New Jersey Turns Against Christie

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This, also many Republicans don't realize that Christie won largely due to Corzine and would have lost against, say, Codey or Pallone.

I don't think that's accurate.

Codey would have won, but that's a special case because he was a popular former governor. Christie was viewed as an incredibly strong candidate, one that New Jersey Democrats viewed in 2008 to be, by and large, unbeatable. I don't think Pallone would have have won.

Really silly speculation. Codey fell out of favor with the machine so its really moot. Corzine did as the unions commanded.

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Another poll out today (FDU):

44% Approve
44% Disapprove

40% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 804 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone with both landline and cell phones from May 16 through May 22, 2011, and has a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2011/blue

...

SurveyUSA seems to not only have a anti-Obama bias in most of their state surveys, but also a anti-Christie bias ...

Christie has a high floor and a low ceiling like any NJ governor. This is nothing new. Of course, the Democrats are about to take away our property tax relief.

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Even so, this the second or third poll that finds Christie's numbers slipping during the last month. Maybe the locals can enlighten us if anything special happened or it's just Newjerseyans returning to their usual grumpy mode.

The teachers' union is running ads against Christie.  And his poll numbers have usually been lowest in the spring, for whatever reason.

Not surprising. The teachers unions just lost their pension funding for another year.

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Considering the approvals ratings the last two governors of New Jersey suffered, Christie is still in decent shape.

I honestly don't understand (aside from wanting to make cheap partisan points) how someone can say Christie is doing poorly when one considers New Jersey's habit of giving their elected officials terrible ratings almost all of the time. Not to say that this makes Christie super popular or unbeatable but a rating in the high 40s is pretty damn impressive especially considering his outspokenness.

It's a lack of basic understanding of the state. NJ doesn't have a problem with bullies. See the NJEA.

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Yep, he's doing just fine and far  better than his predecessors.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/07/christie-on-decline.html

43% approval.

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Christie's campaign in 1 PDF. May induce vomiting.

http://www.aimitsolutions.com/njea/WestNewYorkEA/absolutenm/articlefiles/40-NJEA%E2%80%99s%20Legistative%20Successes.pdf

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Menendez's fav/unfav are 37/35. That's hardly comparable with Christie's 43/53.

Maybe, but why does Menendez have a much higher "no opinion"? He's been around much longer.

Because he doesn't do anything.

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Suburban New Jersey Democrats should be forced to explain why their residents' tax dollars have to cover 40% of Camden's budget.

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What is the sum of state support for Camden?

In my experience, people know that NJ's cities have areas of concentrated poverty and it doesn't make sense to abandon the kids there to whatever their inadequate rateables support. People who disagree, vote Republican. People who don't disagree but worry about taxes, are much more fixated on high property taxes, of which zero goes to Camden.

$69 million.

Here a full chart on transitional aid.

http://www.nj.gov/dca/lgs/muniaid/10_aid/cy2010_transitional_aid_to_localities.htm



This actually goes beyond Abbotts and schooling. Now we are paying for their basic daily operations on top of that.

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$69 million.

$8.50/person. Higher for more affluent people and families. Got it.

Many of those suburban Democrats are paying five figures in local property taxes by comparison.

Yes, that is certainly true.

In order to win a majority in the legislature, or at least a house in the legislature, the GOP will have to win at least 1 of those suburban Democratic districts.

In 2003 of course the Democrats were able to gain legislative seats despite McGreevey's horrid approvals. Christie's approvals are much higher than that; of course the Democrats have a built in advantage. In my view he will be easily re-elected at approvals like this but it will have some difficulty coattailing down to other Republicans.

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http://www.politickernj.com/51601/christie-approval-numbers-highest-level-ever-according-new-poll

The number is even higher among registered voters 55 percent of whom give the governor a favorable rating versus just 37 percent who are unimpressed with the job Christie is doing.


Up, up, and away!

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http://www.politickernj.com/53672/fdu-christie-approval-rating-53

Today's Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind Poll shows 53% of Garden State voters approving of the job Gov. Chris Christie is doing, while 37% disapprove, a net advantage of 16 percentage points and virtually identical to his standing a year ago before his 2011 State of the State address.

Three of five voters (59%) continue to say the state should hold the line on spending rather than raise taxes to support state programs (25%).

