Why does Germany have ...

[Tender Branson]

this very negative population growth that is higher than in any other country in the Western European Union ?

In 2010, the figures were:

~680.000 births
~860.000 deaths

The 2011 census population will likely be 80 Mio., so the rates per 1000 are:

  8.50 births/1000 people
10.75 deaths/1000 people

Why is the death rate so much higher than anywhere else, and why are births so low ?

[jimrtex]

this very negative population growth that is higher than in any other country in the Western European Union ?

In 2010, the figures were:

~680.000 births
~860.000 deaths

The 2011 census population will likely be 80 Mio., so the rates per 1000 are:

  8.50 births/1000 people
10.75 deaths/1000 people

Why is the death rate so much higher than anywhere else, and why are births so low ?

Go to here

Census Bureau International Data Base

Click on data access, and then look at some population pyramids.

The main cause is long-term low fertility rates.  Germany has a low share of 20-30 YO and low fertility rates, so has low birth rates.  It also means it has a lot of old people (as many people 75-79 as 0-4).  Relatively large shares of old people die.  It also appears that Germany did not have a post-WW II baby boom (more persons 70-74 than 60-64, eg born in late 1930s, vs late 1940s, which would be a reflection of large-scale loss of population in child-bearing years and hard economic times.  By the time prosperity returned, there was less likelihood of having large families.

[Tender Branson]

That means that Germany will likely shrink to about 60 Mio. people by 2050, because of this downward spiral, because by 2040-2050 about 1 Mio. people will die each year and only 500.000 people will be born ...

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

this very negative population growth that is higher than in any other country in the Western European Union ?

In 2010, the figures were:

~680.000 births
~860.000 deaths

The 2011 census population will likely be 80 Mio., so the rates per 1000 are:

  8.50 births/1000 people
10.75 deaths/1000 people

Why is the death rate so much higher than anywhere else, and why are births so low ?

Go to here

Census Bureau International Data Base

Click on data access, and then look at some population pyramids.

The main cause is long-term low fertility rates.  Germany has a low share of 20-30 YO and low fertility rates, so has low birth rates.  It also means it has a lot of old people (as many people 75-79 as 0-4).  Relatively large shares of old people die.  It also appears that Germany did not have a post-WW II baby boom (more persons 70-74 than 60-64, eg born in late 1930s, vs late 1940s, which would be a reflection of large-scale loss of population in child-bearing years and hard economic times.  By the time prosperity returned, there was less likelihood of having large families.

that is a huge decrease between 1960s and 1970s births also.
How are West vs East German areas in terms of population growth?

[Ban my account ffs!]

Germany has had very low fertility rates since about 1900.  The number of births in modern day German territory peaked around 1910 and then fell gradually until WWI when birth rates plummeted.  Births remained quite low in the 20s and into the 30s until Hitler pushed for more babies.. thus there was a boomlet from about 1936-1942 or so.. but then births fell dramatically and didn't begin rising again until around 1950.

Even at the height of the postwar baby boom in the early 1960s, total fertility rates were only 2.6... compared to 3.75 children per woman at the height of the American baby boom in the late 1950s.  Then in the late 60s and early 70s, birth rates plummeted to record lows just as the large generation born around 1910... which had largely been too young to fight in WWI and too old to fight in WWII began to die off... so Germany's population actually fell in the 70s.

Births stabilized, but remained quite low, through the late 70s-early 90s... and an increase in immigration and relatively fewer deaths because of the smaller interwar generation allowed the population to grow slightly.

Since the early 90s, fertility rates have varied greatly across Germany with relatively higher rates (though still low by even European standards) around 1.6 children per woman in northwestern Germany (Frankfurt/Cologne) to as low as 0.8 children per woman in parts of East Germany.  On top of the incredibly low birth rates in the former DDR, there is a mass exodus of young people... so that populations even in the bigger cities have fallen by as much as a third since 1990.  The drop in births between 1990 and 1991 was so great in the former DDR that many schools saw the number of graduates drop by half in just one year.

Even in the predominantly Catholic, more conservative, and more prosperous Bavaria... fertility rates are very low... around 1.4 children per woman.

