Italian Local Elections 2011

[SPQR]

Only sad news is that the PD is still a joke and Bersani has the charisma of a wet pizza. But who cares ? The left has proven it can win (and win even better) without the PD's lead.

PD's campaign was really good in my opinion,and while Bersani is not charismatic,he is really competent (and I didn't vote for him in the primary)
Now I'll really go out and celebrate

[Antonio the Sixth]

Only sad news is that the PD is still a joke and Bersani has the charisma of a wet pizza. But who cares ? The left has proven it can win (and win even better) without the PD's lead.

PD's campaign was really good in my opinion,and while Bersani is not charismatic,he is really competent (and I didn't vote for him in the primary)
Now I'll really go out and celebrate

Well, enjoy ! I'll be celebrating with you with my thoughts.

You might be right, but note how today's biggest victories were first of all vicotries of the alternative left (Pisapia from SEL, De Magistris from IdV). The reason they won was, above all, that they managed to impose themselves against the PD.

That's why I feel Vendola would be a far stronger leader for the left-wing coalition than Bersani.

[Keystone Phil]

wasn't naples supposed to be close? I know it's a very liberal city, but the right was overperfoming there, am I right??

I'll echo the other comments here: Naples is very, very far from being a "very liberal" city. The city and region are very receptive to the Right and was (I guess it's appropriate to use "was" now) a Berlusconi stronghold. That makes the PdL loss even more embarrassing. This was one of those sure pick ups just a few weeks ago. Instead, it was a loss and wasn't even close. What an absolutely disastrous result.

Milan is obviously another catastrophe with Trieste and Cagliari just adding insult to injury. Another win for the Berlusconi haters that I'm surprised wasn't mentioned here: they picked up the town where his "Bunga Bunga" mansion is located.

Naturally, some friends of mine that are PdL loyalists over there find a way to blame this on Fini/FLI and downplay the losses. I guess some people will never learn. Anyway, the little bit of good news here is that these weren't actually PD wins. However, it does raise my concerns about Vendola. If they could get Pisapia elected with 55% in Milan, maybe those of us on the Right should stop rooting for Vendola to be the Left's standard bearer next time around. 

[Niemeyerite]

OK, sorry everybody. I thought Naples was a liberal (by America standards) or leftist city. I was wrong, then. Thanks for the information

[TheGlobalizer]

So, what's the analysis of the results?  I get that most of y'all are happy, but what seems to have played into this?  Is it Berlusconi, the pre-austerity program, or what?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, what's the analysis of the results?  I get that most of y'all are happy, but what seems to have played into this?  Is it Berlusconi, the pre-austerity program, or what?

Above all, people were simply fed up of Berlusconi and the PdL's behaviour. In the last years (mostly, since Fini has left), the right has reached an unseen level of nastiness, hatred and fearmongering. Let's even forget Berlusconi's personal bravados (calling out communist judges, jokes about gays, etc... but also when he said parents shouldn't send their children to school because it's a totalitarian institution). We had slanders and fake scandals thrown out to kill Fini. We had a non-confidence motion failing for a couple of votes, thanks to the "purchase" of a few opposition MPs. We had a new judicial fix passing for the same reason. We had a sitting minister who insulted the President of the Parliament (Fini, incidentally) telling him to  himself during a session of the Parliament. We had Europe almost destroyed because of a few thousand Libyan refugees. Finally, we had an obnoxious smear campaign from the right, once Milan started to appear in danger, with posters warning voters "if you vote Pisapia Milan will be full of Gypises, Gays and Muslims". Yesterday's results aren't only an unseen result for the left : they are above all a victory of intelligence over those who rely on the people's stupidity to win elections.

