Italian Local Elections 2011

[Antonio the Sixth]

Praying for the left to take Milan...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've not followed the trends closely (because that would mean depression for me), but Berluscock is only slightly unpopular in these days (after all, poor guy is the victim of a conspiracy of communist judges). While the Lega is still at record highs. If the general elections were held today, the center-left would only narrowly prevail, despite all the vote splitting from Fini, Casini, and all the useless guys.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, if the right loses Milan this will be certainly a good election. But I've learnt from Italian politics that hope is often followed by depression ("prima illuso, poi deluso", we say). So, let's see.

Probably one of the few countries (with the US ) where I'd vote for the left without great hesitation...

That's good to hear. Why don't you get rid of ths horrendous blue avatar, so ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If someone wants to follow the results : http://amministrative.interno.it/

Naples
Milan
Turin


Seems to be pretty awesome numbers for the left. Let's hope they hold on until the runoff.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also in Naples, things don't seem as safe for the right. The main right-wing candidate won 39%, but the two left-wing candidates got 47% in total. So, let's see.

And yeah, it was a great night, but I don't want to be too hopeful because there are still 2 weeks to go to the runoff.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will the results be in and where can I get them.  I cannot stand Berlusconi and if there was a centrist option or even slightly left of centre, I would hope they would win, but considering the fiscal situation if it also applies to municipalities, it seems like the left winning would be a bad thing.

...

Please. Stop. Posting. There.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know this outcome was more than possible, but stil :

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah !


Pisapia with 55% ? De Magistris with 65% ? That's just too beautiful to be true ! This is a great day for Italy, it seems like people have finally waken up and that 17 years of stupidity are about to end ! I've never been so hopeful since a long time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL, Lettieri actually won a smaller percentage than in the 1st round.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Only sad news is that the PD is still a joke and Bersani has the charisma of a wet pizza. But who cares ? The left has proven it can win (and win even better) without the PD's lead.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Only sad news is that the PD is still a joke and Bersani has the charisma of a wet pizza. But who cares ? The left has proven it can win (and win even better) without the PD's lead.

PD's campaign was really good in my opinion,and while Bersani is not charismatic,he is really competent (and I didn't vote for him in the primary)
Now I'll really go out and celebrate

Well, enjoy ! I'll be celebrating with you with my thoughts.

You might be right, but note how today's biggest victories were first of all vicotries of the alternative left (Pisapia from SEL, De Magistris from IdV). The reason they won was, above all, that they managed to impose themselves against the PD.

That's why I feel Vendola would be a far stronger leader for the left-wing coalition than Bersani.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, what's the analysis of the results?  I get that most of y'all are happy, but what seems to have played into this?  Is it Berlusconi, the pre-austerity program, or what?

Above all, people were simply fed up of Berlusconi and the PdL's behaviour. In the last years (mostly, since Fini has left), the right has reached an unseen level of nastiness, hatred and fearmongering. Let's even forget Berlusconi's personal bravados (calling out communist judges, jokes about gays, etc... but also when he said parents shouldn't send their children to school because it's a totalitarian institution). We had slanders and fake scandals thrown out to kill Fini. We had a non-confidence motion failing for a couple of votes, thanks to the "purchase" of a few opposition MPs. We had a new judicial fix passing for the same reason. We had a sitting minister who insulted the President of the Parliament (Fini, incidentally) telling him to  himself during a session of the Parliament. We had Europe almost destroyed because of a few thousand Libyan refugees. Finally, we had an obnoxious smear campaign from the right, once Milan started to appear in danger, with posters warning voters "if you vote Pisapia Milan will be full of Gypises, Gays and Muslims". Yesterday's results aren't only an unseen result for the left : they are above all a victory of intelligence over those who rely on the people's stupidity to win elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Above all, people were simply fed up of Berlusconi and the PdL's behaviour. In the last years (mostly, since Fini has left), the right has reached an unseen level of nastiness, hatred and fearmongering. Let's even forget Berlusconi's personal bravados (calling out communist judges, jokes about gays, etc... but also when he said parents shouldn't send their children to school because it's a totalitarian institution). We had slanders and fake scandals thrown out to kill Fini. We had a non-confidence motion failing for a couple of votes, thanks to the "purchase" of a few opposition MPs. We had a new judicial fix passing for the same reason. We had a sitting minister who insulted the President of the Parliament (Fini, incidentally) telling him to  himself during a session of the Parliament. We had Europe almost destroyed because of a few thousand Libyan refugees. Finally, we had an obnoxious smear campaign from the right, once Milan started to appear in danger, with posters warning voters "if you vote Pisapia Milan will be full of Gypises, Gays and Muslims". Yesterday's results aren't only an unseen result for the left : they are above all a victory of intelligence over those who rely on the people's stupidity to win elections.