A lot of that is owed to German culture.  German culture is still quite conservative when it comes to family matters... if a woman has a child, it is expected that she should stay home and raise the child.  Yet with the modern day economy, women want to work and have a career and don't necessarily want to mix having children and having a career.  So many women end up not having any children or waiting too long and then only having 1 or maybe 2 children once they reach their 30s.

In Scandinavia, where government rules and liberal welfare policies promote parenthood and workforce participation, fertility rates are around 1.9 children per woman, which while not sustainable if not for immigration, certainly won't cause a major crisis.  But even in Scandinavia where women get large sums of money to offset the cost of raising kids plus ample time of paid leave from work (fathers get it too)... it still only means 1.9 children per woman.

But anyway:  Germany's population will continue to shrink and at an even faster pace going into the next 30 years, first as the Hitler baby boom begins to die off and then the post war baby boom begins to die off.  Births are again falling quickly because the cohorts of young women entering child bearing years are now the already small generation born in the 70s and 80s while the baby boomers stop having kids.

Unless German women decide to start having large families.. the trend is almost self compounding.  The cost of raising a family will get higher as the elderly take a bigger chunk of the nation's wealth.. so families will stay small.

I think over time, fertility will rise again.. and eventually German women will have around 2 children as we learn how to balance life and work and have enough advances to take care of the elderly more cheaply... but at that point Germany will be a much smaller nation.

[minionofmidas]

this very negative population growth that is higher than in any other country in the Western European Union ?

In 2010, the figures were:

~680.000 births
~860.000 deaths

The 2011 census population will likely be 80 Mio., so the rates per 1000 are:

  8.50 births/1000 people
10.75 deaths/1000 people

Why is the death rate so much higher than anywhere else, and why are births so low ?

Go to here

Census Bureau International Data Base

Click on data access, and then look at some population pyramids.

The main cause is long-term low fertility rates.  Germany has a low share of 20-30 YO and low fertility rates, so has low birth rates.  It also means it has a lot of old people (as many people 75-79 as 0-4).  Relatively large shares of old people die.  It also appears that Germany did not have a post-WW II baby boom (more persons 70-74 than 60-64, eg born in late 1930s, vs late 1940s, which would be a reflection of large-scale loss of population in child-bearing years and hard economic times.  By the time prosperity returned, there was less likelihood of having large families.

that is a huge decrease between 1960s and 1970s births also.
How are West vs East German areas in terms of population growth?

East Germany is emptying fast. Internal migration is a major factor here, obviously.

[Person Man]

The Religious Right in this country likes to paint Germany as a warning about what the Secular Left will do to the United States in terms of demographic change. The ironic thing about this characterization is that birth rates are kept low by conservative policies that force families to have to choose between procreation and immediate survival.

I wonder what the abortion rate in Germany is.

[minionofmidas]

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/policy/abortion/germany/ab-ges.html

Lower than yours, actually.

[Person Man]

That's what I thought.  Its pretty ironic. The entire idea that a practical separation of Church and State causes demographic crashes due to contraception, abortion and feminism isn't really true.

Perhaps Germany is over its carrying capacity? I mean, does someone really expect 80,000,000 people to live on 150,000 square miles of land indefinitely? If the US had that density, we would have a population in the billions. That has to make everything expensive.

...and if there is no one being born or any abortions happening, I am guessing no one is conceiving. Is it boring to live in Germany or are they just really careful?

[minionofmidas]

The pattern is towards more concentration, not less (cities are stable, suburbs growing, rural areas losing population).
Yeah, all we're dealing with is the complex interplay of people's behavior and government incentives. Behavior change is hard to achieve, and anyways the joke is that "the only people who have kids are those who can't do the maths and those who don't have to".

[Person Man]

The pattern is towards more concentration, not less (cities are stable, suburbs growing, rural areas losing population).
Yeah, all we're dealing with is the complex interplay of people's behavior and government incentives. Behavior change is hard to achieve, and anyways the joke is that "the only people who have kids are those who can't do the maths and those who don't have to".

Does this have anything to do with why people are complaining about not having a Middle Class?