[TheGlobalizer]

Above all, people were simply fed up of Berlusconi and the PdL's behaviour. In the last years (mostly, since Fini has left), the right has reached an unseen level of nastiness, hatred and fearmongering. Let's even forget Berlusconi's personal bravados (calling out communist judges, jokes about gays, etc... but also when he said parents shouldn't send their children to school because it's a totalitarian institution). We had slanders and fake scandals thrown out to kill Fini. We had a non-confidence motion failing for a couple of votes, thanks to the "purchase" of a few opposition MPs. We had a new judicial fix passing for the same reason. We had a sitting minister who insulted the President of the Parliament (Fini, incidentally) telling him to  himself during a session of the Parliament. We had Europe almost destroyed because of a few thousand Libyan refugees. Finally, we had an obnoxious smear campaign from the right, once Milan started to appear in danger, with posters warning voters "if you vote Pisapia Milan will be full of Gypises, Gays and Muslims". Yesterday's results aren't only an unseen result for the left : they are above all a victory of intelligence over those who rely on the people's stupidity to win elections.

Thanks.  It's always odd to me how Italian elections are, even more than the US, about party (coalition) politics more than about substance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Above all, people were simply fed up of Berlusconi and the PdL's behaviour. In the last years (mostly, since Fini has left), the right has reached an unseen level of nastiness, hatred and fearmongering. Let's even forget Berlusconi's personal bravados (calling out communist judges, jokes about gays, etc... but also when he said parents shouldn't send their children to school because it's a totalitarian institution). We had slanders and fake scandals thrown out to kill Fini. We had a non-confidence motion failing for a couple of votes, thanks to the "purchase" of a few opposition MPs. We had a new judicial fix passing for the same reason. We had a sitting minister who insulted the President of the Parliament (Fini, incidentally) telling him to  himself during a session of the Parliament. We had Europe almost destroyed because of a few thousand Libyan refugees. Finally, we had an obnoxious smear campaign from the right, once Milan started to appear in danger, with posters warning voters "if you vote Pisapia Milan will be full of Gypises, Gays and Muslims". Yesterday's results aren't only an unseen result for the left : they are above all a victory of intelligence over those who rely on the people's stupidity to win elections.

Thanks.  It's always odd to me how Italian elections are, even more than the US, about party (coalition) politics more than about substance.

Italian politics since 1994 have been exclusively about Berlusconi, which is a very sad thing because it led the left to think it could win without talking about substance (it did win, twice, but it didn't last). But this seems to be slowly changing.

[TheGlobalizer]

Italian politics since 1994 have been exclusively about Berlusconi, which is a very sad thing because it led the left to think it could win without talking about substance (it did win, twice, but it didn't last). But this seems to be slowly changing.

I hope so; it was rather disappointing when I was there, it seemed like it was all about Berlusconi/contra Berlusconi.  There was discussion of issues, but some of it was so far afield (like a fixation on nuclear power) that the issues seemed disconnected from elections altogether.  There was virtually no discussion of economics whatsoever, which fits the current state of Italian debt.  (I had to come home to the US to hear about Italian economic strategies.)

I'm disappointed in Italy's right particularly, as the fixation on Berlusconi gives me the Mussolini heebie-jeebies and their platform can be rather incoherent at times.  It's a shame, because they seem to have some decent ministers, but they're just left with a series of Italian Idol elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here is an example of why policies are almost never discussed in Italy. Even the confindustria (the patronate's union) has expressed strong oppositions against Berlusconi's policies and Montezemolo, a famous CEO, has recently been thought as a potential PD candidate.

You see where the problem lays ? In every European country, the patronate backs the right, with more or less enthusiasm. Italy is an exception, because every person with a brain (patrons comprised) opposes Berlusconi. What is called "left" in Italy isn't the left : it is the association of all those, left or right, who opposes Berlusconi. Inside the so-called left, there are people with different views on almost every issue, united only by a common hatred of Berlusconi. Because he is, currently, the only polarizing issue of Italian politics.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm disappointed in Italy's right particularly, as the fixation on Berlusconi gives me the Mussolini heebie-jeebies and their platform can be rather incoherent at times. 

And it's going to really hurt them when Berlusconi is gone. So many of them will be confused as to how to move forward. Yet another reason why I now back Fini/FLI more than the PdL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm disappointed in Italy's right particularly, as the fixation on Berlusconi gives me the Mussolini heebie-jeebies and their platform can be rather incoherent at times. 