“Of course, most candidates for governor or any other office claim they’ll get the budget under control and avoid new taxes,” said Woolley. “Many in the public seem pleasantly surprised that someone stuck to it.”






3 months later, New Jersey still likes the guy.

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Chris is soooo unpopular!

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1691.

Christie gets a 53 - 39 percent job approval rating

In today's survey, approval is 87 - 9 percent among Republicans and 54 - 37 percent among independent voters while Democrats disapprove 64 - 25 percent. Men approve 60 - 34 percent while women approve 47 - 43 percent.

His overall job approval holds just above 50 percent and 55 percent of New Jerseyans like him personally," Carroll said.

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It's been turning for months now.



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1711

New Jersey voters approve 55 - 38 percent of the job Christie is doing as governor, compared to his all-time high of 58 - 38 percent October 12. Approval is 62 - 32 percent among men and 49 - 44 percent among women.

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That 38% that disapprove of Christie seems suspiciously close to the percent of New Jersey residents who are on welfare, food stamps, Section 8, are menbers of the teacher's union, or are state employees or in some way depend on the government for their livelihoods.

The Abbott districts that steal state funds from the suburbs consist of about 20% of the population.

New Jersey has roughly 3.9 million employed, and 625k employed in the public sector. There's the other 16%.

There's a tad of overlap, and some random haters, but the rest of the state loves the Big Dog.

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That 38% that disapprove of Christie seems suspiciously close to the percent of New Jersey residents who are on welfare, food stamps, Section 8, are menbers of the teacher's union, or are state employees or in some way depend on the government for their livelihoods.

The Abbott districts that steal state funds from the suburbs consist of about 20% of the population.

New Jersey has roughly 3.9 million employed, and 625k employed in the public sector. There's the other 16%.

There's a tad of overlap, and some random haters, but the rest of the state loves the Big Dog.

And of course those are just little people to be disregarded in the relentless march of livin da affluent suburbanite lyfe, ne~?

Seriously, it's not 'stealing state funds from the suburbs' if you actually recognize that both the suburbs and the Abbott districts are part of the whole interlocking web of existences called the State of New Jersey, as both the State of New Jersey and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, for example, are part of the United States of America.

Well, if suburban voters thought so, they would have voted for legislators to implement a program like the Abbott program, and they certainly would not have made Chris Christie Governor of New Jersey.

But no state legislature even in Massachusetts or New Jersey is willing to openly support such a rancid confiscation of wealth to that extreme. Hence of course it was forced upon the public by unaccountable judges.

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Massachusetts doesn't feel the need to do court-ordered rigamaroles like the Abbott program because the citizenry of Massachusetts is somewhat more reasonable than that of New Jersey about taxation and what taxes are needed to fund desired programs in general, and there's less outright hatred by people in the affluent suburbs of anywhere that is not an affluent suburb (although that's also because comparatively less of the population lives in affluent suburbs). Then again, we use sales and luxury rather than property taxes for the most part.

Let me guess: You're not a property tax payer. Massachusetts redistributes in a way similar to New Jersey, in a way that generates similar levels of upset. I'm just fortunate that I live in one of those towns that gets state aid -- helps keep my own property taxes in check ($4,000+ per year).

Education dollars spent per student are far lower in Massachusetts of course.

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Massachusetts doesn't feel the need to do court-ordered rigamaroles like the Abbott program because the citizenry of Massachusetts is somewhat more reasonable than that of New Jersey about taxation and what taxes are needed to fund desired programs in general, and there's less outright hatred by people in the affluent suburbs of anywhere that is not an affluent suburb (although that's also because comparatively less of the population lives in affluent suburbs). Then again, we use sales and luxury rather than property taxes for the most part.

Let me guess: You're not a property tax payer. Massachusetts redistributes in a way similar to New Jersey, in a way that generates similar levels of upset. I'm just fortunate that I live in one of those towns that gets state aid -- helps keep my own property taxes in check ($4,000+ per year).

Education dollars spent per student are far lower in Massachusetts of course.

Not true, they're largely identical.

2009 spending per student in NJ: $13,601
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/02/nj_school_report_card_annual.html

2010 spending per student in MA: $13,055
http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/state_report/ppx.aspx

Interesting...census bureau data says otherwise. I suspect this might be why for the NJ number. I don't know how they calculate the Massachusetts number.