Thanks.  It's always odd to me how Italian elections are, even more than the US, about party (coalition) politics more than about substance.

Italian politics since 1994 have been exclusively about Berlusconi, which is a very sad thing because it led the left to think it could win without talking about substance (it did win, twice, but it didn't last). But this seems to be slowly changing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here is an example of why policies are almost never discussed in Italy. Even the confindustria (the patronate's union) has expressed strong oppositions against Berlusconi's policies and Montezemolo, a famous CEO, has recently been thought as a potential PD candidate.

You see where the problem lays ? In every European country, the patronate backs the right, with more or less enthusiasm. Italy is an exception, because every person with a brain (patrons comprised) opposes Berlusconi. What is called "left" in Italy isn't the left : it is the association of all those, left or right, who opposes Berlusconi. Inside the so-called left, there are people with different views on almost every issue, united only by a common hatred of Berlusconi. Because he is, currently, the only polarizing issue of Italian politics.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm disappointed in Italy's right particularly, as the fixation on Berlusconi gives me the Mussolini heebie-jeebies and their platform can be rather incoherent at times. 

And it's going to really hurt them when Berlusconi is gone. So many of them will be confused as to how to move forward. Yet another reason why I now back Fini/FLI more than the PdL.

Fini's FLI was a nice attempt to form a genuine right-wing party in the European fashion. Sadly, he should have known that such a project was impossible in Italy's political situation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sure, when they have absolutely nothing else to do, the PdL happens to do a couple of actual reforms sometimes (horrible reforms IMO, but fair enough). Most of the time however, the legislative agenda is subordinated to Berlusconi's judicial agenda.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Berlusconi was in power in 1994, 2001-2006 and since 2008. The left has been in power in 1996-2001 and 2006-2008.

Yeah, the Berlusconi governments have done an amazing job with deficits.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, notice how all the deficits of the period 2001-2006 are constantly higher than those of 1997-2000, and how it goes downwards again since 2006.

The truth is that Prodi's "tax n spend librul" government has made itself unpopular by trying to fix the deficit caused by "good economic manager" Berlusconi.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If someone's interested, here are a few numbers about last moday's election :


Provincials

There were 11 provinces up. The results were :

Left : 7 (Mantova, Pavia, Gorizia, Trieste, Ravenna, Lucca, Macerata)
Right : 4 (Vercelli, Treviso, Campobasso, Reggio Calabria)

Interestingly, these figures are unchanged from 2006 : the left picked up Pavia and Macerata, but at the same time the right managed to take Campobasso and Reggio Calabria. That's an interesting factoid that wasn't much talked about. At the same time, the left almost took Vercelli with 49.1% in the runoff.


Municipals - Overall numbers

There were around 1000 municipalities up, but I don't have the global numbers and they probably wouldn't mean much anyways. Among those, 30 were provincial capitals :

Left : 22 (+2) (Novara, Torino, Milano, Pordenone, Trieste, Savona, Bologna, Ravenna, Rimini, Arezzo, Grosseto, Siena, Fermo, Benevento, Napoli, Salerno, Barletta, Crotone, Cagliari, Villacidro, Carbonia, Olbia)
Right : 9 (-1) (Varese, Rovigo, Latina, Caserta, Catanzaro, Cosenza, Reggio Calabria, Ragusa, Iglesias)

The left picked up Novara, Milano, Trieste, Fermo, Cagliari and Olbia from the right, as well as Villacidro which was held by an apolitical mayor. The right picked Rovigo, Caserta, Catanzaro, Cosenza and Iglesias from the left. Again, the figures remain globally the same they were in 2006 (remember that 2006 was already a left-wing landslide). Interestingly though, the right held on only 4 of the 10 municipalities it held at the time.

