New Jersey Turns Against Christie

[pbrower2a]

A new SUSA poll shows these awful numbers for Christie:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as Governor?
Approve 38%
Disapprove 56%

Should Governor Chris Christie run for President of the United States in 2012? Not run for President? Or do you not know enough to say?
Should Run 15%
Should Not 73%

Compared to Barack Obama, would Christie be a better President? A worse President? Or would he be about the same?
Better 29%
Worse 53%
About The Same 14%

Compared to George W. Bush, would Christie be a better President? A worse President? Or would he be about the same?
Better 25%
Worse 30%
About The Same 32%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5ef5275c-3166-493d-aecb-3d856c8705a5

I have a map in progress showing the ability of state governors to get good results for themselves. This looks like an outlier, and it is hard to see how Christie could suddenly become as unpopular as Scott, Kasich, Walker, or Snyder.

[pbrower2a]

That poll is a year-and-a-half old, champ.

Should have caught that. It would never appear on my map because mine shows only post-election polls (mid-November 2012 onward). Christie gained support because he stood up to Republican politicians. That remains the reality. 

[pbrower2a]

Should have caught that. It would never appear on my map because mine shows only post-election polls (mid-November 2012 onward). Christie gained support because he stood up to Republican politicians. That remains the reality.  

Christie gained support because he was an able administrator during and after Hurricane Sandy. Standard rally effect. Standing up to national Republicans probably helped him hold on to and solidify that popularity, though.

He deserves recognition for putting service to the electorate above Party.


I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval.

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

Here is my map of current margins of approval for governors based only upon results from after the November 2012 election. As you can see from this map Chris Christie is in no danger of defeat in the next election.  Red shades indicate an incumbent Democrat in good shape, blue shades show an incumbent Republican in good shape. Deep red or blue shades indicate a very strong position in polling (as for Cuomo in New York or Christie in New Jersey). Orange shows the inverse of a Democrat being successful (Quinn is in trouble in Illinois) and green shows the inverse of a successful Republican Governor (Scott is wildly unpopular in Florida) .  

[pbrower2a]

12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling his job as Governor?

Tot    Rep    Dem      Ind    Men    Wom    Wht        Blk           Hsp   Approve              74%    93%    56%    78%    79%    69%    78%     56%    65% Disapprove           21      4         37       18       18        24       18        33       26 DK/NA                     5      3           7        4          3         7          4        10         9                        COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............                      Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+   Approve              70%    76%    68%    80%    75%    57%    76%    76%    79% Disapprove           25     18         26       16         22     40       20       20       13 DK/NA                      4      6           6         4           3       3         4         5         8                                                              Philly                Union                        Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn   land   Shore    HsHld   Approve                62%    76%    82%    68%    79%    66% Disapprove           28        21        15       27        14       29 DK/NA                     9          3          4         5          7         5

Few politicians these days can win every imaginable group within a state.  I don't know whether this will quite hold.

It's by a good pollster (Quinnipiac) and it is from Wednesday.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1833
 

[pbrower2a]

Why do young people oppose him so much?

The pattern is heavily so nationwide -- in general the youngest voters rarely believe that the Republican Party has much to offer them while it demands much of them.