1) The Comparative Cost Per Pupil represents comparisons with districts of similar budget type. The components that comprise the comparative cost per pupil are as follows: classroom instructional costs; support services (attendance and social work, health services, guidance office, child study team, library and other educational media); administrative costs (general administration, school administration, business administration, and improvement of instruction); operations/maintenance of plant; food services, and extracurricular costs. The total of these expenditures is divided by the average daily enrollment to calculate a total comparative cost per pupil.

(2) Second is the Total Cost Per Pupil which, in addition to all of the costs listed above for the comparative cost, includes costs for tuition expenditures and payments to preschool providers; transportation; other current expenses (lease purchase interest, residential costs, and judgments against schools); equipment; facilities/acquisition; and restricted expenses less nonpublic services and adult schools. The total of these expenditures is divided by the average daily enrollment, combined with all students sent out of the district as reported on the ASSA (annual state aid collection) to calculate a total cost per pupil.



The data I have comes from here and is on table 8.

http://www.census.gov/govs/school/

MAL $14118
NJ: $16271

Coming in at a bargain deal is Utah at less than half these.

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That 38% that disapprove of Christie seems suspiciously close to the percent of New Jersey residents who are on welfare, food stamps, Section 8, are menbers of the teacher's union, or are state employees or in some way depend on the government for their livelihoods.

http://www.politickernj.com/55490/fdu-poll-christie-job-approval-54

Governor Chris Christie continues to ride high in public approval, putting up his best numbers since March of 2009, just weeks after he took office. According to the most recent statewide survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind™, 54% of New Jersey voters approve of the job Christie is doing, while 34% disapprove, and 12% are mixed or not sure. Moreover, half of voters (50%) rate the job he has been doing as “good” or “excellent.”

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http://www.politickernj.com/62253/christies-approval-rating-78-percent-according-new-poll

With less than 10 months until voters head to the polls to choose the governor to lead the state for the next four years, Gov. Chris Christie has a 78 percent approval rating, according to a new poll.

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http://blogs.app.com/capitolquickies/2013/02/12/spokesman-buono-not-wearing-seatbelt-during-accident/

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Barbara Buono was not wearing a seatbelt when the car she was a passenger in was involved in an accident Monday night.

Buono’s campaign staff, in an emailed statement this morning, said the state senator suffered a small cut to her forehead and was taken to the hospital as a precautionary measure.

“There she was treated and released shortly thereafter,” said campaign spokesman David Turner in the email. “She is back at work this morning.”

She was riding in the back seat of the car and was not wearing a seatbelt, Turner said.




Didn't learn from Corzine I suppose.

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That 38% that disapprove of Christie seems suspiciously close to the percent of New Jersey residents who are on welfare, food stamps, Section 8, are menbers of the teacher's union, or are state employees or in some way depend on the government for their livelihoods.

The Abbott districts that steal state funds from the suburbs consist of about 20% of the population.

New Jersey has roughly 3.9 million employed, and 625k employed in the public sector. There's the other 16%.

There's a tad of overlap, and some random haters, but the rest of the state loves the Big Dog.

Wow. Buono isn't even collecting the 36%

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David Stahl, the mayor of East Brunswick (a suburban Democratic town of 46,000 in the suburban-and-urban Democratic county of Middlesex) has switched parties from Democrat to Republican. Stahl will seek election to the heavily Democratic 18th Senate district, currently held by gubernatorial candidate Barbara Buono.

In 2009, Christie carried Middlesex county in something of an upset, though arguably, given trends elsewhere in the state, you could say a statewide Republican now needs blue collar Middlesex to win. Republican candidates did surprisingly well here in 2009: Assemblyman Diegnan (D) won by a relatively narrow 26,317 to 24,091 margin against nobody Joe Sinagra (R). It's the most Republican of the Middlesex Senate districts (read: most suburban), and is theoretically winnable in a Christie-dominated GOP wave election.

It wasn't close in 2007 or 2011, but it is worth noting that Republicans picked up this seat in the 1991 anti-Florio superwave, with the incumbent winning upset re-election campaigns in 1993 and 1997.

1991 was the last time prior to 2009 that a Republican won Middlesex County. As it stands Christie won the 18th district by a reasonable margin; outside of 1 and 3 it was one of this best Dem held districts.