Among regional capitals (in bold), the result is 6 left and 1 right (it was of 4/3 in 2006).


Detailed results for main cities (Milano, Napoli, etc) coming ASAP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Milano (Milan)


List results

Grouping lists by coalitions :
Coalition for Pisapia (PD+SEL+PRC+IdV+Pan/Bon+V+Civ) : 47.26%, 29 seats
Coalition for Moratti (PdL+Lega+Civ+Oth) : 43.28%, 16 seats
Coalition for Palmeri (UDC+Civ) : 4.59%
Coalition for Calise (M5S) : 3.43%
Other : 1.44%

By single list :
PdL : 28.74%, 11 seats
PD : 28.63%, 20 seats
Lega : 9.63%, 4 seats
SEL : 4.7%, 3 seats
Civical list for Pisapia : 3.86%, 2 seats
Mov. 5S : 3.43%
PRC : 3.1%, 2 seats
Civical list for Palmeri : 2.68%
IdV : 2.54%, 1 seat
Civical list for Moratti : 2.43%, 1 seat
UDC : 1.89%
Pannella-Bonino : 1.71%, 1 seat
Greens : 1.37%
Civical list for Pisapia : 1.33%
Other lists for Moratti : 2.45%
Other : 1.44%

Turnout (counting invalid votes as abstention) : 59.77%

Vote repartition :


Seats repartition :



Mayoral election

Pisapia : 48.05% => 55.11% ELECTED
Moratti : 41.59% => 44.89%
Palmeri : 5.55%
Calise : 3.23%
Others : 1.58%

Turnout : 65.98% => 66.59%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nobody seems to care, but... I like doing that, so I'll continue.


Napoli (Naples)


List results

Grouping lists by coalitions :
Coalition for Lettieri (PdL+FdS+Lib&Aut+Pop+PRI+Dest+Oth) : 43.16%, 10 seats
Coalition for Morcone (PD+SEL+Oth) : 22.68%, 4 seats
Coalition for De Magistris (IdV+PRC+Oth) : 16.72%, 29 seats
Coalition for Pasquino (UDC+FLI+API+Civ) : 11.48%, 2 seats
Coalition for Mastella (UDEUR+Oth) : 2.71%
Coalition for Fico (M5S) : 1.76%
Other : 1.49%

By single list :
PdL : 23.85%, 7 seats
PD : 16.59%, 4 seats
IdV : 8.13%, 15 seats
FdS (SLI) : 5.23%, 1 seat
UDC : 5.21%, 1 seat
Civical list for De Magistris : 4.61%, 8 seats
SEL : 3.97%
PRC : 3.66%, 6 seats
Lib & Aut : 3.58%, 1 seat
FLI : 3.37%, 1 seat
Civical list for Lettieri : 3.07%, 1 seat
UDEUR : 2.49%
Pop : 2.17%
M5S : 1.76%
Civical list for Lettieri : 1.65%
API : 1.46%
PRI : 1.46%
Civical list for Pasquino : 1.44%
Civical list for Morcone : 1.28%
Dest. : 1.11%
Other lists for Lettieri : 1.05%
Other lists for Morcone : 0.84%
Other lists for De Magistris : 0.32%
Other lists for Mastella : 0.22%
Other : 1.49%

Turnout : 50.45%

Vote repartition :


Seats repartition :



Mayoral election

Lettieri : 38.52% => 34.62% (epic fail )
De Magistris : 27.52% => 65.38% ELECTED
Morcone : 19.15%
Pasquino : 9.75%
Mastella : 2.17%
Fico : 1.38%
Others : 1.5%

Turnout : 57.38% => 49.84%

[Antonio the Sixth]

UDEUR still exists? Amazing.

In name only... Mastella the useless crook committed political suicide when they overthrew Prodi.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Once again, some retarded Grillist costs the center-left an election. Pathetic.

Anyways, the left apparently leads by almost 8 points. I'd have thought it was a bit more, but those are still good numbers.