with a stronger candidate like Carcieri.

Connecticut: Murphy or that other woman wins, and goes on to win the general handily.

New York: Kirsten looked unsafe at first, but now she's strong enough to win easily.

Joisey: Menendez is like most politicians in the Garden State--not too popular, but they'll vote for him anyway unless he FUBARs like Corzine did. Even then, only Thomas Kean Jr. has a chance.

Pennsylvania: Casey is a perfect fit for my state, and I'll make a prediction that he goes up against Santorum in the general election (he's out after Iowa and has enough time to register for the GOP Senate primaries).

Virginia: Will most likely blow to whoever wins the state in the presidential elections. If Obama wins it by a similar or greater margin than 2008, Kaine wins. If Virginia goes to the Republican or to Obama by an inch, Allen wins.

West Virginia: Completely safe unless Capito runs, and then it's still a decent situation for Manchin.

Ohio: The Republicans killed their chances of beating Brown with what they did in the state legislature, and Brown fits well for a liberal in a swing state, since he's also a populist in the Rustbelt.

Indiana: Could be close if Lugar loses and the Democrats choose Donnelly, but if he wins he'll win the general no matter what.

Michigan: Everyone with a chance of winning has dropped out, and so Stabenow is probably safe for re-election.

Wisconsin: The Democrat probably wins, since Paul Ryan isn't running. Actually, at this point Paul Ryan would be the worst Senate candidate.

Minnesota: Klobuchar smashes either Bachmann or some no-name guy that nobody cares about.

North Dakota: Unless Dorgan decides to come back, it's a Republican pick-up.

Montana: Rehberg has moved to the right, and the Montana GOP has started to lose its sanity. For this reason, Tester holds on by the skin of his teeth.

Wyoming: Safe GOP. The Democrats shouldn't bother to field a candidate unless something really, really freaky happens.

Utah: Safe Republican no matter who wins the primary (either Hatch or Chaffetz)

Nebraska: Nelson loses, and nothing really changes. The one Democrat I would shed no tears for.

Missouri: The plane thing hasn't had too much of an effect on polling. McCaskill will be helped by a brutal primary, but the race will be decided by who's year it is nationwide.

Tennessee: Unless Bredesen runs, safe GOP.

Mississippi: Probably safe GOP. Taylor's a lost cause in the state.

Florida: Nelson looks pretty solid for a Democrat in Florida. Unless Jeb changes his mind, Nelson is the favorite for re-election.

Texas: The best man for the Democrats was Bill white, and he decided not to run. Edwards or Cuellar could make it competitive, but it's still a likely Republican hold.

New Mexico: Eh, I don't think the Democrats have too much to worry about here. Heinrich probably has a nice career ahead of him.

Arizona: Giffords isn't running. Get over it. Could be competitive between Flake and whoever the Democrat is, but I think that the GOP will hold on in the end.

Nevada: I'm staying out of this one.

California: Feinstein returns to the Senate with ease.

Washington: Cantwell holds on, since the race the GOP is eying in the state is the governors' mansion, an easier target.

Hawaii: Safe Democratic--Lingle isn't actually much better than the other Republicans.

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