And it's going to really hurt them when Berlusconi is gone. So many of them will be confused as to how to move forward. Yet another reason why I now back Fini/FLI more than the PdL.

Fini's FLI was a nice attempt to form a genuine right-wing party in the European fashion. Sadly, he should have known that such a project was impossible in Italy's political situation.

[Iannis]

Italian politics since 1994 have been exclusively about Berlusconi, which is a very sad thing because it led the left to think it could win without talking about substance (it did win, twice, but it didn't last). But this seems to be slowly changing.

I hope so; it was rather disappointing when I was there, it seemed like it was all about Berlusconi/contra Berlusconi.  There was discussion of issues, but some of it was so far afield (like a fixation on nuclear power) that the issues seemed disconnected from elections altogether.  There was virtually no discussion of economics whatsoever, which fits the current state of Italian debt.  (I had to come home to the US to hear about Italian economic strategies.)

I'm disappointed in Italy's right particularly, as the fixation on Berlusconi gives me the Mussolini heebie-jeebies and their platform can be rather incoherent at times.  It's a shame, because they seem to have some decent ministers, but they're just left with a series of Italian Idol elections.

Berlusconi is used as an alibi not to face the important issues you name: even when conservative reform like the university and school reform and the cut of fiscal spending that has been done, the opposition approached them not as a normal opposition contrasting conservative measures, but in the same Berlusconi yes/Berlusocni no pattern.
Yet different position exist, and like in the rest of Europe, the right is in favour and implemented measures like spending cuts (as Cameron i.e),  later retirement reforms, introduction of private subjects in universities, cuts of public employment. Not surprisingly the electoral distribution of votes is very similar to the one of the other countries in the western world, with the right voted more in the countryside, and by little retailers, little entreupeneurs, religious people, etc, so the argument that "there's no right and no left" and just "honest people from right and left" against Berlusconi is just a propaganda argument, that can be legitimate, ma not serious, surely, and is very often just functional to the purpose of not approaching real economic problems.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sure, when they have absolutely nothing else to do, the PdL happens to do a couple of actual reforms sometimes (horrible reforms IMO, but fair enough). Most of the time however, the legislative agenda is subordinated to Berlusconi's judicial agenda.

[TheGlobalizer]

Berlusconi is used as an alibi not to face the important issues you name: even when conservative reform like the university and school reform and the cut of fiscal spending that has been done, the opposition approached them not as a normal opposition contrasting conservative measures, but in the same Berlusconi yes/Berlusocni no pattern.
Yet different position exist, and like in the rest of Europe, the right is in favour and implemented measures like spending cuts (as Cameron i.e),  later retirement reforms, introduction of private subjects in universities, cuts of public employment. Not surprisingly the electoral distribution of votes is very similar to the one of the other countries in the western world, with the right voted more in the countryside, and by little retailers, little entreupeneurs, religious people, etc, so the argument that "there's no right and no left" and just "honest people from right and left" against Berlusconi is just a propaganda argument, that can be legitimate, ma not serious, surely, and is very often just functional to the purpose of not approaching real economic problems.

In the long term, I'm hoping that Berlusconi can be a lesson for the Italian people.  I noticed a much higher trust in the performance of government in Italy than here in the US, and that seemed to lead to a presumption that government could be solution to every problem and that any reduction in government is working to harm the most innocent and helpless (or their buddy with the cushy 20-hour-per-week job in the local Office of Paper-Shuffling).  There didn't seem to be an understanding of the burden of taxation on the economy, or of the larger costs to the society of incurring national debt and reduced credit-worthiness scores.

It's especially interesting to me, given that Italians seem to have such an aversion to incurring debt on their own ledgers, that government debt is so disregarded.  Hat tip to the Berlusconi government for at least taking some steps to proactively address deficits and long-term liabilities, but he may do more good for Italy by shining a light on the abuses of power by government officials (especially Berlusconi himself).

Thus far, however, Italians seem to be taking much of it in stride.  It'll be interesting to see if these election results carry over into future elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Berlusconi was in power in 1994, 2001-2006 and since 2008. The left has been in power in 1996-2001 and 2006-2008.

Yeah, the Berlusconi governments have done an amazing job with deficits.

[TheGlobalizer]

Berlusconi was in power in 1994, 2001-2006 and since 2008. The left has been in power in 1996-2001 and 2006-2008.

Yeah, the Berlusconi governments have done an amazing job with deficits.

1994 looks ugly, but I think you'll agree that 2008 to present is affected by global macroeconomic factors.  That said, we're getting a little beyond my knowledge base, and I'm not going to carry water for Berlusconi.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, notice how all the deficits of the period 2001-2006 are constantly higher than those of 1997-2000, and how it goes downwards again since 2006.

The truth is that Prodi's "tax n spend librul" government has made itself unpopular by trying to fix the deficit caused by "good economic manager" Berlusconi.

[Iannis]

Berlusconi was in power in 1994, 2001-2006 and since 2008. The left has been in power in 1996-2001 and 2006-2008.

Yeah, the Berlusconi governments have done an amazing job with deficits.

1994 looks ugly, but I think you'll agree that 2008 to present is affected by global macroeconomic factors.  That said, we're getting a little beyond my knowledge base, and I'm not going to carry water for Berlusconi.

Since, as you kno well, italian mentality is opposit to serious sendig cuts, thinking that only state intervention is good for them, and "private" is a bad ord not to be pronounced, the deficit/GDP rare till last year heavily depended on the GDP growth, which is depending in most factors by international trends, that's why you can see some volatility in deficit, only last year despite a big fall of GDP for the international crisis, big spending cuts were pursued, without any bail-out for banks, so to have one of the lowest deficit/GDP rate in europe, 4,7%

[SPQR]

Italian politics since 1994 have been exclusively about Berlusconi, which is a very sad thing because it led the left to think it could win without talking about substance (it did win, twice, but it didn't last). But this seems to be slowly changing.

I hope so; it was rather disappointing when I was there, it seemed like it was all about Berlusconi/contra Berlusconi.  There was discussion of issues, but some of it was so far afield (like a fixation on nuclear power) that the issues seemed disconnected from elections altogether.  There was virtually no discussion of economics whatsoever, which fits the current state of Italian debt.  (I had to come home to the US to hear about Italian economic strategies.)

I'm disappointed in Italy's right particularly, as the fixation on Berlusconi gives me the Mussolini heebie-jeebies and their platform can be rather incoherent at times.  It's a shame, because they seem to have some decent ministers, but they're just left with a series of Italian Idol elections.

Berlusconi is used as an alibi not to face the important issues you name: even when conservative reform like the university and school reform and the cut of fiscal spending that has been done, the opposition approached them not as a normal opposition contrasting conservative measures, but in the same Berlusconi yes/Berlusocni no pattern.
Yet different position exist, and like in the rest of Europe, the right is in favour and implemented measures like spending cuts (as Cameron i.e),  later retirement reforms, introduction of private subjects in universities, cuts of public employment. Not surprisingly the electoral distribution of votes is very similar to the one of the other countries in the western world, with the right voted more in the countryside, and by little retailers, little entreupeneurs, religious people, etc, so the argument that "there's no right and no left" and just "honest people from right and left" against Berlusconi is just a propaganda argument, that can be legitimate, ma not serious, surely, and is very often just functional to the purpose of not approaching real economic problems.

The same real economic problems that Berlusconi has been ignoring for the last years?
Oh yes,ecause surely Italy's problem is the "communist judges' dictatorship". Let's bring the country forward with a new judicial reform! Which is like the 15th announced reform of this kind since 1994,how odd.
If Berlusconi had spent 1/100th of the time he has spent on laws ad personam on laws concerning the economy,maybe Italy would be in a better position worldwide.
Don't try and say that PdL is just like any other right-wing party,it's not. It's a coalition made up of clowns who have to accept anything that Berlusconi orders,or they are out (Fini and FLI). They have no ideology;surely not the "European Liberal" one that Berlusconi has been trying to attach to himself,since he is the biggest protector of the lobbies in Italy.

[Iannis]

Italian politics since 1994 have been exclusively about Berlusconi, which is a very sad thing because it led the left to think it could win without talking about substance (it did win, twice, but it didn't last). But this seems to be slowly changing.

I hope so; it was rather disappointing when I was there, it seemed like it was all about Berlusconi/contra Berlusconi.  There was discussion of issues, but some of it was so far afield (like a fixation on nuclear power) that the issues seemed disconnected from elections altogether.  There was virtually no discussion of economics whatsoever, which fits the current state of Italian debt.  (I had to come home to the US to hear about Italian economic strategies.)

I'm disappointed in Italy's right particularly, as the fixation on Berlusconi gives me the Mussolini heebie-jeebies and their platform can be rather incoherent at times.  It's a shame, because they seem to have some decent ministers, but they're just left with a series of Italian Idol elections.

Berlusconi is used as an alibi not to face the important issues you name: even when conservative reform like the university and school reform and the cut of fiscal spending that has been done, the opposition approached them not as a normal opposition contrasting conservative measures, but in the same Berlusconi yes/Berlusocni no pattern.
Yet different position exist, and like in the rest of Europe, the right is in favour and implemented measures like spending cuts (as Cameron i.e),  later retirement reforms, introduction of private subjects in universities, cuts of public employment. Not surprisingly the electoral distribution of votes is very similar to the one of the other countries in the western world, with the right voted more in the countryside, and by little retailers, little entreupeneurs, religious people, etc, so the argument that "there's no right and no left" and just "honest people from right and left" against Berlusconi is just a propaganda argument, that can be legitimate, ma not serious, surely, and is very often just functional to the purpose of not approaching real economic problems.

The same real economic problems that Berlusconi has been ignoring for the last years?
Oh yes,ecause surely Italy's problem is the "communist judges' dictatorship". Let's bring the country forward with a new judicial reform! Which is like the 15th announced reform of this kind since 1994,how odd.
If Berlusconi had spent 1/100th of the time he has spent on laws ad personam on laws concerning the economy,maybe Italy would be in a better position worldwide.
Don't try and say that PdL is just like any other right-wing party,it's not. It's a coalition made up of clowns who have to accept anything that Berlusconi orders,or they are out (Fini and FLI). They have no ideology;surely not the "European Liberal" one that Berlusconi has been trying to attach to himself,since he is the biggest protector of the lobbies in Italy.

PDL is what electorate decides it is, and not casually the electorate profile is exactly the same of the center-right conservative electorate all over Europe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it?

[SPQR]

Italian politics since 1994 have been exclusively about Berlusconi, which is a very sad thing because it led the left to think it could win without talking about substance (it did win, twice, but it didn't last). But this seems to be slowly changing.

I hope so; it was rather disappointing when I was there, it seemed like it was all about Berlusconi/contra Berlusconi.  There was discussion of issues, but some of it was so far afield (like a fixation on nuclear power) that the issues seemed disconnected from elections altogether.  There was virtually no discussion of economics whatsoever, which fits the current state of Italian debt.  (I had to come home to the US to hear about Italian economic strategies.)

I'm disappointed in Italy's right particularly, as the fixation on Berlusconi gives me the Mussolini heebie-jeebies and their platform can be rather incoherent at times.  It's a shame, because they seem to have some decent ministers, but they're just left with a series of Italian Idol elections.

Berlusconi is used as an alibi not to face the important issues you name: even when conservative reform like the university and school reform and the cut of fiscal spending that has been done, the opposition approached them not as a normal opposition contrasting conservative measures, but in the same Berlusconi yes/Berlusocni no pattern.
Yet different position exist, and like in the rest of Europe, the right is in favour and implemented measures like spending cuts (as Cameron i.e),  later retirement reforms, introduction of private subjects in universities, cuts of public employment. Not surprisingly the electoral distribution of votes is very similar to the one of the other countries in the western world, with the right voted more in the countryside, and by little retailers, little entreupeneurs, religious people, etc, so the argument that "there's no right and no left" and just "honest people from right and left" against Berlusconi is just a propaganda argument, that can be legitimate, ma not serious, surely, and is very often just functional to the purpose of not approaching real economic problems.

The same real economic problems that Berlusconi has been ignoring for the last years?
Oh yes,ecause surely Italy's problem is the "communist judges' dictatorship". Let's bring the country forward with a new judicial reform! Which is like the 15th announced reform of this kind since 1994,how odd.
If Berlusconi had spent 1/100th of the time he has spent on laws ad personam on laws concerning the economy,maybe Italy would be in a better position worldwide.
Don't try and say that PdL is just like any other right-wing party,it's not. It's a coalition made up of clowns who have to accept anything that Berlusconi orders,or they are out (Fini and FLI). They have no ideology;surely not the "European Liberal" one that Berlusconi has been trying to attach to himself,since he is the biggest protector of the lobbies in Italy.

PDL is what electorate decides it is, and not casually the electorate profile is exactly the same of the center-right conservative electorate all over Europe.

Media's power is much stronger on those groups,clearly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If someone's interested, here are a few numbers about last moday's election :


Provincials

There were 11 provinces up. The results were :

Left : 7 (Mantova, Pavia, Gorizia, Trieste, Ravenna, Lucca, Macerata)
Right : 4 (Vercelli, Treviso, Campobasso, Reggio Calabria)

Interestingly, these figures are unchanged from 2006 : the left picked up Pavia and Macerata, but at the same time the right managed to take Campobasso and Reggio Calabria. That's an interesting factoid that wasn't much talked about. At the same time, the left almost took Vercelli with 49.1% in the runoff.


Municipals - Overall numbers

There were around 1000 municipalities up, but I don't have the global numbers and they probably wouldn't mean much anyways. Among those, 30 were provincial capitals :

Left : 22 (+2) (Novara, Torino, Milano, Pordenone, Trieste, Savona, Bologna, Ravenna, Rimini, Arezzo, Grosseto, Siena, Fermo, Benevento, Napoli, Salerno, Barletta, Crotone, Cagliari, Villacidro, Carbonia, Olbia)
Right : 9 (-1) (Varese, Rovigo, Latina, Caserta, Catanzaro, Cosenza, Reggio Calabria, Ragusa, Iglesias)

The left picked up Novara, Milano, Trieste, Fermo, Cagliari and Olbia from the right, as well as Villacidro which was held by an apolitical mayor. The right picked Rovigo, Caserta, Catanzaro, Cosenza and Iglesias from the left. Again, the figures remain globally the same they were in 2006 (remember that 2006 was already a left-wing landslide). Interestingly though, the right held on only 4 of the 10 municipalities it held at the time.

Among regional capitals (in bold), the result is 6 left and 1 right (it was of 4/3 in 2006).


Detailed results for main cities (Milano, Napoli, etc) coming ASAP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Milano (Milan)


List results

Grouping lists by coalitions :
Coalition for Pisapia (PD+SEL+PRC+IdV+Pan/Bon+V+Civ) : 47.26%, 29 seats
Coalition for Moratti (PdL+Lega+Civ+Oth) : 43.28%, 16 seats
Coalition for Palmeri (UDC+Civ) : 4.59%
Coalition for Calise (M5S) : 3.43%
Other : 1.44%

By single list :
PdL : 28.74%, 11 seats
PD : 28.63%, 20 seats
Lega : 9.63%, 4 seats
SEL : 4.7%, 3 seats
Civical list for Pisapia : 3.86%, 2 seats
Mov. 5S : 3.43%
PRC : 3.1%, 2 seats
Civical list for Palmeri : 2.68%
IdV : 2.54%, 1 seat
Civical list for Moratti : 2.43%, 1 seat
UDC : 1.89%
Pannella-Bonino : 1.71%, 1 seat
Greens : 1.37%
Civical list for Pisapia : 1.33%
Other lists for Moratti : 2.45%
Other : 1.44%

Turnout (counting invalid votes as abstention) : 59.77%

Vote repartition :


Seats repartition :



Mayoral election

Pisapia : 48.05% => 55.11% ELECTED
Moratti : 41.59% => 44.89%
Palmeri : 5.55%
Calise : 3.23%
Others : 1.58%

Turnout : 65.98% => 66.59%